Week 1 MNF Player Prop Bets: Bills vs. Jets

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

The 2023 NFL regular season is finally here! After an offseason full of shocking headlines and questionable decisions, it’s time to bet on actual NFL-caliber football. Not to mention, fantasy football. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Monday night we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Josh Allen Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The former first-round pick has been a superstar since Buffalo traded for Stefon Diggs. Allen has averaged 270.1 passing yards per game over the past three seasons. Furthermore, the veteran quarterback averaged 267.7 passing yards per game in 2022, the second-highest average of his career. However, Allen has struggled against New York, averaging 254.5 passing yards per game in his eight career healthy matchups against the division rival.

Last year, the superstar averaged only 176 passing yards per game against the Jets, totaling 205 or fewer in both contests. Furthermore, he has averaged 239.3 passing yards per game in the four career matchups against Robert Saleh in New York. Allen has had more than 240 passing yards in only one contest against the Jets over the past two years. While everyone wants Monday’s matchup to be a high-scoring shootout between Allen and Aaron Rodgers, that’s unlikely to happen.

Dalvin Cook Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Some might think Cook is no longer a talented player because his numbers slightly regressed last season. The former Florida State star averaged 69 rushing yards per game in 2022. Yet, he averaged at least 4.4 yards per rushing attempt for the sixth consecutive year. More importantly, Cook had at least 47 rushing yards in 70.6% of the contest last season, including 86 or more yards in nearly half the games.

Meanwhile, the Bills held running backs to 88.1 rushing yards per game last year, the 11th-fewest in the NFL. However, they struggled against the AFC East division rivals. The Jets averaged 108.5 rushing yards per game from their running backs in the two matchups against the Bills last season. Furthermore, Buffalo surrendered 76 rushing yards to Michael Carter in one matchup and 71 yards to Zonovan Knight in the other matchup. With the Jets wanting to ease Breece Hall back onto the field following a torn ACL, expect Cook to be the lead back Monday night.

Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

The superstar is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, thanks to his elite arm. However, Allen is also a dangerous runner. While the Bills have said they want to limit his rushing attempts this season, the team said similarly last year. Yet, the superstar quarterback had a career-high 124 rushing attempts in 2022. While that number should regress this season, Allen tends to run more often when facing an elite defense like the Jets.

Last year, the superstar quarterback averaged 7.8 rushing attempts per game, a career-high. However, he averaged 9.5 rushing attempts per game in the two matchups against the Jets, totaling at least nine attempts in both contests. Furthermore, Allen has averaged 57 rushing yards against New York in his eight career healthy matchups. Last season, the superstar had at least 47 rushing yards in both contests. More aggressive bettors should also consider Allen to have 50 or more rushing yards at +185.

Garrett Wilson Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Wilson had an excellent rookie season, capped off by winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, despite playing with four awful quarterbacks. The former Ohio State star led all rookies in receiving yards, averaging 64.9 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, Wilson had at least 78 receiving yards in nearly half of the contests despite the awful quarterback production.

More importantly, the Bills struggled to shut down opposing wide receivers last year. Buffalo gave up 160.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the seventh-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Wilson had no trouble when facing the Bills. The former Ohio State star averaged 85 receiving yards against the division rivals, totaling at least 78 receiving yards in both contests. If he was productive despite playing with Zach Wilson and Mike White, imagine what he does with Rodgers under center.

Stefon Diggs Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While there were some concerns this offseason that Diggs wanted out of Buffalo, the superstar wide receiver is happy to be with the team. More importantly, he is prime for another outstanding season. Last year, the former Maryland star averaged 89.3 receiving yards per game, the second-highest average of his career. However, Diggs had fewer than 63 receiving yards in nearly a third of the contests, including three of the final four games.

The Jets have arguably the top young cornerback in the NFL – Sauce Gardner. Last year, he had success against Diggs and Buffalo. The former Cincinnati Bearcat held the superstar wide receiver to only 65 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, he kept Diggs to only three receptions for 37 receiving yards in the second matchup. More importantly, New York held opposing wide receivers to only 109.2 receiving yards per game last season, the fewest in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if Diggs struggles in Week 1.

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