The 2023 fantasy football season is still over two months away. Therefore, we still have plenty of time for multiple startup dynasty fantasy football league drafts. However, let’s not talk about that.
Instead, let’s talk about what the top 10 picks look like a year from now. Let’s dive into it.
This article is based on a 12-team, single quarterback, non-tight end premium scoring league. Therefore, there won’t be a quarterback or tight end in the top 10.
Rankings Updated: June 29th, 2023
1) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
While Chase is the No. 2 player in dynasty startup drafts this year, that will change a year from now. The former LSU star was outstanding as a rookie. He was the WR5, averaging 15.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Despite finishing 18th in receptions, Chase finished top-four in receiving yards and touchdowns as a rookie.
Unfortunately, a hip injury cost the superstar five games last year. Yet, Chase still ended the season as the WR12, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game. Cincinnati will get a long-term deal done with Joe Burrow and Chase, making the wide receiver the top dynasty startup pick for the foreseeable future, starting in 2024.
2) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson is the 1.01 pick this year. He was the WR1 in 2022 and should be the favorite to repeat in 2023. Furthermore, there have been three wide receivers to finish top six the past three consecutive years – Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Jefferson. However, the former LSU superstar is only starting the prime of his career. The Vikings superstar averaged 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Check out his complete fantasy football outlook for 2023 here.
Furthermore, Jefferson led the league in receiving yards (1,809) in 2022. Some might worry the superstar will see his target share drop with T.J. Hockenson on the team. Yet, the former LSU averaged 1.2 more targets per game in the 10 contests with Hockenson on the team last year. While Kirk Cousins’ long-term future in Minnesota is in doubt, the superstar will remain a top-two dynasty startup pick.
3) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
While he hasn’t made his NFL debut, many have declared Robinson the dynasty RB1, myself included. The former Texas star was the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, making him the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018. More importantly, the rookie is an elite prospect who can be a difference-maker on the ground and in the passing game.
Robinson forced a missed tackle on 40.5% of his rushing attempts last season at Texas. More importantly, 16% of his rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards. The rookie is an excellent runner but equally talented in the passing game, averaging 16.5 yards per reception in 2022. The Falcons were the top rushing offense last year, which should only help make Robinson the clear-cut RB1 in startup drafts next year.
4) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Am I going to put a college prospect in the top five of the dynasty startup rankings? You bet! The Ohio State star is the son of former Indianapolis Colts superstar and Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison. While the old man was one of the best wide receivers to ever play in the NFL, his son could be even better. When Ohio State lost Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave to the NFL, Harrison stepped up with Jaxon Smith-Njigba injured.
The star receivers had 77 receptions for 1,263 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022. Harrison finished third in the Big 10 in receptions, second in receiving yards, and first in touchdowns. Furthermore, he earned the highest receiving grade from PFF among wide receivers, with at least 75 targets last year. More importantly, every team knew Harrison was C.J. Stroud’s go-to receiver. Yet, the former Buckeye was unstoppable.
5) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
While he struggled to stay healthy last season, the superstar running back remains a top-five dynasty startup draft pick. Taylor has never finished outside the top six any year of his career before last season. The former Wisconsin star was the RB6 as a rookie, averaging 15.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Then Taylor was the RB1 in 2021, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game while leading the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns.
Unfortunately, injuries and the team’s dysfunctional problems ruined his 2022 season. More importantly, he has averaged 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and 3.4 yards after contact per rushing attempt in his career. With Anthony Richardson keeping defenses from going all out to stop the superstar running back, Taylor should bounce back this upcoming season. Enjoy the discount while you can, as the superstar will be a top-five pick again starting in 2024.
6) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
After starting his career as the No. 2 wide receiver opposite Amari Cooper, Lamb had a breakout 2022 season. The superstar was the WR6, averaging 14.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, the former Oklahoma star nearly doubled his career touchdown production, totaling nine receiving scores after having 11 over the first two years of his career.
Meanwhile, Lamb improved his route running numbers despite a 23.1% target increase. The superstar averaged 2.4 yards per route run and 0.44 fantasy points per route last season, both career highs. Meanwhile, the addition of Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup should keep defenses from consistently doubling team the former Oklahoma star. Even after breaking out in 2022, Lamb still has room to grow.
7) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
While New York’s offense was a disaster in 2022, Wilson was the lone bright spot for the Jets. The rookie wide receiver ended the year as the WR19, averaging 10.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the former Ohio State star finished 14th among wide receivers with 1,103 receiving yards despite playing with a merry-go-round of awful quarterbacks.
However, fantasy players should be excited about Wilson’s future. The former Ohio State star had 89 or more receiving yards in six of the final 10 games last season, including over 110 yards twice. More importantly, Wilson scored 20 or more fantasy points in nearly 20% of the games last season. With Aaron Rodgers taking over as the starting quarterback, the second-year star should have a breakout year and become a top dynasty wide receiver.
8) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Last year Hall was the unanimous 1.01 pick in rookie drafts and a top-15 dynasty startup pick. Unfortunately, a torn ACL ended the rookie running back’s season after seven games. However, Hall was the RB7 on a points-per-game basis last year, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game after Week 1.
More importantly, Hall averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and 4.1 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie. While the Jets are hyping the rookie Israel Abanikanda, fantasy players have nothing to worry about with the superstar running back. The only thing that can derail Hall’s fantasy future is injuries.
9) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Olave is already one of the top dynasty wide receivers. Last year the former Ohio State star was the WR25, averaging 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the rookie was catching passes from Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. Yet, Olave had over 1,000 receiving yards last, including three 100-yard performances. Meanwhile, he and Garrett Wilson were the only two rookies with over 1,000 receiving yards.
More importantly, the Saints upgraded at the quarterback position this offseason, signing Derek Carr. Meanwhile, New Orleans didn’t add meaningful competition for targets, making Olave the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver again this season. While Michael Thomas is still around, the veteran has missed 80% of the games over the past three years. If he can score seven or more touchdowns in 2023, the star Olave will have the first top-12 finish of his career.
10) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
The entire fantasy football community owes St. Brown an apology. He ended his rookie season on fire. The former USC star was the WR2 over the final six weeks of the 2021 season, averaging 20.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the rookie averaged only 1.7 fantasy points per game less than Cooper Kupp during those six weeks. Yet, the fantasy football community doubted the wide receiver heading into last year.
He was the WR8 in 2022, averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. While the Lions added Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta during the 2023 NFL Draft, neither can threaten the star’s No. 1 pass catcher role. Unless the Lions draft Marvin Harrison Jr. next year, St. Brown will be a first-round dynasty startup pick in 2024.
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