What to Expect for the New England Patriots Draft
The Patriots have sat mired in three years of meh in the post-Tom Brady era. New England has gone 25-25 overall with one quick and forgettable playoff appearance in a one-side loss at Buffalo after the 2021 season. They finished 8-9 in 2022 with the season-ending again at the Bills in a win-and-in setup.
The squad will look quite different in 2023 as 18 players hit unrestricted free agency, including top receiver Jakobi Meyers, running back Damien Harris, cornerback Jonathan Jones and Tackle Isaiah Winn. The good news is that the Pats have an estimated $28,231,628 ineffective cap space (space after signing 51 players and the rookie draft class) according to OverTheCap. That is sixth most in the league, though numbers will change as teams restructure contracts and cut players to add space.
2023 Draft Picks
Further, New England has a veritable bounty of draft picks. The Pats will hold 11 in total after the NFL allows the expected compensatory picks.
- Round 1-14
- 2-46
- 3-76
- 4-107
- 4-117
- 4-135 (projected)
- 6-184
- 6-187
- 6-192
- 6-210 (projected)
- 7-258 (projected)
As the draft gets closer, expect lots of wagering props on the first pick, specific team picks, and all sorts of props like “how many quarterbacks will get drafted in the first round” et al. Sports betting is legal now in the Bay State at three physical locations, with online sportsbooks set to open up on March 10th just in time for March Madness, the MLB season and NFL Draft wagering. New customers at Massachusetts Betting Sites can take advantage of some generous welcome offers such as bonus bets worth up to $1000 if your first bet of the same amount does not cash.
2022 Offense
Expect lots of picks on offense, especially at the wide receiver position. Football Outsiders ranks each team by their DVOA metric, taking “the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on the field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.” They further break it down into offensive and defensive DVOA, and even further by type of play, down, and so on. It is expressed as a percentage above or below the league average.
The Patriots rank 15th in overall team DVOA at -.5%, making them essentially the definition of league average. As every casual observer would notice, however, they played well on defense and quite poorly when they had the ball. FO had them third in the league overall in defense at -12.4% (negative is good on defense) but just 24th in offense at -8.5%. They appeared to run better than they passed, but not by much as FO had them 23rd in passing and 21st in rushing.
Quarterback Mac Jones regressed a bit in his second season, throwing for just 5.35 Adjusted Net Yards per attempt (ANY/A), 24th in the league via Pro Football Reference. FO uses Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) which, as it implies, measures the QB versus a replacement-level player, and Jones came out at just +33 DYAR, 26th best.
Offensive Weapons
The Pats’ thinking will clearly be to get Jones some better weapons, most likely a combo of veterans acquired via trade or free agency or in the draft. As to the former, it is a very poor class of free-agent wide receivers. Meyers might be the best one out there. The trade market could develop though as there are rumors that the Cardinals might make DeAndre Hopkins available. Last off-season saw Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and AJ Brown change teams and none were particularly on a likely-trade radar early in the off-season.
Regardless of any veteran acquisitions, expect the Pats to use at least one of their earlier picks on a wideout. It is not considered as good a class as in 2022, but there are a handful of receivers with first-round grades, and most likely all will still be there when the Pats pick at 14.
As per ESPN, the top two are Jordan Addison of USC and Jaxon Smith-Njigba of Ohio State. Many others have TCU’s Quentin Johnston in the mix.
Addison at 6’ 175 lbs is not large but he is fast, runs great routes and he put up big numbers both at Pitt and then at USC with Heisman winner Caleb Williams throwing to him. Smith-Njigba had an insane 2022 Rose Bowl, to the tune of 15 catches for 347 yards and three touchdowns, and looked prime to have a huge 2022 season. Unfortunately, he then got injured early in the 2022 season and barely played, catching five passes total. Assuming he is healthy, he will likely still go in the first round and even possibly as the top receiver.
Johnston missed time with injuries in 2022 but still had 60 catches for 1069 yards and six touchdowns. Plus he’s huge at 6’4” and 215 lbs though not considered a standout separator or route runner.
If the Patriots prefer the Tight End route, Michael Meyer of Notre Dame could be available at Pick 14. While he is not exceptionally fast, he has good size and skill at an agile 6’4”, 265 lbs. ESPN has TJ Hockenson as his comp.
As for other needs, the Pats may look to the offensive line and secondary, though most likely in later rounds. With 11 picks they can dabble a bit everywhere, plus by then they will have likely added some free agents and perhaps brought back Meyers or others of their own. Overall, they really do need playmakers before they can reach a verdict on whether Jones is their quarterback of the future.
2023 Rookies
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