Week 1 TNF Player Prop Bets: Lions vs. Chiefs

Welcome back to another season of Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

The 2023 NFL regular season is less than 48 hours away. After an offseason full of shocking headlines and questionable decisions, it’s time to bet on actual NFL-caliber football. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props are from DraftKings.

Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)

Goff surprised everyone last year. While many thought he was a bottom-five quarterback, the former No. 1 overall pick had 29 passing touchdowns, the fifth-most in the NFL. The 29 passing touchdowns were the second-most in his career. Furthermore, Goff had a 4.9% touchdown rate last season, his highest average since 2018. More importantly, this week’s matchup is outstanding for the veteran quarterback.

Last year, the Chiefs gave up 33 passing touchdowns (1.94 per game), the most in the NFL. Kansas City surrendered two or more passing touchdowns in 70.6% of the matchups last season, including three or more scores four times. Meanwhile, Goff had had two or more passing touchdowns in over 52% of the games last year. With Chris Jones likely not playing this week, the veteran quarterback should have at least two passing touchdowns in the game.

Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Unfortunately, Mahomes might be without Travis Kelce in Week 1 because of a knee injury. Even if the future Hall of Fame tight end plays, he won’t be 100%. The superstar quarterbacks averaged 21.1 rushing yards per game last season, making it the third consecutive year he averaged over 20 rushing yards per matchup. Furthermore, Mahomes had 21 or more rushing yards in 10 games last season, hitting the over on this rushing total in 58.8% of the contests.

Meanwhile, the Lions struggle with rushing quarterbacks. They gave up 700 rushing yards (41.2 per game) to quarterbacks last year, the most in the NFL. Even if you removed the two matchups against Justin Fields, the Lions still gave up 28.1 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, giving up 49 or more yards four times. Don’t be surprised if Mahomes uses his legs more often than usual in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)

Everyone is excited to see the rookie running back in his first NFL regular season game. Gibbs is replacing D’Andre Swift as the Lions’ passing-catching specialist out of the backfield. That’s not to say the rookie will have a meaningful role on the ground, but I like the over on his reception total in this contest. Last year, Swift finished second on the team in receptions (48) and targets (70) despite missing three games and playing only 42% of the snaps. Yet, he averaged 3.4 receptions and five targets per game.

More importantly, the Chiefs struggled to slow down pass-catching running backs last season. They surrendered the most receptions to running backs, giving up 6.3 catches per contest. Meanwhile, the over/under for this matchup is 53.5, nearly three points higher than the next closest game in Week 1. Therefore, bettors should expect this battle to be a high-scoring one. With Amon-Ra St. Brown as Jared Goff’s only reliable weapon in the passing game, Gibbs could easily total five or six receptions in this contest.

Isiah Pacheco Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Kansas City didn’t make any meaningful additions to their backfield this offseason, making Pacheco the lead running back in 2023. Last year’s seventh-round pick led the Chiefs in rushing yards (830) by a significant margin despite playing only 31% of the offensive snaps. Pacheco had 472 more rushing yards than any other player on the team and 528 more yards than any other running back. More importantly, he averaged 48.8 rushing yards per game despite his slow start.

After playing 30% or less of the offensive snaps in the first eight games last year, Pacheco averaged 70.3 rushing yards per game during the final eight games of the regular season. Then, the former Rutgers star averaged 65.7 rushing yards per contest during the playoffs. Yet, Pacheco played over 51% of the snaps in only one regular season game and one playoff matchup. Meanwhile, the Lions gave up 99 rushing yards per game to running backs last season. Pacheco should end the game with at least 60 rushing yards.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (-135)

The Lions arguably have the worst wide receiver unit in the NFL outside St. Brown. Last year, the former USC star led the team in receptions and targets. He had over twice as many receptions and targets as anyone else on the team. St. Brown averaged 6.6 receptions on 9.1 targets per game last season, both career highs. Furthermore, the star wide receiver had seven or more receptions in 64.3% of the 14 games last season that he played at least 35% of the snaps.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. They surrendered the eighth most receptions to wide receivers (222), giving up 13.1 per game. Furthermore, Kansas City had no answers against slot receivers, giving up 6.5 receptions per game to the opposing slot receiver. Last year, St. Brown played 59.9% of his snaps in the slot. With Jameson Williams suspended and Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta playing their first NFL game, expect Jared Goff to target St. Brown early and often Thursday night.

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