2022 Wyndham Championship – Picks, Odds, and Values

Here we are folks, the final event of the PGA Tour Regular Season. We got the Wyndham Championship on hand this week followed up by the FedEx Cup Playoffs commencing next week. It’s crazy to think we are already here. One last chance for those players on the cusp of the playoffs to keep competing on the highest level in Golf. Fascinating stuff to finish out the year. 

I’ll be talking about all things golf related. Golf stats, analytics, player tendencies, course breakdowns, picks, predictions, the whole nine yards.  Information you need to know to in order to stay in the green and out of the red.  So, take a ride with your boy, sit back, relax, and get yourself informed about what’s about to go down Thursday – Sunday this week at the Wyndham.

Previous Week

Right out the gate, we have a big-time shoutout to the lanky magician, no other than Tony Finau. Just pure domination out of Finau at the Rocket Mortgage. Huge kudos to Finau for the back-to-back victories winning a week prior at the 3M Open.  

Now it’s time to get down to business.

Course Breakdown – Sedgefield Country Club

This week’s Wyndham Championship will be played at Sedgefield Country Club which has played host to this event for a number of years.  Sedgefield is a Donald Ross-designed course, with slick Bermuda grass greens. You don’t have to be long at Sedgefield, but you must be accurate. This course reminds me a lot of Harbour Town in South Carolina with overhanging trees, being on the right side of those fairways for pin hunting, and weather dependent.   

Let’s hop into a unique course statistic at Sedgefield that I think is an interesting way to look at this track.  It’s called “Distance from Edge of Fairway” – when you miss the fairway, how much are you missing it by? You have a ton of players on tour who statistically miss the fairway by a huge margin, players who tend to stay in the fairway and use the right angles for pin hunting will come out victorious. A lot of guys will be able to get it done this weekend, but those who stay on the right side of the first cut/rough, understand pin placement, and are accurate with the driver will shape out much better than other players in the field.  In plain terms, are you giving yourself the best chance to hit the green regardless of if you’re in the fairway?

Course conditions and weather will also play a huge factor this weekend. We have North Carolina’s late summer moist and hot temperatures that can sometimes turn into rain making the course much softer. In recent tournaments, when the course was soft, we saw winners finish anywhere from 20 under to 25 under, while the hot summer heat made the course firmer, we saw winners finishing anywhere from 13 to 15 under. It does look like we may have some rainfall in Greensboro this weekend. Just something important to look at while making your picks and assessing if this week will be a birdie fest. 

The Favorites

Will Zalatoris (+1700)

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

What are we going to do with Will Zalatoris? Will his first win on Tour be a major tournament? Can it be this weekend?  Nobody seems to really know. I thought Zalatoris played very well last week at the Rocket Mortgage given Detroit Golf Club is a place not really suited for his style. Looking forward to this week, he has a ton of power Off the Tee (OTT), ranking 15th in Driving Distance at 313 yards per drive. However, the accuracy is not there. Remember that stat we talked about prior, Distance from Edge of Fairway, he ranks 157 on tour with a substantial 30 feet by average. Furthermore, he ranks 179 in driving accuracy and 203 in right rough tendency, two highly correlated stats to victory at Sedgefield. 

Just something to take into consideration.  I like Will as a 6 Man Roster play this week as I think many owners will shy away from Zalatoris, leaving some leverage on the table for a player who can take over this course with talent alone. He will be in my T20 no doubt.

Webb Simpson (+2100)

Nobody has more success at Sedgefield than Webb.  Since 2010, Webb has finished T10 or better 9 times, including a victory in 2011.  Webb just hasn’t been there the past few tournaments.  The man is having one of his worst putting performances since I can remember.  Even last week at the Rocket, you saw Webb with terrible body language throughout both rounds on Saturday and Sunday.  I am very curious to see how Webb plays this week.  However, given the state of where he is at, I will be fading him at Sedgefield.  

Shane Lowry (+1700 )

How can you not love Shane Lowry? In the last 36 rounds, he ranks #1 in the field leading 1.89 total in strokes gained. He has been so solid all year without even having a win. He has three top-3 finishes, with one being at Augusta.  In addition, Lowry is a very solid OTT; not to mention very accurate.  Like I stated, you don’t have to be long here, accuracy is key – finding greens then doing it with the flat stick.  Shane checks off all these boxes, he’s well-rounded and constantly playing out of the fairway.  Lowry will be a nice play to finish T10 this week.

Sungjae Im (+1500)

I’ll ride and die with the iceman all day long.  Like Webb, Sungjae Im has a great track record at Sedgefield.  One T20 and two T10 finishes since 2019.  The downfall is he’s only played it three times. Im is incredible within the ball-striking category. He gained over five strokes OTT and five APP at the 3M Open, the first time he’s done that in his career.  It’s going to come down to the flat stick with Sungjae.

Im has also been very successful on Bermuda courses. two that come to mind are the Sony and Heritage where he had some nice finishes. He does a fantastic job in finding the right angles OTT and being in the best position to hit greens in regulation. The Iceman is in great form and has been really striking the ball well. I like Sungjae in all different spots this week, potentially a victory.  

Value Plays

Si Woo Kim (+2200)

Si Woo Kim is one of my bigger plays this weekend. I was on him last week at the Rocket Mortgage and really liked what I saw.  In the last three years, he has finished this tournament T5; not to mention, winning it in 2016. Kim has 1.50 strokes gained per round on average over 20 rounds, which is the third best average of anyone who has played this event for that duration. He for sure is on the risker side, but with how he has been playing and previous success at Sedgefield, I will be having multiple plays on Kim this weekend.

Corey Conners (+2400)

Corey Conners is someone who I am really going to get behind. I feel like the man is due to capture a title since his last in 2019 at the Valero. Conners has gained strokes OTT in 38 of his last 39. Let that sink in. Given his elite ball striking ability, gaining strokes on the field in that category 11 out of the last 13 tournaments, he has been much better with the flatstick.

If we go back to the Players Championship, Conners ranks around 25thin putting gaining 0.35 strokes/round with the flatstick which is a huge upgrade from where he was. This is better than Shane Lowry, who does it well with the putter and a big-time contender this week. He also gains 8% of fairways on the field. The big issue with Conners is closing the door. Will he put himself in the best position for a victory come Sunday in North Carolina? I am optimistic here and smell a big-time week for Conners.

Dark Horses

Tom Kim (+3200)

We were not writing this piece without talking about the name Joohyung aka “Tom” Kim.  The man is an absolute machine.  T7 at the Rocket Mortgage, a great two weekends at the 3M and Open Championship, and a T5 at the Scottish Open.  I am not sure if there is anyone hotter than Tom Kim at the moment.  Tom Kim is highly accurate OTT and gains 12.7% of fairways off the field.  Looking at stock market DFS, without a win Tom Kim returns you 100% ROI every week on average over the last 10.  I will for sure have some plays on Tom Kim this week.

Adam Long (+5500)

Look at a guy like Adam Long. He has four T25 finishes in a row, a T12 at the RBC, and gains at least one stroke on the field 58% of the time. He’ll be very comfortable and hungry for a victory back in his college state of North Carolina where he attended Duke. If it is a birdie-fest week (which it probably will be), Long is a great take with the value at hand. 

I’ve seen a ton of elite stuff with Long these past few tournaments and its time he puts his craft to the test. His value combined with his ball striking, approach play, and putting can be an absolute problem and even a bigger problem for sports books. Rip the Long T20 and leader after Round 1 like your life depended on it. Really excited for the 29-year-old out of Jupiter, Florida this week. I may sprinkle a W with Long as well.

Picks

Outright:

• Sungjae Im (+1500)
• Si Woo Kim (+2200)
• Corey Conners (+2400)
•   Adam Long (+5500) 

Top 5:

• Sungjae Im (+310)
• Si Woo Kim (+600)
• Corey Conners (+490)

 Top 10:

• Sungjae Im (+200)
• Shane Lowry (+210)
• Si Woo Kim (+330)
• Corey Conners (+290)

Top 20:

• JT Poston (+210)
• Will Zalatoris 
• Adam Long (+280)
• Brian Harmon (+160)
• Tom Kim (+130)
• Aaron Wise (+175)

Leader After Round 1:

• Adam Long (+6000)
• JT Poston (+5000)
• Billy Horschel (+3700)

Bag Parlay (+5567): Sungjae T10, Si Woo T10, Conners T20, and Will Z T20.

Let’s be great folks.

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