Why You Should Be Targeting 2025 Draft Picks

2023 rookie pick prices are at an all-time high in dynasty fantasy football leagues. We’ve been singing the praises of this class for two years but it has felt like centuries to get here. Now, these 2023 rookie drafts are about to start for your dynasty leagues. Whether you have too many picks, or if you don’t like the board from where you are, there is one thing you can do. Punt the proverbial ball until 2025. 

Do I mean wait over 700 days to pick after already waiting THIS LONG? Yes, I do.

Top Prospects for 2024

So 2024 picks already have names attached to them. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Treyveon Henderson, Raheim Sanders, Beau Allen, Blake Corum, Marvin Harrison Jr, Johnny Wilson, and Brock Bowers. So trading into the 2024 1st round already has lost a majority of its discount. Additionally, people can project similar results to this last year, while giving favor to the teams who have acquired high-end talent so far this offseason, as well as the draft. All in all, there is the “the team with the 1.07 is likely picking around the same spot next year” mentality.

One approach that has gained traction in recent years is to trade for picks two years into the future, and this strategy offers several benefits to owners who are looking to build a successful dynasty team. If you had been picking up 2023 picks while everyone was enamored with 2021, you would have pretty significant value on your hands.

Additionally, you may be asking what is the general mindset of a manager. Trading for rookie picks two years in advance allows owners to acquire top-tier talent at discounted prices. In many cases, owners who are willing to trade away early-round picks are doing so because they are not in a position to compete in the short term, or because they believe that the talent pool in the upcoming draft is not particularly strong.

Thanks to the NFL, the mentality says that a draft pick decreases one round in value each year away it is from the selection. Personally, I would argue it is closer to .75 as seldom is anyone taking a 3rd round pick this year for a 1st in two years. If that is the case, I need to hire you as my personal salesman. Overall, the actual value drop is much less. By trading for these picks, owners can acquire top-tier talent at a fraction of the cost, giving them a significant advantage over their competitors.

Top Prospects for 2025

There are players in the 2025 class that already show tremendous potential. From Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Quinshon Judkins, Luther Burden, and Evan Stewart, just to name a few. While the class does have names now of note, a lot can change in the value of players due to a lack of growth or simply returning to school. Names like Spencer Rattler or Blake Corum are examples for those of you who have been monitoring the 2023 class for a few years.

That being said, these projections change a lot by the time the class comes out. I promise you Tyjae Spears, Jalin Hyatt, and Anthony Richardson were not nearly mentioned as much or as highly regarded as they are now. Often we project based on college star ratings but ultimately won’t see the value of them until their final collegiate season. Players like Rattler come to mind when considering projections that were made too soon, only to see the player fail to develop further than their recruiting ranking implied.

Draft picks gain in value over the years and can be tremendous assets down the road. Furthermore, they are an asset or investment that has consistent returns. Even if you don’t necessarily know if you’ll even use the picks, they still carry value. 

Dynasty Process

(Reference current values for 2.06, then reference value of 2025 2nds.)

2023 1.06 3570, (Similar value to Deebo Samuel & Jameson Williams)

2025 1st 3184 (Similar value to Treylon Burks & TJ Hockenson)

This is a 22% drop off in price given the unknowns of a season two years out. 

2023 2.06 329 (Similar to Kenneth Gainwell & Donovan Peoples-Jones)

2025 2nd 298 . This too is not far off, This is only a 9% drop-off in price.

Keep, Trade, Cut

KTC (Keep Trade Cut) has slightly different decay, with a 15% drop for 1st round picks and 18% for 2nd round picks. Thanks to this kind of ambiguity of pick valuations, there are many opportunities ripe for the taking when it comes to trading for 2025 picks.

Another benefit of trading for 2025 rookie picks is that it allows owners to plan for the long term. In dynasty leagues, success is often measured over the course of several years, rather than just one season. By acquiring picks well in advance, owners can develop a long-term strategy that will allow them to build a team that is capable of winning consistently over a period of several years. This isn’t limited to you making the selections of these picks, as also these picks can be used to trade away for more assets. 

Even as an example, I had a league where I had 11 first-round picks, and now, with only weeks until the draft, I have traded away five of these into assets like Christian McCaffrey and Garrett Wilson. These picks came at very low prices when I acquired them two years prior. So that in addition to these benefits, trading for rookie picks two years in advance also allows owners to take advantage of fluctuations in player values.

One could even argue that those 2025 rookie picks will also help you in the 2024 draft. As you can use them in improving your position in the draft to owners who find more appeal to the 2025 class once it becomes more known over this next season. Case in point, I’m sure in plenty of your leagues there has been jockeying done for a position in the draft where 2024 1sts have been included in order for teams to move up.

In conclusion, trading for 2025 rookie picks is a smart and effective strategy for owners who are looking to build a successful dynasty team. Taking advantage of this approach can help you to acquire the top-tier talent that you need to compete at the highest level, and position yourself for long-term success.

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