2022 Fantasy Football Prospect Success Indicator: Post-Draft Report

Welcome to the 2022 Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) Post-Draft Report.

If you missed the Pre-Draft Report, want to learn more about what goes into the Prospect Success Indicator model and/or see the entire 2010-2022 Prospect Success Indicator Database follow the links below:

• 2022 PSI Pre-Draft Report
• 2010-2022 Prospect Success Indicator Database
• Prospect Success Indicator: Official Database and Calculations

What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match the profile of a Top 24 wide receiver.

PSI Hit Rates by Tier

• The first table shows you the total amount of wide receiver prospects to go on to have at least (1) Top 24 season by tier
• The second table shows you the total amount of Top 24 seasons those wide receivers delivered by tier
  • Ex: In Tier 1 – 90th percentile – 34 wide receivers (48%) have hit and have to date provided 112 Top 24 Seasons (60.5%).

Prospect Profile Terms and Glossary

• PSI Rank: is the percent to which the prospect profile closely matches that of the historical top 24 profile.
  • FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
    • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football.
• Rookie ADP: ADP data is brought to you by FFFaceoff rookie draft data
• Injury Risk Rating: Injury data is brought to you by Ethan Turner (@ETurnerFF_PT) and his 2022 Rookie Injury Guide
• PSI Player Comp: these are the prospect to prospect comps based on size, athleticism, and age-adjusted college production.
• Actionable Takeaway: You can use this as a data point in your process to help determine who may be over/undervalued in rookie drafts.

Below are the post-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top three tiers of wide receivers in the 2022 class.

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TIER 3 – 70^TH PERCENTILE – ~10% HIT RATE

Bo Melton – Seattle Seahawks – 7th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 71.5%
• Injury Risk Rating: Unknown
• Rookie ADP: 4.11

Overview: Bo Melton is an intriguing late-round flier to keep tabs on. He led Rutgers in receiving for the last 3 years of his career, although he never cracked 650 yards in any year. This was in large part to the conservative offense and really poor QB play at Rutgers. At the Combine Melton put up a blazing 4.34 forty-yard dash to go along with an above-average vertical leap (38 inches) and 20-yard shuttle (4.10). It’s safe to say Bo Melton is not lacking in athleticism. He goes to a situation where it will be difficult to break out given that Lockett and Metcalf are both lightyears ahead of him don’t the depth chart, and even if they weren’t, Drew Lock will be his Quarterback. Melton is someone to monitor on the waiver wire but don’t need to walk away within rookie drafts.

• Player Comp: Phillip Dorsett

Garrett Wilson – New York Jets – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 73.5%
• Injury Risk Rating: 2.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.03

Overview: The first controversial ranking of the 2022 class. Garrett Wilson originally missed the cut in the pre-draft rankings, which raised the first red flag for his probability of hitting, and that caused quite the uproar among readers. Wilson is loved by many draft analysts and fantasy players alike and It’s easy to see why. Let’s list the positives. Wilson’s highlight reel is impressive, he went to OSU which produces a lot of NFL wide receiver talent, and Wilson ran a 4.38 forty-yard dash at the Combine. Most importantly he went in the 1st round of the Draft.

While all of that is impressive it’s hard to ignore that he failed to take off in that offense until his final year. In 2019 he was the WR4 on his team, during the covid shortened 2020 season he failed to lead the team in receiving yards despite playing 1 more game than Chris Olave, and in 2021 he was again the WR2 on his team, and this time was out-played by +600 yards by a true freshman. When you’re not the #1 guy on your team you’re going against the 2nd or 3rd string cornerback each week and that context needs to be accounted for. One thing to note, is that OSU hasn’t had the best track record of centering its offense around its best future NFL talent (see: Burrow, McLaurin, Thomas) maybe Wilson is the next one in line, but that sounds more like hope, and hope is not a strategy.

It’s why you’re reading this. Finally, of all the 1st round picks in the database that did not get a tier 1 grade they saw their hit rate cut in half (30%) compared to (62%) of those who achieved both.

• Player Comp: Jerry Jeudy

George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 76.5%
• Injury Risk Rating: 6.0 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.09

Overview: George Pickens is one of three 18-year-old breakout stars that the Devy community has been excited about for years. While it’s nice to see the early breakout age, that alone doesn’t tell the whole story. Pickens’s career was derailed by an ACL injury and a pandemic that limited his production following his freshman year. Luckily, he was able to come back for a few games last season and looked every bit like his old self. Analytically he checks a lot of boxes but doesn’t overly impress you. In addition, the rumors around his slide were not due to a lack of talent but rather a potentially difficult person to work with.

All that is purely speculative, it will be important to monitor for any truth to rumors. Luckily for Pickens, he went to perhaps the best franchise for someone to learn how to be a pro and eliminate any off-the-field concerns. This is the franchise that has handled a variety of difficult receivers (Brown, Buress, Bryant). However, if he proves he can’t make it work in Pittsburg I would be hard-pressed to believe he can make it anywhere else. This is his shot.

• Player Comp: Justin Hunter

Jalen Tolbert – Dallas Cowboys – 3rd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 78.7%
• Injury Risk Rating: 4.25 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 3.06

Overview: Jalen Tolbert is one of two small school prospects that pop in this year’s model. If you have followed me for a long time you know I love rooting for the small school guys and Tolbert is no different. Tolbert had the highest dominator rating of the class this year at 46-percent. Dominator rating on its own is not all that predictive but what I want to see from a small school guy is obliterating his competition and this shows he did just that. Tolbert didn’t flash any elite athletic traits at the combine but he was solid all around and checked every box. Finally, Tolbert was drafted with solid day two capital in the third round. He landed in Dallas where they just traded away Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup is still recovering from an ACL tear. This offense should throw a lot and Tolbert is in a great situation to take advantage of this opportunity.

• Player Comp: Marvin Jones

Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 79.5%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.5 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.08

Overview: Chris Olave is the other half of this year’s Ohio State duo. Olave enters the draft after choosing to stay in school for another year and the decision paid off by going in the middle of the first round of this year’s draft. Olave had a great career at OSU where he led the team in receiving yards two years in a row before being supplanted by a freshman last season. Olave went to the combine and opened some eyes by running a 4.39 forty. Olave never dominated his competition with a dominator rating below 30-percent (27-percent) for his career. Olave doesn’t strike me as a go-to number one receiver that you build an offense around. I think Olave is more likely to settle in as a solid number two at the next level and do very well in that role.

• Player Comp: Dante Pettis

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TIER 2 – 80^TH PERCENTILE – ~24% HIT RATE

Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 82.4%
• Injury Risk Rating: 6.5 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.07

Overview: Jameson Williams is personally my #3 receiver in this class and I’m not afraid to admit that it might be in part due to Jaylen Waddle FOMO. After two lackluster years at OSU where he couldn’t beat out Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, Williams transferred to Alabama. A lot of people have pointed to this as a concern, and they’re not entirely off-base, it is a concern. I’m just not sure it’s as big as people make it out to be. A few years ago transferring was a huge red flag, but now it’s commonplace, also OSU does not have the best track record for featuring its best future NFL talent (See: Burrow/McLaurin). While you can look at that as a concern I can turn that argument around and say he went to Alabama – the school that’s turned out four first-round picks – and instantly took over the number one receiver role. That’s equally as impressive and balances the scales does it not? It’s not like he went to Tulsa (no offense) and broke out then that argument would hold more weight.

Williams is fast, broke out at reasonable age despite being buried at OSU, and turned it into a first-round pick selection. The ACL injury is a concern as I expect him to not contribute to the level he would normally as most tend to struggle in their first year back but I think year two will be wheels-up for Williams as Detroit should also have a new quarterback then as well.

• Player Comp: Will Fuller

Romeo Doubs – Green Bay Packers – 4th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 84.6%
• Injury Risk Rating: 4.0 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 4.02

Overview: Romeo Doubs is an under-the-radar black box prospect. I say this because outside of performing at the Senior Bowl he had to sit on the sidelines due to an unknown knee injury and missed the Combine and Pro Day. On film, he doesn’t look overly athletic, but he doesn’t appear to be a sloth either so I think we can expect him to be athletic enough for the NFL. Last two years, Doubs was the number one receiver for Nevada, putting up back-to-back thousand-yard seasons. His quarterback was Carson Strong who has arm talent, but even if you put injuries aside, is not a good QB so Doubs has proven he can operate and succeed with poor quarterback play.

From an analytical view, he broke out at age 19, posted a dominator rating of 30-percent, and enters the league at 21 years old all big feathers in Doubs’ cap. He may not be an overly exciting prospect but he checks all the boxes. Romeo Doubs provides the best hedge against the masses that chase Christian Watson.

• Player Comp: Leonard Hankerson

Wan’Dale Robinson – New York Giants – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 85.2%
• Injury Risk Rating: 3.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.11

Overview: Wan’Dale Robinson is a highly productive analytical/film darling whose only flaw is his diminutive stature. Sound familiar? Of course, it does, we have seen someone of this ilk almost every year and most recently with Rondale Moore just last year. Now I’ll never turn away a good prospect just because of his size (Moneyball anyone?) but the NFL historically has. Maybe with Moore and Robinson, the tide is starting to turn but I still need to see it to believe it. I think NFL coaches, under the constant pressure to win, look at these types of players and go “Am I really going to put my job on the line by betting on him?”. Can Wan’Dale break out? Absolutely. Will the NFL give him a chance? Who knows.

GMs and scouts might be fans but at the end of the day coaches make the decisions and biases (as silly as they can be) are real. When you factor in draft capital, profile, and ADP Wan’Dale might be the biggest steal of the draft.

• Player Comp: Mario Alford

Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills – 5th Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 85.4%
• Injury Risk Rating: 4.25 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.09

Overview: Khalil Shakir entered the draft as this year’s “Gabriel Davis”. A lesser-known prospect who checks all the pre-draft boxes but is projected to go later than his talent suggests. Then a funny thing happened, the Buffalo Bills selected him in the fifth round because of course they did. The same process that led me and the Bills to Davis in 2020, led us both to Shakir in 2022. Buffalo said the same thing about Shakir they said about Davis, which is he was a third-round prospect who fell and in large part due to a deep receiver class.

Now Shakir isn’t perfect, in fact, he enters the draft with a rather long and consistent list of lower-body injuries which is probably why he fell to the fifth round. Davis entered with no injury concerns. Shakir should be able to come in and compete for the slot role with Jamison Crowder. If he ever takes that role just remember what Cole Beasly did with it in 2020 and know the upside is there.

• Player Comp: CeeDee Lamb

Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 87.8%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.5 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.12

Overview: Jahan Dotson enters the draft following in the footsteps of recent Penn State star receivers Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson. Dotson was Devy darling who entered college to massive hype only to be a bit of a letdown through his sophomore year. Just when hope was all but lost Dotson turned it around and delivered a breakout junior year. I think the combination of Wentz + McLaurin + Dumpster fire franchise will scare off some folks but this is why I preach ignoring landing spots. By this time next year, Washington could have a new QB and McLaurin could be gone. In the meantime, what’s preventing him from being the WR1 as of today? McLaurin is good but not above being unseated. ironically enough his comp is Darnell Mooney.

Remember when Mooney was competing with Allen Robinson? How did that work out? All of this is to say anything can/will happen and all those discounts are baked into his ADP. He’s the final first-round receiver who is also going the latest in ADP. If you’re drafting near the turn, draft him and thank your league mates.

• Player Comp: Darnell Mooney

David Bell – Cleveland Browns – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 87.9%
• Injury Risk Rating: 1.5 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.01

Overview: Flashback two years ago and we all thought Rondale Moore and David Bell were perhaps the top receiver prospects. Flash forward and Moore is struggling in Arizona and Bell showed up to Indianapolis and had one of the all-time combine implosions you’ve ever seen. Normally I wouldn’t care too much about Combine results but when it’s this bad it can’t be ignored as easily. He failed every event he participated in and it was even close. Since 2010 only six receivers have gone on to register a Top 24 season after running a +4.60 forty-yard dash and only two ran +4.65 and one of them (Keenan Allen) was injured when he ran. 40 times arent everything but Bell would be an outlier on that alone and an even bigger outlier when you factor in the rest of his results.

On the bright side, Bell was an early breakout age star (18) and dominated while sharing the field with Rondale Moore. While it’s clearly possible he can have success, he’s still a profile that comes with a lot of caution flags.

• Player Comp: Mohamed Sanu

Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 88.1%
• Injury Risk Rating: 3.0 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 2.04

Overview: Christian Watson is one of the biggest risers of the off-season. Entering the process he wasn’t on most people’s radar until he went to the Senior Bowl where he instantly became the talk of the town. Watson followed up an excellent Senior Bowl performance with an even better Combine performance. If David Bell imploded, Christian Watson exploded. He came out of the Combine with his draft stock tied to a rocket with talk he could go day 1. Despite a pristine athletic profile Watson struggled to dominate at NDSU. Sure he broke out at 20 and has a career dominator rating of 35-percent but for a guy with his profile on that level of competition I would’ve liked to see more but to be fair that’s purely subjective. Watson is a fifth-year senior and those prospects have hit at the lowest rate (3-percent) of all prospects but if you’re going to bet on one, it would be Watson.

• Player Comp: Stephen Hill

Treylon Burks – Tennesee Titans – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 88.9%
• Injury Risk Rating: 6.75 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.03

Overview: I have been following Treylon Burks for some time now. It’s easy to fall in love with the player on film. How many guys who are 6-2 225 do you see pulling away from defenders and registering 22 MPH on the field? Answer: Very few. Given his size and ability, Treylon is the most exciting player with the ball in his hands in this class. Treylon let people down by not running a 4.40 forty at the Combine as many had anticipated. However, his 4.55 time is plenty good it just didn’t meet Twitter’s expectations of him. Treylon does enter with a few red flags. The first is his injury history, he comes in with the highest risk rating of all receivers not named Justyn Ross. Burks tore his ACL as a Senior in HS in 2019, in 2020 he didn’t miss any time but had some recurring knee issues throughout the season. Knee issues are always a concern, but they are an even bigger concern for players of his size.

It may not happen today, tomorrow, or even this year, but eventually, those knee issues will more than likely creep up again, and when they do it won’t be pretty (See: Kelvin Benjamin). Finally, throughout the draft cycle, the rumors pointed to some potential weight/work ethic issues. Just the hint of these issues is a huge red flag, the last time I caught wind of this issue with a highly drafted receiver it was N’Keal Harry. Hopefully, these were just false rumors as a part of the draft gamesmanship that occurs among teams and nothing more.

• Player Comp: Alshon Jeffrey

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TIER 1 – 90^TH PERCENTILE – ~48% HIT RATE

Drake London – Atlanta Falcons – 1st Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 90.3%
• Injury Risk Rating: 3.5 – Moderate Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.04

Overview: Drake London was the first receiver taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. London checks all the boxes you look for. Early breakout-age? Check. High dominator rating? check. Early entry age? Check. Teams number one receiver? Check. While London was able to check all the meaning production boxes there was one that remains a giant mystery and that’s his athletic profile. London suffered an ankle injury late in the season that prevented him from being able to participate at the NFL Combine or have enough time to prepare for his Pro Day. While many are concerned about his athletic ability, I am not. He may not have tested as an elite-level athlete but I highly doubt he would’ve laid a “David Bell” egg either. All that matters is that he’s athletic enough and I think we can all agree he very likely is. London is the safest pick in this draft although I have questions about his ceiling as a fantasy asset given his play style.

• Player Comp: Mike Williams

Tyquan Thornton – New England Patriots – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 90.9%
• Injury Risk Rating: Unknown
• Rookie ADP: UDFA

Overview: I am as surprised and dumbfounded as you are. During the pre-draft process, Tyquan Thornton popped in the model and I admit I had to quickly research who this guy was because no one on Twitter was talking about him as a top prospect. As a result, I figured he was a lock for early-day 3, but low and behold the New England Patriots must’ve read my pre-draft report– kidding – because they selected him in the 2nd round ahead of another player we will be talking about shortly. So what does PSI like about him? Everything. He meets all the production thresholds, enters the league at the tender age of 21, and ran a blazing 4.28 forty-yard dash. However, Thornton has a lot of biases working against him and his ADP.

First, the fantasy/draft community is down on Thornton. Second, he’s from Baylor and recently Baylor has been unable to deliver a top receiver prospect (Coleman, Mims) so people will likely helmet scout, finally, he got drafted by the Patriots who have arguably had the worst look at drafting receiver we have ever seen. All this makes Thornton a screaming value play against the overly confident folks carrying these biases. The reality is his profile plus the NFL draft capital is all the confirmation we look for, and to throw that out simply because Twitter wasn’t on him early, or because he went to “the wrong school” or got drafted by the Patriots is just bad process. Take the discount on a good player and thank your league-mates for their biased discount.

• Player Comp: Paul Richardson

Alec Pierce – Indianapolis Colts – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 94.0%
• Injury Risk Rating: 2.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 3.09

Overview: Another player I did not expect to be talking about in this tier when I kicked off this process but this is why I do it. Alec Pierce was a pre-draft PSI darling when he jumped out of the model as a tier 1 prospect, then he went and got drafted in the second round by the Indianapolis Colts which further strengthened his profile. Pierce was Desmond Ridder’s number one option at Cinncinati. Many point to Pierce’s lack of production – no thousand-yard season – as a negative and maybe they’re right but Desmond Ridder/Cincinnati could also be looked at as a big reason why that didn’t happen. Just watch Alec Pierce vs. Alabama, he was open a lot but Cincinnati couldn’t get him the ball. While he may not have had a thousand-yard season he did dominate the receiver production to the tune of 35-percent dominator rating over his career. He also ran a 4.33-forty-yard dash and a ran poor 7.13 three-cone drill. At six foot three two hundred eleven pounds does all that remind you of anyone? DK Metcalf-lite.

• Player Comp: DJ Chark

Skyy Moore – Kansas City Chiefs – 2nd Round Pick

• PSI Rank: 95.8%
• Injury Risk Rating: 3.25 – Low Risk
• Rookie ADP: 1.03

Overview: When I started analyzing this 2022 class I would’ve bet my bottom dollar that I would be writing about Drake London or Treylon Burks in this spot but when the wheel stopped spinning it landed on Skyy Moore. Skyy does not come from the traditional power 5 schools, rather he played college football in the MAC at Western Michigan. Skyy broke out as a freshman and dominated at a small school with a strong 40-percent dominator rating. Skyy is not an imposing receiver standing at five-ten one hundred ninety-five pounds. Despite his lack of size he still managed to have the biggest hands out of the whole class at ten and one-quarter inches.

Moore hit the lottery by being drafted in the 2nd round and going to the Kansas City Chiefs. He enters a depth chart that just lost Tyreek Hill and where Travis Kelce is on the wrong side of 30. He also has the added benefit of being paired with one of the most electric quarterbacks in the league, Patrick Mahomes. I think Moore has the potential to be the Rookie of the Year in 2022 and for that reason, and all the rest mentioned above, is why he is my #1 wide receiver in this class, and given his ADP he isn’t being treated like it.

• Player Comp: Golden Tate

Thank you for reading. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @ProFootballPSI

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