Week 1 NFL DFS Picks for FanDuel, Stacks, and Prop Bets
We are finally back into NFL season! It may have only been about five months of no football, but for me, it’s always the longest stretch of the year. I am glad to be returning for my second season with the Faceoff Sports network, and I hope we can deliver weekly picks, plays, and props to help you become a profitable player.
The Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) picks will be players of high salaries and value plays. Additionally, for this season, I will add a few props that I feel have a good chance of hitting and making us some money. So, without further delay, let’s dive into the Week 1 edition!
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins – $7,500 – Proj. ownership – 8%
Kirk Cousins does not get the attention he should in most weeks, but he has his share of solid weeks with seven top-10 finishes among quarterbacks in 2022. Arguably, the best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, a top-tier tight end on the opposite end of his passes, has and will continue to serve him well. The Vikings also added rookie Wide Receiver Jordan Addison, so we’ll get our first look into how he fits into this offense.
Sam Howell = $7,100 – Proj. ownership – 4%
We only had a one-game glimpse of Sam Howell in Week 18 last season, but he showed well. He could be without his top receiver, Terry McLaurin, but that may help his rushing stats, so I’m not too worried about that. The Arizona defense is not known to be stout and allowed over 18.50 FanDuel points per week to opoposing quarterbacks. I think Howell did well in the preseason and will likely take a significant step forward in the 2023 season.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb – $8,600 – Proj. ownership – 8%
Nick Chubb is coming off a season in which he racked up just shy of 1800 total yards and 13 touchdowns. He enters this season with what many think will be an improved DeShaun Watson at the helm and a receiving group that should keep the defenses from stacking the box. In 2022, Chubb finished with a Consistency Score of 6.59, good for 6th among runningbacks. The Browns have also let Kareem Hunt go, so we could see an uptick in receptions for Chubb.
Javonte Williams – $6,500 – Proj. ownership – 7%
Javonte Williams is coming off a tear of his ACL and LCL, which doesn’t help when making the case to use him in Week 1. However, it does help in keeping his ownership down. That being said, he faces a Raider defense that allowed 4.5 YPC and 20 rushing touchdowns in 2022, and his Head Coach, Sean Payton, is looking to involve him early and often and has a history of producing runningbacks with excellent fantasy numbers.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill – $8,800 – Proj. ownership – 16%
Tyreek Hill has shown us that he can be an elite wide receiver no matter who his Quarterback is. He also led all wide receivers in 2022 with a Consistency Score of 8.02. This season, at least in Week 1, he has Tua Tagovailoa back, only helping his case to be the WR1 in fantasy points to start the season. His ownership and price are higher than I usually like, but while most will be stacking this game, I’ll use Hill and an occasional lineup with Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. This game should provide all the entertainment we’ll want, so make sure your food spread is ready and beers are cold.
Chris Godwin – $6,800 – Proj. ownership – 7%
Chris Godwin appeared to have some chemistry with Baker Mayfield in the preseason and looks to be a solid option this week as he faces the Minnesota Vikings. Last year, they ranked 27th in passing DVOA in 2022. At his price, we’re looking for a game of about six catches for 90 yards with a touchdown, which Godwin is more than capable of.
Michael Thomas – $6,000 – Proj. ownership – 2%
After having played only three games last season, Michael Thomas is back. In those three games last year, he scored over 15 points twice. The Saints brought in quarterback Derek Carr, who will also have Chris Olave to target, but I like Thomas’s price, ownership, and upside this week. It also helps that the Tennessee Titans were a pass funnel defense in 2022, and there’s not much that should change that this year.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson – $7,200 – Proj. ownership – 6%
Aside from Travis Kelce, there are very few tight ends I’ll pay north of $7k for, mainly due to the lack of consistency. However, Hockenson finished 3rd in Consistency Score among tight ends and has a solid role in this Minnesota offense. With it being Week 1, there is value all over the place, so I think we can splurge for something nice here.
Tyler Higbee – $5,300 – Proj. ownership – 6%
This is more my speed regarding pricing for the tight end position. It also helps that the Rams will be without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. To be clear, we’re not looking for Higbee to produce an out-of-this-world type game here. However, I think that with the scenario we have, he could post six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown game for 15 fantasy points.
Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta Falcons – $4,500 – Proj ownership – 2%
I could go with the Baltimore Ravens here, but I figured I’d save us a few dollars. I could see Atlanta getting in front here, forcing the rookie quarterback Bryce Young to throw more. Atlanta pressured the quarterback on 27% of dropbacks last season, which probably won’t help Young and could lead to some turnovers and, hopefully, a score.
Top DFS Stacks for Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers – This isn’t one that you’ll hear too many throw out there. However, if you’re looking to be different, save money, and have the potential to score some solid fantasy points, it may be your ticket. Desmond Ridder, Derek London, with Adam Thielen as a runback option. This stack would cost $18,700, leaving an average of $6,883 per player for the remainder of your roster. All in all, a solid value for an intriguing stack.
Packers vs. Bears – Okay… If you’re looking for dirt cheap, minimal ownership with the potential to exceed value, I may have something for you. It’s not pretty, but here we go Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, and Luke Musgrave with a runback of Kahlil Herbert. You don’t have to use both Doubs and Musgrave, and I’d shy away from the latter since Christian Watson is likely not playing. However, I don’t think this allows many options for the remainder of your roster.
Player Prop Bets
A new addition to this year’s weekly article will be a selection of player prop bets that offer us a good chance to add some extra cash to our bankroll.
IND – Anthony Richardson – Over 188.5 passing yards – Current odds (-114) – No Jonathan Taylor, no solid backup option in a game they’ll likely trail should lead to some garbage time passing yards to bring this one home.
MIA – Tyreek Hill – Over 84.5 receiving yards – Current odds (-114) – This game is projected to be a shootout, so the opportunities for Hill to rack up receiving yards should be available. It could take only one or two receptions for Hill to cash this prop bet.
Placing these two bets as a parlay gives us a +252 odds or the chance to win $25.20 for every $10 we bet.
As always, make sure you’re watching the injury reports leading up to kickoff, and if you’d like to stay up to date with any changes to the above picks and bets, you can follow me on X @BigEZDFS. If you are interested in the data (The Sheets) I use to compile my weekly player pool, please email me at BigEZDFS@gmail.com.
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