2023 Rookie Bust Candidates 1.0
With the optimism of rookie draft season finally starting to creep in. I wanted to highlight a few favorite prospects and explain why they will be a bust for fantasy football purposes in the NFL. In addition, I understand that people, including myself, need to be corrected most of the time. I plan on giving you a reason for these prospects’ success and the path of least resistance for them.
Sit back and enjoy the read. I hope this helps you formulate a case for and against some of the best prospects in this class. Continue reading for some of the rookies with plenty of upside, yet are potential bust candidates for your dynasty fantasy football teams.
QB Anthony Richardson
Bust Potential
We all know about Anthony Richardson‘s legendary NFL combine performance. There is no doubt about his abilities as an athlete on the football field. The scary part is that Richardson needs to be more consistent when delivering the football and struggled to get on the field early in college.
First off, Richardson is a tempting prospect coming out of Florida. With certainty, the former Gator has the highest ceiling of any of the quarterbacks in this class. If you had to pick one quarterback out of this class to finish as a top-six quarterback in their first five years in the league, Richardson would be the top individual receiving votes by a landslide.
Furthermore, a shallow floor comes with Richardson’s sky-high upside. He will struggle if he is thrown to the wolves wherever he lands. Inconsistencies will get the best of him, and mistakes will pile up. With that said, most areas that Richardson struggles with are coachable.
https://twitter.com/Crack3rJax19/status/1618330659562598402?s=20
Inexperience is going to play a part at the next level. 2022 was Richardson’s first entire season starting in the SEC. His career completion percentage is just 54.7%. There have only been 11 quarterback prospects since 2004 that have a worse completion percentage.
| Name | Draft Class | Career Completion Percentage | Top 6 Finish | Top 12 Finish |
| Anthony Richardson | 2023 | 54.7% | TBD | TBD |
| Nathan Enderle | 2011 | 54.6% | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie McNeal | 2006 | 54.6% | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Hackenberg | 2016 | 54.6% | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2007 | 54.5% | 0 | 1 (Year 2 – 15.5 PPG) |
| Bradlee Van Pelt | 2004 | 54.5% | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Shockley | 2006 | 54.2% | 0 | 0 |
| James Killian | 2005 | 54.1% | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 2011 | 54.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Walter | 2005 | 53.5% | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian McPherson | 2005 | 51.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2005 | 50.7% | 1 (Year 3 – 15.8 PPG) | 1 (Year 3 – 15.8 PPG) |
Continually, out of the list above, only Derek Anderson and Tyler Thigpen finished as top-12 quarterbacks at some point in their careers. Anderson was the only one to have a top-six quarterback fantasy finish.
In correlation to the inaccuracies, four percent of Richardson’s career plays were turnover worthy, leading to a lackluster 1.6 touchdown/interception ratio. Both of these statistics are below average.
Proper coaching can help Richardson with his passing deficiencies. If he lands with a team that doesn’t properly develop him correctly, his NFL career might be rocky. Subsequently, the rest of his career would be an uphill battle.
Upside Potential
We always knew that Anthony Richardson was a great athlete. However, we didn’t think he would be one of the greatest athletes to test at the NFL Combine. Ever. Seeing Richardson showcase his skills at the Combine and demonstrate that he is a better athlete than Cam Newton was when he entered the NFL.
Florida's Anthony Richardson is listed as having the highest relative athletic score amongst quarterbacks all-time pic.twitter.com/urawcEHxTA
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) March 6, 2023
While his completion percentage is well below average, it doesn’t always tell a complete story. Comparatively, many different factors go into this statistic. Variables that would count against the quarterback are throwing the ball away, the receiver dropping the ball, a batted ball at the line of scrimmage, etc. Moreover, Richardson’s passing statistics are still such a small sample size.
Furthermore, Richardson’s rushing upside is what everyone is drooling over. He is incredibly talented on the ground, and rushing production will cover any passing deficiency. There is a chance Richardson is a superstar in fantasy but an uninspiring NFL quarterback.
Despite the inconsistencies and lack of college production, the landing spot will matter quite a bit. If Richardson lands with the right coaching staff and in the right situation, that lets him progress and develop at his own pace. The sky’s the absolute limit, and Richardson could end up breaking fantasy football.
RB Devon Achane
Bust Potential
As a proud part of the Devon Achane hive, this blurb hits differently. I am optimistic about Achane’s career outlook. However, something undeniable is that he is a smaller-statured prospect. Achane measured 5 feet 8.5 inches and weighed 188 pounds at the NFL Combine.
Since 2005, running backs that were drafted and measured a similar size to Achane hasn’t been as successful as you’d like them to be. Only three of 11 listed have had a top 24 finish throughout their care. Furthermore, Darren Sproles was the only running back to finish in the top 12.
Consequently, history and the numbers tend to speak for themselves. I project Achane as a weaponized receiving back in the NFL. Comparatively to D’Andre Swift, I expect him to get less than 14 carries a game. With running backs, talent absolutely matters, but in the end, volume is king.
Furthermore, If Achane isn’t receiving the volume he deserves, it will be an uphill battle to build a career in the league. He will need to be hyper-efficient with his touches in the NFL to be successful and support a meaningful role on a team.
Upside Potential
As with all the other prospects that I featured, I want to lean toward the numbers. Achane’s production profile is excellent. Please see the table below.
| Year | Games Played | Rushing Attempts | Yards | Rushing Touchdowns | Receptions | Yards | Receiving Touchdowns |
| 2020 | 6 | 43 | 364 | 4 | 5 | 97 | 1 |
| 2021 | 12 | 130 | 910 | 9 | 24 | 261 | 1 |
| 2022 | 10 | 196 | 1102 | 8 | 36 | 196 | 3 |
While I don’t think Achane will be a “workhorse” running back in the NFL, he proved in college that he could handle the load. In 2022, he had games where he tallied up 20, 25, and even 38 carries.
In addition to his production, Achane has legitimate track speed. He ran a blazing 4.32 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Combined with his NFL Combine results, you can tell his speed is on another level compared to some defenders. While he might not be an enormous back, he can take a swing pass or a toss to the end zone anytime.
Devon Achane highlights set to the “Mission Impossible Theme” feels appropriate since he always runs like he’s being chased. Top. End. Speed 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/7BwMGKDskk
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) February 26, 2023
Even more, Achane is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Believe it or not, Achane had a higher PFF Receiving grade than the beloved Bijan Robinson (Achane 80.4 vs. Robinson 73.9). All things considered, I project him to be a great receiving option out of the backfield in the NFL.
With the upside and the home run ability Achane possesses, he could be an outstanding value in your dynasty rookie drafts. Throughout the NFL Draft in April, we will see how NFL teams value him and what draft capital they are willing to spend on him. Comparatively, we will see if his size impacts his career arc.
Kashon Boutte
Bust Potential
Kashon Boutte’s journey from Devy darling to almost untouchable for me in rookie drafts this year has been fascinating to watch. He was electric his first year, and everyone was excited he would be the next great wide receiver to come through LSU. However, his second and third years at LSU told a different story.
For Boutte, in his second year, he seemed to be picking up some steam and building off of his first season. Unfortunately, he injured his ankle in mid-October 2021 and had multiple surgeries to help resolve the issue. Media sources reported that Boutte’s ankle wasn’t 100% until June 2022.
Boutte’s absence in the Spring allowed for the emergence of Malik Nabers throughout the 2022 season. While Nabers commanded 100 targets last year, it seemed that Boutte was an afterthought in the LSU offense.
| Year | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Slot Rate | Dominator Rating | PFF Grade |
| 2020 | 10 | 45 | 735 | 5 | 6.6% | 22.2% | 72.4 |
| 2021 | 6 | 38 | 509 | 9 | 47.4% | 21.5% | 75.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | 48 | 538 | 2 | 72.1% | 11.6% | 64.9 |
The lack of production throughout Boutte’s third year was alarming but plausible. On the other hand, you can’t ignore his lackluster performance at the NFL Combine. Boutte’s RAS score is an unofficial 4.80 via RAS Information.
Since 2004, only eight wide receiver prospects have received a RAS score in the 4.8’s. There has only been one individual to score as a top-24 wide receiver. The average point between the eight players per game is a measly 3.7 points per game.
| Name | Draft Class | RAS (At Draft) | Career PPG | Top 24 Finish |
| Jordan White | 2012 | 4.89 | 0.8 | No |
| Brandon LaFell | 2010 | 4.88 | 9.1 | Yes |
| Kelvin Harmon | 2019 | 4.88 | 4.2 | No |
| Justin Hardy | 2015 | 4.87 | 3.3 | No |
| Slade Bolden | 2022 | 4.86 | 0.0 | No |
| Tandon Doss | 2011 | 4.85 | 2.3 | No |
| Dede Westbrook | 2017 | 4.84 | 7.6 | No |
| Ryan Switzer | 2017 | 4.83 | 2.33 | No |
Furthermore, being an elite athlete isn’t the only indicator of success at the wide receiver position. Star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins scored a 4.94 RAS score back in 2013. That being said, Hopkins is obviously an outlier.
It is easier to bet against Boutte after his subpar performance at the combine and out-produced during his last year at LSU. Overall, a lot needs to go right for Boutte to be successful in the NFL.
Upside Potential
It is clear that Boutte has the skills to be successful. There’s no doubt he showed it in college. Continually, Boutte has the size to be successful in the NFL.
On the contrary to several other broad receiver prospects this year, size is not a concern of mine for Boutte. In addition to his size, Boutte had an early breakout age of 18.3.
Overall, he feels like this year’s version of George Pickens. A player with talent broke out early and produced his first year in college, and then a mystery about why they fell off. The big difference is that Pickens is a much better athlete and 3 inches taller than Boutte.
Pickens was the talk of the league around mini-camp season and had a great rookie season. Let’s see if Boutte can follow a former SEC wide receiver and navigate his complicated road to a solid NFL career.
Luke Musgrave
Bust Potential
The next player I want to talk about is Luke Musgrave. The main reason that I am not as optimistic as most individuals in the fantasy space is that he was such a low producer in college.
With tight ends, you want elite athletes. That being said, Musgrave checks the box in that regard. Furthermore, you want players who produce at a high level in college. That’s how you end up with a difference-maker in the position. However, college production is where Musgrave falls short.
| Year | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Dominator Rating |
| 2019 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0.5% |
| 2020 | 6 | 12 | 142 | 0 | 7.7% |
| 2021 | 11 | 22 | 304 | 1 | 9.7% |
| 2022 | 2 | 11 | 169 | 1 | 6.5% |
The low dominator indicator points out that Musgrave could not take advantage of the small number of opportunities given to him. In correlation with my previous statement, he is incredibly raw as a tight end prospect.
He struggles with blocking and hasn’t played more than 350 snaps in a single season. To put that into perspective, Darnell Washington played 616 snaps throughout the 2022 season. Musgrave played 131 snaps throughout his senior season, so his snap share was trending upward.
In continuation of the lack of experience, injuries have been a big issue throughout Musgraves’s career. Last season seemed incredibly promising after the first two games against Boise State and Fresno State. Unfortunately, Musgrave injured his MCL, which knocked him out for the season.
With so many incredible tight end prospects in this draft, it seems much easier to go with another prospect like Sam LaPorta. They will be drafted in a similar range in the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts, too.
Upside Potential
As I mentioned before, Musgrave checks all the boxes regarding his athletic ability. I am not worried about that part of his game. Musgrave has an Athleticism Score of 115.8 via PlayerProfiler. Here’s how that lines up against other tight ends in this class.
| Athleticism Score | 2023 Tight Ends Class | 2023 Class Overall | All Time Tight Ends | All Time Overall Ranks |
| 115.8 | #3 (of 14) | #16 (of 199) | #15 (of 457) | #166 (of 5558) |
As you can see, Musgrave is an athletic monster. Moreover, in the final year of Musgraves’s college career, he was starting to emerge as a receiving threat for Oregon State. He was on pace to surpass his best overall route run throughout the 2022 season before the injury.
In addition to his increased routes, he nearly doubled his yards per route run (YPRR) and his targets per route run (TPRR) from previous seasons. It seemed like this was the year for the Musgrave breakout.
I can see why some projections have Luke Musgrave as a potential Top 50 pick.
Mid-4.4, low-4.5 long-striding athlete at his size, with 35 5/8” arms and a dominating wingspan. The upside is outrageous.
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) February 2, 2023
His career and fantasy outlook depends on whether he can continue to develop into a receiving threat for whatever team drafts him and if he can stay on the field. He has all the skills to succeed, but will the red flags in his production profile get the best of him?
Conclusion
We are going to get a lot of things wrong when evaluating prospects. There will always be an outlier or two. Hopefully, the information I provided you today helped validate your thoughts about some of these prospects or helped you challenge your process.
Either way, this is one of the best times of the year, and I am excited to see when these players get drafted in April. Stay tuned for part two as I tackle another four prospects in this year’s draft class. Follow me on Twitter and check out our rookie profiles and dynasty rookie ADP.
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