Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Last week I was three yards away from going 3-2 on my prop bets. Cam Akers had rushed for 60 or more yards in two of the previous three games before last week. Yet, he had only 12 rushing attempts and 42 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders, missing the over by three yards. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs hit the over on his rushing yards despite leaving the game with a finger injury. Tutu Atwell more than doubled his receiving total (22.5), ending the game with 50 yards.
However, Josh McDaniels cost the team a win and kept two of my prop bets from cashing. Davante Adams had only seven targets and 71 receiving yards in the game after averaging 13.4 targets and 132.8 yards over the previous five weeks. Hopefully, McDaniels is back in New England this offseason, where he belongs. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.
The Thursday night matchup this week is between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for this game.
All odds are from DraftKings.
Christian McCaffrey Over 120.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)
After struggling with injuries the past few years, McCaffrey has taken back the title of the best running back in football. The superstar running back has been unstoppable since joining the 49ers. Removing the first game with his new team (where he played only 28% of snaps), McCaffrey has averaged 113.3 scrimmage yards per game. However, he has totaled at least 145 scrimmage yards in two straight contests, including 153 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Furthermore, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell won’t play this week, creating more touches for the superstar running back.
While Seattle has been the surprise team in the NFL this season, their defense has struggled. The Seahawks have surrendered 1,523 rushing yards (117.2 per game) to running backs this year, the fifth-most in the league. Furthermore, they have given up 578 receiving yards (44.5 per game) to the position, also the fifth-most in the NFL. More importantly, their defense has gotten shredded by running backs lately. Over their past four games, the Seahawks have surrendered an average of 213.5 scrimmage yards per game to running backs, giving up over 170 rushing yards per game to the position. No one should be surprised if McCaffrey totals 200 or more scrimmage yards in this game.
Tyler Lockett Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When the Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson in the offseason, everyone expected a down year from DK Metcalf, Lockett, and the passing attack. However, the opposite has happened. Metcalf (869) and Lockett (896) rank in the top 15 in receiving yards this season. The former Kansas State star has totaled 63 or more receiving yards in 61.5% of the games this year, including four of the past six contests. More importantly, he has been on fire lately. Since the bye week, Lockett has averaged 9.3 targets and 85.3 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, the veteran has an appealing matchup this week, according to PFF.
Overall the 49ers have a talented defense. Their front seven is arguably the best in the NFL. However, their secondary has struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks. San Francisco has surrendered 2,154 receiving yards to wide receivers (165.7 per game) this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. Furthermore, their struggles have gotten worse lately. Over the past four weeks, the 49ers have given up 794 receiving yards to wide receivers (198.5 per game), the third-most in the NFL during that span. All it takes is a big play or two for Lockett to hit the over on this prop bet.
George Kittle Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
With Deebo out this week, the rest of the San Francisco receiving core will need to step up. While Brandon Aiyuk will take over as the No. 1 wide receiver, expect Kittle to see a massive uptick in work. The star tight end has been quiet lately, averaging only 25.3 receiving yards per game over the past three weeks. However, he has faced some elite defenses during that span. Yet, Kittle has averaged 45.5 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 39 or more yards in nearly half of the contests. Furthermore, the veteran has averaged only four targets per game over the past three weeks. Yet, he could see twice as many targets this week against Seattle.
The Seahawks have been one of the worst teams at defending tight ends this season. They have surrendered 798 receiving yards (61.4 per game) to the position this year, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, Seattle has given up 93 targets (7.2 per game) to tight ends, the 11th-most in the league. Over the first 10 games this year, the Seahawks surrendered 40 or more receiving yards to the position eight times. Meanwhile, Kittle didn’t play in Week 2 matchup against the NFC West division rival. However, his backup, Ross Dwelley, had 38 receiving yards and a touchdown on only one target. Kittle won’t have 100 receiving yards in this game but should have no trouble totaling 40 or more.
Marquise Goodwin Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Seattle’s passing attack is led by Metcalf and Lockett. The duo has a combined 1,765 receiving yards this season, the third-most by any pair of teammates in the NFL. However, Goodwin has emerged as the clear-cut No. 3 wide receiver and a consistent part of the passing attack. The former 49er has averaged 34.3 receiving yards per game this season, his highest average in three years. More importantly, he has averaged 49.7 yards per game over the past six games, totaling 33 or more receiving yards five times. Furthermore, Goodwin had a season-high 95 receiving yards and six targets last week against the Carolina Panthers.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers this season. More importantly, the 49ers have been awful at stopping the pass lately. Over the past four contests, the NFC West division leaders have surrendered nearly 200 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they gave up 240 or more receiving yards twice during that span. With the 49ers focused on Metcalf and Lockett, all it takes is one downfield target for Goodwin to hit the over on his prop bet. Like Atwell last week, don’t be shocked if the veteran receiver doubles the yards needed to hit the over.
Christian McCaffrey to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-145)
McCaffrey has been unstoppable this season after battling injuries the past few years. The superstar running back averaged 19.7 touches per game in six games with the Panthers, totaling only three touchdowns. However, he has averaged 17.7 touches per game in his seven games with the 49ers, totaling six touchdowns with his new team. McCaffrey went from averaging a touchdown once every 39.3 touches in Carolina to once every 20.7 touches in San Francisco. Furthermore, the superstar running back has scored at least one touchdown in back-to-back games and four of the past six contests.
More importantly, his matchup this week couldn’t be more appealing. The Seahawks have surrendered 16 touchdowns to running backs this season (13 rushing and three receiving), the third-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they have given up at least one rushing touchdown to running backs in their past four games. McCaffrey to score an anytime touchdown in this game is all but a guarantee. However, more aggressive bettors should place a bet on the superstar to score two touchdowns (+380) or even three (+1600) in this game. The Seahawks have given up two touchdowns to running backs in three straight contests, including three to Josh Jacobs three weeks ago.
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