Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Last week I had my best performance in a few weeks, going 4-1 on my prop bets. Christian McCaffrey hit the over on his total scrimmage yards with 138. He also scored a touchdown, cashing two of my props. Meanwhile, George Kittle destroyed the Seattle Seahawks’ defense, totaling 93 receiving yards, nearly tripling the number on his prop bet. My only bet that didn’t hit was Marquise Goodwin over 24.5 receiving yards, as the veteran ended the game with only two receptions on five targets for 10 yards. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.
This week we have a Thursday night matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for this game.
All odds are from DraftKings and Caesars.
Zach Wilson Over 0.5 Interceptions (-205)
This season has been a crazy experience for Wilson. After the second-year quarterback missed the first three games this year with a knee injury, he was benched after the Week 11 matchup against the New England Patriots. However, an injury to Mike White will lead to Wilson making his second straight start this week. While he had arguably his best performance of the year last week against the Detroit Lions, the former BYU star had an interception. Wilson has six interceptions this year in eight games. Furthermore, he has had four interceptions over his past four contests.
While they don’t have an elite defense like the Jets, the Jaguars have created turnovers this season. They have 12 interceptions this year, the eighth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Jacksonville has had three interceptions over the past two weeks. Last week the Jaguars gave up 256 passing yards and three touchdowns to Dak Prescott but picked off the star quarterback twice. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins had both Prescott interceptions, including the game-winning 52-yard pick-six in overtime. Wilson should have some productive throws against the Jacksonville defense. However, it’s all but a guarantee that he throws at least one interception.
Trevor Lawrence Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Over the past two weeks, Lawrence has been the hottest quarterback in the NFL. The former Clemson star has 686 passing yards and seven touchdowns over the past two weeks, throwing at least 310 yards and three scores in both contests. Meanwhile, Lawrence has made an impact in the running game, totaling 28 rushing yards and a touchdown on six attempts during that span. Furthermore, he has averaged 21 rushing yards per game over the past 10 games, totaling 15 or more yards seven times. More importantly, Lawrence has averaged 23.3 rushing yards during Jacksonville’s six-game hot streak.
Defensively, the Jets have an elite unit. Yet, they do have some weaknesses. One of them is their ability to contain running quarterbacks. New York has surrendered 257 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (18.4 yards per game), the 15th-most in the NFL. However, they have surrendered 15 or more rushing yards to the position in nearly half of their games this season, including 40 or more rushing yards three times. While he isn’t at the same level of a runner as Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson, Lawrence can make plays with legs. Expect the star quarterback to have at least 15 rushing yards in this matchup between former No. 1 and No. 2 draft picks.
Garrett Wilson Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Wilson has arguably been the best rookie wide receiver this year. The former Ohio State star is averaging 69 receiving yards per game, second-most among rookies. Furthermore, Garrett Wilson is 11th in the NFL with 966 total receiving yards. More importantly, Wilson has been on fire lately. Over the past seven games, the rookie has averaged 93.1 receiving yards per game, totaling 78 or more yards in all but one game. Wilson has averaged 111.7 receiving yards per game in White’s three starts this year. Last week, he had 98 receiving yards on only four receptions with the former BYU star under center. Moreover, the rookie has at least 60 receiving yards in 57.1% of the games this year, including four straight matchups.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s defense has struggled this year. They have surrendered 2,173 receiving yards (193.8 yards per game) to wide receivers, the 16th-most in the NFL. However, the Jaguars have been awful lately. Wide receivers have totaled 168 or more receiving yards in four of the past six matchups against the Jaguars. Furthermore, they have surrendered 200 or more receiving yards to wide receivers three times this season. Last week, CeeDee Lamb had 126 receiving yards against Jacksonville, his second-highest total of the year. Wilson will have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.
Evan Engram Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The veteran tight end started the year slowly but has picked up his play lately. Over the first four weeks this year, Engram averaged only 24.8 receiving yards per game, totaling 28 or fewer yards three times. However, the former first-round pick has averaged 51.1 receiving yards over the past 10 games, totaling 55 or more receiving yards in half of those contests. More importantly, Engram has been on fire lately. Over the past two weeks, the former New York Giant has totaled 19 receptions on 25 targets for 224 receiving yards, totaling at least 62 yards in both games.
Despite a couple of poor performances over the past 10 games, Engram has become a go-to target for Lawrence. Meanwhile, the Jets have struggled to slow down opposing tight ends this season. They have given up 765 receiving yards (54.6 yards per game) to tight ends, the eighth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, New York has surrendered at least 45 receiving yards to tight ends in 57.1% of their games this season, including two of the past three contests. With Sauce Gardner and the rest of the secondary focused on stopping Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Lawrence will have to lean on his veteran tight end.
Tyler Conklin Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Last week, C.J. Uzomah was the star of New York’s tight end unit, as he had 41 receiving yards and scored two touchdowns. However, his 41 receiving yards accounted for nearly 25% of his season total. For reference, Uzomah has more games this year with seven or fewer receiving yards (six) than games with more than 18 receiving yards (three). Meanwhile, Conklin has been the top tight end for the Jets, averaging 30.4 receiving yards per game this season, the second-highest average of his career. Furthermore, he has 22 or more receiving yards in half of the games this season.
More importantly, the veteran tight end has an excellent matchup this week. The Jaguars have surrendered 825 receiving yards (58.9 yards per game) to tight ends this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have gotten destroyed by tight ends lately. Over their past five games, Jacksonville has given 82 receiving yards per game to the position, surrendering over 100 yards three times. Moreover, tight ends have totaled at least 23 receiving yards in every game against the Jaguars this season, including 65 or more yards in half of the contests. Don’t be surprised if Conklin hits the over on this prop bet before halftime.
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