Week 3 Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Giants vs. 49ers

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 2 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday we have a matchup between the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings as of 9/20/23

Daniel Jones Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230)

Unfortunately, the payout for this prop bet is awful. However, that suggests DraftKings strongly feels Jones won’t throw two touchdown passes Thursday night, and they are right. The former Duke quarterback has turned his career around after a rocky start. Yet, he hasn’t turned into a passing machine. Jones has thrown over 1.5 passing touchdowns in only 28.6% of the games in his career. Furthermore, the veteran has had one or fewer passing touchdowns in 72.2% of the contests since the start of the 2022 season.

While he had two passing touchdowns last week against a weak Arizona Cardinals defense, that won’t happen again this week. San Francisco has arguably the top defense in the NFL, thanks to their elite front seven led by Nick Bosa. The 49ers have given up only one passing touchdown in both contests this year despite facing an average of 50.5 pass attempts per game. Furthermore, they have held quarterbacks to only 1.2 passing touchdowns per game since the start of the 2022 season. With left tackle Andrew Thomas out again this week, Jones will struggle throwing the ball.

Christian McCaffrey Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

There isn’t a better running back in the NFL right now than McCaffrey. The superstar running back struggled with injuries a few years ago but has been unstoppable since joining the 49ers. After playing only 23% of the snaps in his San Francisco debut, McCaffrey has averaged 81.3 rushing yards per game in his other 12 regular season games with the team. More importantly, the former Stanford star has been outstanding this season, averaging 21 rushing attempts for 134 yards per game, totaling at least 116 yards in both contests.

Yet, don’t be surprised if McCaffrey goes over 150 rushing yards against the Giants. New York has struggled to slow down opposing running backs this year, giving up 106 rushing yards per game, the seventh-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they gave up 118.8 rushing yards to running backs last season, the fourth-most in the league. After giving up over 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 106 yards to James Conner in Week 2, McCaffrey could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.

Daniel Jones Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

The Giants won’t have Saquon Barkley this week because of an ankle injury. While Matt Breida is the next man up in the backfield, Jones will have a significant role in the run game. The veteran quarterback has averaged 11 rushing attempts for 51 yards per game this season, totaling at least 43 yards in both contests, with Barkley healthy. Furthermore, Jones averaged 44.3 rushing yards per game last season, totaling 68 or more yards in nearly a third of the matchups.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have surrendered only 21 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, the 11th-fewest in the NFL. However, opposing quarterbacks have attempted only five rushing attempts against San Francisco. That won’t be the case Thursday night. Jones already has 22 rushing attempts this year, totaling at least nine in both contests. The 49ers have surrendered 3.5 yards per rushing attempt to quarterbacks since the start of the 2022 season. Even if Jones only has 11 rushing attempts in this contest at that 3.5 yards per attempt average, he will hit the over on this prop bet.

Deebo Samuel Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

While Samuel is a talented player, he has struggled with injuries and opportunities over the past few years. However, he is healthy, and Brandon Aiyuk is a game-time decision with a shoulder injury. The wide receiver was a rushing star in 2021, averaging 54.2 yards per game. Unfortunately, that number dropped last year after the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey. Yet, Samuel averaged 15.3 rushing yards per game with McCaffrey on the roster before suffering a knee injury.

More importantly, the star receiver had five rushing attempts for 38 yards last week. Samuel earned rushing attempts ahead of Elijah Mitchell, as the running back didn’t see the field. The star receiver has averaged only 3.5 rushing attempts per game but for 23 yards per contest this year. Furthermore, he has averaged 15.8 rushing yards per game in his nine regular season games with McCaffrey in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Giants have surrendered 136.5 rushing yards per game this year, the seventh-most in the NFL. Samuel only needs 3-4 rushing attempts for the over on this prop bet to hit.

Darren Waller Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Week 1 was a nightmare for the Giants’ offense. The game was over before the end of the first quarter. However, Waller still had a solid performance, totaling three receptions on five targets for 36 receiving yards on 23 routes run. Furthermore, the veteran tight end only played 54.3% of the snaps but had a 21.7% target per route run rate. More importantly, he was a star in Week 2. Waller had six receptions on eight targets for 76 receiving yards on 39 routes run. The veteran played 89.7% of the snaps and had a 20.5% target per route run rate in the win.

Unfortunately, New York won’t have Saquon Barkley because of an ankle injury. Barkley and Waller are the only two Giants with over six receptions this year. Therefore, Daniel Jones will rely more on his star tight end in this matchup. Meanwhile, the 49ers have given up only six receptions for 34 receiving yards to tight ends this season. However, they have faced two lackluster tight ends. Last year, San Francisco gave up 72 receiving yards to Waller in the Week 17 matchup on only three receptions despite facing off against Jarrett Stidham at quarterback.

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