Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Last week I had my best performance of the year, going 5-0 on my prop bets. Damien Pierce had 139 rushing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles’ elite run defense, more than doubling the number for his prop bet total. Meanwhile, Miles Sanders took advantage of an awful Houston Texans’ run defense, totaling 93 rushing yards and hitting the over on his prop bet. Furthermore, Davis Mills had a solid first-half performance but threw two interceptions in the second half, one more than needed for the over to hit. While last week was great, it’s time to keep up the hot picks for this week.
Tonight we have a matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The veteran running back has missed time this year because of a knee injury. However, he returned last week after missing the past four games, totaling 44 yards on 13 rushing attempts. Patterson was on fire before getting hurt, averaging 100.7 rushing yards over the first three games this season. Furthermore, Patterson had at least 120 rushing yards in two of those three contests. Despite the injury, the veteran has averaged 76.8 rushing yards per game this year. Meanwhile, he had 58 rushing yards in his last matchup against Carolina in 2021.
While Patterson didn’t play in the first matchup this year between these two NFC South teams, the Panthers struggled to stop the Atlanta running game. Carolina gave up 130 rushing yards to Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in the Week 8 matchup. Furthermore, they gave up a season-high 91 rushing yards and 5.7 yards per rushing attempt to Huntley in that game. More importantly, the Panthers have surrendered 1,036 rushing yards to the position this season (115.1 per game), the fourth-most in the NFL. With another week of the knee injury behind him, Patterson should have a massive performance against Carolina.
Terrace Marshall Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
After a quiet rookie year, Marshall was a non-factor to start the 2022 season. However, the second-year receiver has picked up his play since the Panthers traded away Robbie Anderson. In the three games without Anderson, Marshall has averaged 57 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, he had at least 31 receiving yards in all three games and 53 or more yards in two straight contests. More importantly, Marshall has 15 targets over the past two weeks, second-most on the team, only behind DJ Moore.
In the matchup two weeks ago against the Falcons, the former LSU receiver had the best game of his career. Marshall caught four of his nine targets for 87 receiving yards in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Falcons have arguably the worst pass defense in the league. Atlanta has surrendered 1,905 receiving yards to wide receivers this season, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, the Falcons have given up 211.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season and 276 receiving yards per game to the position over the past three weeks. Marshall might not hit 87 receiving yards again, but he should have no trouble totaling at least 40 tonight.
Marcus Mariota Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Mariota has been solid for the Falcons this season. While fantasy players hate him and Arthur Smith for making Drake London and Kyle Pitts inconsistent fantasy starters, the veteran quarterback has played well. The former Oregon star has 304 rushing yards this season, the seventh-most among quarterbacks. Furthermore, Mariota has averaged 33.8 rushing yards per game this season, rushing for 31 or more yards in four of the past five games, including 43 two weeks ago against the Panthers.
Furthermore, he has consistently played a role in Atlanta’s running game this season, totaling at least 24 rushing yards in 31 rushing yards in over half the matchups. Meanwhile, Carolina has surrendered 109 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. However, they haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks. Yet, they gave up 43 rushing yards to Mariota two weeks ago and 21 or more rushing yards to Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray this season. The veteran won’t have a massive rushing performance tonight, but he should have no trouble totaling 30 or more rushing yards.
Tommy Tremble Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Last year, the former Notre Dame tight end had only 99 receiving yards for the Panthers. While his 2022 season got off to a slow start, Tremble has carved out a role on offense since the team traded away Anderson. Over the past three weeks, the second-year tight end has averaged 19 receiving yards per game. He had at least 11 in all three games, totaling 17 or more twice. Furthermore, Tremble has averaged 13 receiving yards per game over the past seven weeks. More importantly, the young tight end has eight targets over the past two weeks, the third-most on the team during that span.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have struggled to slow down tight ends this season. Atlanta has surrendered 588 receiving yards to the position this year, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have given up 65.3 receiving yards per game this season and at least 36 yards to the position in every game. More importantly, the Falcons have allowed tight ends to average 10 yards per reception this year. Two weeks ago, Tremble caught two of his four targets for 17 yards against the Falcons. Bettors should expect a similar performance in tonight’s NFC South rematch.
Cordarrelle Patterson to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+110)
Despite missing four games with the knee injury, Patterson still leads the team with five rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, his five scrimmage touchdowns are two more than anyone else on the team. Last week the veteran running back returned after missing four weeks with a knee injury. While he had only 44 rushing yards in the game, Patterson found the end zone twice. The former first-round pick has found the end zone in all but one game this season, including three straight contests.
More importantly, the matchup is excellent for the veteran running back this week. The Panthers have surrendered 13 touchdowns to running backs this season, the most in the NFL. Last week Joe Mixon had a historic performance against Carolina, scoring five touchdowns, including four in the first half. Furthermore, last week was the second time in the past five weeks that the Panthers have surrendered two or more rushing touchdowns to running backs. For more aggressive bettors, DraftKings has a weekly special for Patterson to rush for at least 100 yards and to score a rushing touchdown at +400. It is a solid bet to make.
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