Every year we stare at our screens with bated breath. Watching and waiting for our favorite rookie prospects to run, jump, and compete on the turf in Indianapolis. We marvel at the absurd displays of athleticism. Certainly picturing these players leading our future dynasty fantasy football teams to deep playoff runs.

However, Sundays are played in helmets and shoulder pads. Not just shirts and shorts. What are we to make of the performances of these future stars? And what results can be used to predict future success? In this article, I will lay out what to look for at this event, and what to avoid. Furthermore, understanding what matters and what doesn’t to predict future success in the NFL. Continue reading to find out which metrics and drills matter for each position at the NFL Combine.

Back to Basics

So, what is the point for us? By the time we get to the NFL Combine in late February, I try to have most of my framework on rookie prospects done. Such as an idea of their general abilities in pads, how they produced for their team, their production, and the environment in which they produced.

An example of one such breakdown can be found here, where I broke down the 2023 leader in the 40-yard dash for running backs, Devon Achane.

When approaching the data presented by the Combine, I am looking for two things. Those two are results that align with what I saw on tape, and a single quality to help sift out the diamonds from the rough. Outliers. How these players are identified will be explained in the upcoming sections.

Player Testing

The first portion of the day in which the players take the field starts with four measurements. Those measurements include height, weight, wingspan, and hand size. After these numbers are gathered, the positional groups gather on the turf to receive instruction from staff.

The instructions given are meant to keep the players on an equal starting point for the coming drills. Overall, it’s a baseline from which the results will be derived. The on-field testing includes the previously stated headlining 40-yard sprint, which receives extensive coverage. A prime example is the time recorded by Florida quarterback prospect Anthony Richardson in the following clip:

The dash is followed by the vertical jump and broad jump. Both of which are intended to measure their burst capability. In addition, the 20-yard shuttle and three-cone drills are used to assess how well they can change momentum. In conjunction with these workouts, the bench press requires players to complete as many repetitions of 225 pounds as possible.

Now, once the drills are over and we have the lists of numbers compiled we must make sense of the madness. A daunting task that many better minds have taken swings at through the creation of databases. Of these databases, none are more used by myself than the brain-child of Kent Lee Platte, otherwise known as @MathBomb on Twitter.

Relative Athletic Score

In general, athletic ability correlates positively with NFL success, whereas a lack of athletic ability correlates negatively. Relative Athletic Score or RAS simply provides a numerical value to such events. It is designed to allow us to examine them in mathematical terms.

This is one of my favorite tools to utilize in the off-season for the NFL draft as a whole. Which combines all measured attributes at the combine into a grade based on the percentile the prospect falls into.

This is an example of a scorecard for the wide receiver out of Charlotte, Grant DuBose. As you can see it has all of the gathered figures from testing into one readable sheet. His highest percentile score came in the first ten yards of the 40-yard dash, the ten-yard split, in which he placed in the 94th percentile. His lowest percentile came in the 20-yard shuttle, in the 44th percentile. The remaining results fall into at least the above-average range giving him a composite score of 8.15.

There are two different RAS results per player, a score that is specific to the draft class percentiles, which is shown in a card for Dubose, and a score that incorporates all recorded data. I prefer time data because of the larger data pool it provides which gives a clearer picture of what types of players fall into certain groupings. Now that we have established a lens to look at these prospects through, I will go position by position to identify the utility of their scores for our fantasy teams.

Wide Receivers

When looking at the wide receiver position, I tend to break them down into archetypes they will likely play in the NFL. For this section I will keep it simple, there are three general categories I break prospects down into.

First, the X receivers can win at any level of the field with a domineering combination of ball skills, size, and speed. Think Ja’Marr Chase. For this type of player, I’m looking for a height of 6’1 and a weight of 200 pounds at the least. As for the athletic testing, I keep my eye on the 40-yard dash and the vertical jump. In the dash I want them running under 4.55 while for the vertical I want them jumping over 37 inches.

Next are the Y receivers, these players possess a refined route tree with the toughness to maintain possession. Think Chris Godwin. In the measurements, I’m looking for them to be over 175 pounds OR over 6′ tall. When it comes to the drills I am looking at 75th percentile scores in the 10-yard split, 20-yard shuttle, and the three-cone.

Finally, there are the deep threats. True speedsters who make defensive coordinators lie awake at night. These players cause the defense to bend coverages to keep them from scoring in the blink of an eye. Think DeSean Jackson. For these types, I would prefer a 40 time under 4.4 and an elite explosion grade.

Do not treat these guidelines as gospel, as athleticism for wide receivers does not translate into NFL success. What you should keep an eye out for are the players who end up with a RAS of less than 2.5. Also, look out for players with three out of four portions of the score being poor.

Another way of predicting success in future wide receivers is by using our Prospect Succes Indicator (PSI).

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the PSI Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match the profile of a Top 24 wide receiver.

Running Backs

Unlike the previous section, this one has a direct correlation between success at the Combine and success in the league. The meat and potatoes of my profile evaluation for the running back position are confirmed through the NFL Combine. Though there are many archetypes for running backs, only two markers matter to me regardless of role.

The first one is size. In particular a body mass index, or BMI, of 30. Being above this mark shows me, and NFL scouts, that the player is stout enough to handle a heavy workload. In fact, the average BMI of the top 15 dynasty running backs in dynasty leagues is 30.9.

Secondly, I look at the 40-yard dash. I keep it simple here as well as the cut-off is above a time of 4.6. The average time of a top 15 dynasty back is 4.48.

If these two marks are hit, these players get my green light. This leaves only the NFL Draft left to tell me what the league thinks they can do with these outstanding athletes. An example of a player that exemplifies these two qualities along with the NFL following suit is Saquon Barkley. Who ran a low 4.4 and had a BMI of 31.6 coming out of Penn State. His card is shown below.

Quarterbacks

There isn’t much to say here. Because for the most part, this position is determined by the head on their shoulders as opposed to the body beneath it. As flashy as the drills and throws against air can be, being impressive in drills does not show us what we need to see.

Indeed, of the top 12 quarterbacks in dynasty leagues in 2023, there are only two features that are common across their profiles. The first one is an adequate 40-yard time that indicates a capacity to run, being a time under 4.8 seconds.

The other key is that the average heights and weights of these players are in the ballpark of 6’2 and 220 pounds. Conversely, there are outliers for that box, namely Kyler Murray who comes in at 5’10 and 207 pounds.

Tight Ends

This position is the one that I utilize the over-arching relative athletic score the most. Outside of the top five dynasty tight ends, the position is an absolute wasteland. Typically, what I attempt to do is identify the cheapest options that can be used to fill out my depth for dynasty teams. Increasingly I find that the cheapest options come in the rookie drafts or even off of waivers after the draft.

The RAS score that I seek out for these depth tight ends that populate my roster is an eight with a 40-yard dash under 4.7 seconds. Players of note that hit this score end up being drafted before the end of the 5th Round of the NFL Draft. The poster child of this concept will come to fruition this year in the form of Zack Kuntz, whose scorecard is below.

Conclusion

To wrap things up, I will leave you all with this… The Combine cannot be the end-all-be-all of prospect evaluation for your dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. While for some positions it plays a key part in decision-making, there are many variables being brought into the picture. Simply put, I use this event to confirm what I see on tape and to find outliers. Then, if either factor doesn’t align with what I saw, I reassess my evaluations.

To get more information on these variables keep an eye on our article feed throughout the off-season. If you have any questions or feel like the information presented here is inaccurate feel free to tweet under the name @GpodawundFF. Oh, and as always, thanks for your time and the read!

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