Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Wide Receivers

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The release of the NFL schedule means two things. Media teams trying to outdo each other’s release videos (the Chargers won, in my opinion), and radical predictions about what the schedule means for real-life and fantasy teams alike. Typical fantasy football strength of schedule articles focus on fantasy points allowed or another stat like yards or touchdowns. Those statistics are helpful but they lack a crucial element. Expectations.

To address this issue, I collected all of the weekly fantasy outputs of all running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends since 2010. By looking at the typical fantasy points needed to earn an RB1 performance (a Top-12 rusher for the week), a threshold of 17.3 fantasy points is identified as the marker for an RB1 performance. This process was repeated for wide receivers and tight ends at the fantasy-relevant markers with WR1, WR2, TE1, etc. Hitting this threshold doesn’t guarantee that a player is exactly a Top-12 wide receiver, for instance. But it is a fitting barometer to determine if a given week’s output would typically be a Top-12 performance.

Thresholds

Armed with these thresholds as well as each player’s weekly output it was time to determine which defenses allowed these types of games. With a bit of spreadsheet magic, it is fairly easy to calculate how many of these performances each defense gave up.  This is useful but inevitably leads to questioning who was putting up these performances. It should be expected that a player who would finish the year as a Top-12 running back would put up RB1 numbers on a typical week. So the next step was identifying how many of these RB1 performances were given up by a particular defense to rushers that wouldn’t finish the year as an RB1.

A quick note before jumping into the numbers – Strength of Schedule is notoriously flimsy as a metric. These numbers and assumptions are based on last year as a whole and do not account for changes to the defense via free agency, draft, and coaching changes. There is value in attacking weak defenses that have not made adjustments. However, any strength of schedule metrics should be viewed as tie-breakers at most. They should not be the only statistic used to justify a good/bad fantasy football pick.

Teams With Soft Schedules For Wide Receivers

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have the best possible schedule for wide receivers if last year’s numbers hold true for the upcoming season. Not only do the Eagles face off against teams that allowed the most WR1 performances but also the most WR2 and WR3 performances. AJ Brown joins DeVonta Smith with four home games against five of the weakest pass defenses from last year. Minnesota, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. 

New York Giants

Daniel Jones and company have been underwhelming lately but should be lined up for a rebound in 2022. The Giants wideouts, led by Kenny Golladay, face off against defenses that have given up the second-most WR1 performances as well as top-ten in both WR2 and WR3 performances. If Jones can make some progress as a passer, this offense could produce sneaky fantasy value as none of the pass catchers are being drafted highly in any format. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady is returning for another year of football and is being greeted with a top-six schedule for his pass catchers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (when he returns from injury). Not only do the Buccaneers get a great schedule for WR1 performances, but they also have a soft schedule for WR2 performances as well. Godwin’s ACL recovery could jeopardize his start of the ‘22 season. That could open the door for Russell Gage to have some early opportunity for fantasy success.

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Teams With Tough Schedules For Wide Receivers

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers move on from Ben Roethlisberger to a quarterback competition between free agent signing Mitch Trubisky and first-round rookie Kenny Pickett. If the quarterback situation wasn’t enough to raise questions for this offense, they also face one of the most difficult schedules for receivers. The Steelers’ pass catchers do not get a single match-up against any of the top-five defenses in giving up WR1 performances. This could cause struggles for Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and rookie George Pickens. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes lost his best target of his early career when the Chiefs sent Tyreek Hill to Miami. Mahomes got some help during the draft when the team picked up Skyy Moore in the second round and signed JuJu Smith-Schuster along with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Unfortunately, the schedule makers did no favors for the Chiefs as they are tied for the second most difficult schedule for WR1 performances. 

Cleveland Browns

The Browns are the team tied with the Chiefs for the second hardest schedule for WR1 performances. Unlike the Chiefs though, the Browns do not have the luxury of being led by Mahomes. Cleveland might have Deshaun Watson but he might also be suspended this season. Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and rookie David Bell will get a boost if Watson is able to play all season but they still have an uphill battle against defenses like the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Houston Texans. The Texans are surprising, I know, but they only allowed four WR1 outings last season.

Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

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