TNF Player Prop Bets: Titans vs. Packers
Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Last week I had a disappointing performance, going 2-3 on my prop bets. Terrace Marshall had only one reception in the game, but it went for 43 yards, hitting the over on his prop bet by seven yards. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota had 43 rushing yards on only three attempts but still hit the over on his prop bet. However, Cordarrelle Patterson completely flopped. He had only five rushing attempts for 18 yards, thus failing to hit the over on his rushing yards prop bet while also not scoring a touchdown. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.
For the Thursday Night Football game this week we have a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for this game between Tennessee and Green Bay.
All odds are from DraftKings
Aaron Jones Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Last week the veteran running back had 138 rushing yards in the win over the Dallas Cowboys. It was the second time in the past three games that Jones had over 130 rushing yards. However, his work in the receiving game hasn’t gone unnoticed. Jones is averaging 22.8 receiving yards per game this season, slightly down from his average last year (26.1 per game). Yet, the veteran running back has totaled 25 or more receiving yards in 40% of the games this year, including a season-high 53 receiving yards a few weeks ago against the Washington Commanders.
Defensively, the Titans have one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL. However, their pass defense has been awful. Not only have they given up the second-most passing yards this season, but Tennessee has also surrendered the 10th-most receiving yards to running backs. The Titans have given up 40.3 receiving yards per game to running backs this year, but they have been awful at stopping pass-catching running backs lately. Tennessee has surrendered 136 receiving yards to running backs over the past two weeks, the most in the NFL by 45 yards. While Jones might struggle on the ground, expect him to have an impact in the passing game.
Ryan Tannehill Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-275)
While the payout is far from ideal, this prop bet is all but a guarantee to hit. Tennessee’s passing attack has been inconsistent all year long. However, Tannehill is averaging 1.1 passing touchdowns per game this season, throwing at least one in 71.4% of his contests. More importantly, the veteran quarterback had two passing touchdowns last week against an elite Denver Broncos pass defense. Furthermore, he has two passing touchdowns in two of the past four contests. With the return of Treylon Burks, Tannehill has his top-two pass catchers on the field.
The Green Bay defense is a talented unit on paper. However, they have gotten destroyed by injuries over the past few weeks. Star edge rusher Rashan Gary and second-year cornerback Eric Stokes are out for the year because of injuries. Meanwhile, veterans Rasul Douglas and Preston Smith have been limited in practice this week. More importantly, the Packers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns over the past four weeks, the most in the NFL. They have given up at least two passing touchdowns in four straight games and half of their contests this season. Tannehill won’t have a three touchdowns performance, but he should have no trouble throwing at least one in this game.
Robert Tonyan Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Coming off a torn ACL he suffered last year, the Packers weren’t sure if Tonyan would be ready to play in Week 1. However, the veteran tight end hasn’t missed a game this season. While the Green Bay passing attack has struggled this year, Tonyan remains a consistent weapon for Aaron Rodgers. He is averaging 32.3 receiving yards per game, the second-highest average in his career. More importantly, the veteran tight end has 28 or more receiving yards in 60% of the games this season, including four of the past five contests.
Meanwhile, the Titans have one of the worst pass-defense units in the NFL. Not only have they given up the second-most passing yards this season, but Tennessee has surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. They are giving up 64.7 receiving yards per game to the position, surrendering 150 or more yards to tight ends twice this year. More importantly, opposing tight ends have averaged 87 receiving yards per game against the Titans over the past two weeks, the second-most in the NFL. Tonyan likely won’t end the game with 87 receiving yards, but the veteran tight end should have 28 or more yards before the start of the fourth quarter.
Derrick Henry Over 98.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Last week Henry had only 53 rushing yards in the win over the Broncos. However, Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The superstar running back had at least 82 rushing yards in all but one of his previous eight games. More importantly, Henry is second in the NFL with 923 rushing yards, averaging 102.6 rushing yards per contest. He totaled at least 102 rushing yards in five straight games before last week’s matchup against the Broncos. Furthermore, the superstar running back had at least 102 rushing yards in all five contests.
Not only is Henry a superstar and arguably the best running back in the NFL, but he has an excellent matchup this week. The Packers have surrendered 1,248 rushing yards to running backs this season, the second-most in the NFL. They are giving up 124.8 rushing yards per game to the position, surrendering at least 100 yards in all but two games this year. Furthermore, Green Bay has been awful at stopping running backs lately. They have given up an average of 133.2 rushing yards per game to the position over the past five weeks, giving up at least 102 yards every game. No one should be surprised to see Henry have his fifth game this season with over 110 rushing yards this week.
Aaron Rodgers Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Unfortunately, the future Hall of Fame quarterback hasn’t put up the same type of numbers he did a year ago. The loss of Davante Adams has been a problem for the Packers. However, the two-time reigning MVP has played better lately. He is averaging 231.5 passing yards per game this season, throwing for at least 245 yards in four of the past eight games. More importantly, Rodgers has averaged 257.5 passing yards per game over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Allen Lazard has stepped up as the No. 1 wide receiver, while the rookie Christian Watson is coming off a massive performance last week against the Cowboys.
More importantly, the matchup is excellent for the two-time reigning MVP. The Titans have surrendered 294.4 passing yards per game this year, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, that number is even more favorable for Rodgers once broken down. Tennessee has faced Davis Mills and Daniel Jones this season. Removing those two matchups, the Titans have surrendered 330 passing yards per game. They have also given up at least 243 passing yards in all but one game since Week 1 and over 285 passing yards in 67% of their contests this season. Meanwhile, Caleb Farley was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, further weakening Tennessee’s secondary. Rodgers should have no trouble totaling 250 or more passing yards on Thursday night.
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