So many rookies with bust potential popped into my mind that I had to create a second part of this series. With the optimism of rookie draft season finally starting to creep in, I will highlight a few of my favorite prospects who have bust potential. Additionally, I’ll explain why I think they will potentially be a bust in the NFL for fantasy football purposes. 

In addition to that, unfortunately, I can’t tell the future. More than likely, I will be wrong about some of these players. Fantasy football is sometimes volatile and just a part of the game. Because of that, I plan on giving you a reason why these prospects will either succeed or bust for fantasy football purposes. 

In case you missed Part 1, you can check it out here. Continue reading for Part 2 of my rookie bust candidates for the 2023 rookie draft class. 

QB Will Levis

Bust Potential

With everyone focused on C.J. Stroud’s near-perfect NFL Combine performance and Anthony Richardson’s athletic showcase. Will Levis seems to be on the outside looking in. Levis had a good showing at the NFL Combine. Furthermore, I expect him to be an early 1st Round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Here are a couple of reasons I am worried about his career and fantasy outlook going forward.

Firstly, Levis tends to take a lot of sacks. He is currently sitting at an 8.3% career sack rate in college. In the 37 times Levis was sacked last season at Kentucky, he accounted for -107 adjusted rushing yards. Please see the table below compared to the other quarterbacks in this class. 

Name	Sacks	Career Sack Rate	Adjusted Rushing Yards
Will Levis	37	8.3%	-107
Bryce Young	18	5.5%	185
Anthony Richardson	14	3.7%	654
C.J. Stroud	12	2.9%	108

The statistics above could be a result of a couple of different factors. It could have been Kentucky’s offensive line or the lack of talent at wide receiver. These problems could easily be on Levis, too. I fear he lacks the awareness to get rid of the ball promptly. Comparingly, this shows the inability to sense his internal clock. 

Mistakes will happen if he lands in a situation where the offensive line is below average. Like Richardson, Levis struggles with ball placement, which is tough to correct at the next level. While Richardson is a mechanically good thrower, Levis relies on his arm strength.

Levis can zip the ball but needs to improve upon reading defenses. He tries to power the ball through tight coverage throughout his film. Bad reads and holding on to the ball too long are a recipe for disaster. These mistakes are something NFL defenses will love to exploit. 

Upside Potential

The most prominent claim for Levis is that NFL teams still love him even after a poor Senior season. That being said, a franchise will take a shot on Levis in the 1st Round so that he will get a viable opportunity. Additionally, he is a great leader and a gamer on the football field. Overall, he will do whatever it takes to win.

Additionally, Levis has all of the tools to be successful. He is a playmaker who has a cannon for an arm. On top of that, he throws the deep ball effortlessly and can make all the shorter throws required as an NFL quarterback.

Moreover, Levis ran a Pro-style offense at Kentucky, so the transition into an NFL offense won’t be as steep as some other quarterbacks in this class.

All in all, his landing spot will be a crucial indicator of his potential success as an NFL quarterback. While he possesses all the skills to be successful, we will have to wait until late April to see which franchise drafts Levis.

RB Tank Bigsby

Bust Potential

Tank Bigsby started off his college career by winning SEC Freshman of the Year in 2020. It was quite the start to a career for a bruiser running back. Watching Bigsby power through SEC defenders was exhilarating. 

While I am incredibly excited to see Bigsby play in the NFL, I am equally as terrified. Bigsby’s college career arc is similar to a roller coaster ride. After Bigsby’s first year, his efficiency and production dropped. 

From the table, you can see a breakdown of some advanced statistics. Conditionally, you can see that Bigsby suffered a severe drop in his Box Adjusted Efficiency rating. BAE tells us what a player did against box counts relative to his teammates in similar situations.

	Rush Attempts	Rushing Yards	Raw YPC	YPC+	Box Count+	Box Adjusted Efficiency Rating (BAE)	Relative Success Rate (RSR)	Breakaway Conversion Rate (BCR)
2020	138	834	6.0	1.48	0.08	149.2%	11.5%	29.2
	Percentile (among CFB RBs)		82nd	90th	65th	93rd	91st	56th
2021	223	1099	4.9	-1.24	-0.13	82.4%	-1.2%	30.3%
	Percentile (among CFB RBs)		54th	20th	29th	24th	46th	58th
2022	179	970	5.4	-0.032	-0.07	105%	-5.3%	44.4%
	Percentile (among CFB RBs)		67th	44th	39th	56th	28th	82nd

*Table and statistics per Noah Hills Tank Bigsby Breakdown

With BAE, 100% is in the 50th percentile and is considered average. Comparatively, in 2020, Bigsby was blowing the other running backs in the same backfield out of the water production-wise on fewer carries.  On the contrary, Bigsby was well below average in 2021. The other Auburn running backs were simply outperforming him.

In addition to his BAE, his Relative Success Rate (RSR) dropped significantly after his first year. RSR shows how often Bigsby succeeded with his carries in college compared to the other running backs at Auburn.

Bigsby needed to be more efficient with an increase in carries compared to his teammates. I would have liked to see him progress and continue to build on his incredible freshman season.

The lack of production or efficiency could have been because of the emergence of Jarquez Hunter, who averaged 6 yards per carry in 2022. Either way, Bigsby struggled in college compared to other running backs in the same situation. 

Subsequently, it is tough to see a future where Bigby succeeds in the league if he can’t outperform even more talented backs that he will be up against in the NFL.

Upside Potential

The first thing you can point your finger at for Bigsby’s lack of success in his 2021 and 2022 seasons is former Auburn Head Coach Bryan Harsin. Auburn was a mess the moment Harsin took the head coaching job there.

Harsin’s incompetence could have impeded Bigby’s progression. In addition to Harsin’s coaching qualms, the offensive line was a mess, too. In 2020, the year Bigsby excelled, Auburn’s offensive line ranked 18th in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards metric. Comparatively, in 2021 Auburn’s offensive line ranked 59th in that same metric.

That said, Bigsby has the size to succeed in the NFL. I worry about smaller backs, but Tank is 6 feet tall and 210 pounds. He checked the metric boxes and showed his abilities at the combine. In addition to the metrics, Bigsy is elite in the open field.

 

Bigsby has demonstrated he can be an elite producer in the SEC. His success depends on what version of Tank we see in the NFL. If it is the 2020 version, you will get a steal in rookie drafts. If that is the case, the team that drafts him in the NFL Draft will be ecstatic.

WR Josh Downs

Bust Potential

To start, I thought Josh Downs looked great at the combine. Routes look fluid, and his gauntlet runs look flawless, so skill is not the issue. The biggest thing that I worry about with Downs is his size. 

In the last 10 years, there have been 23 players drafted that measured 5′ 9″. Some big names including Jaylen Waddle, Marquise Brown, and Elijah Moore.

The majority of the players on this list had below-average careers. Out of the list above, only two guys finished in the top-24 wide receivers at some point in their careers. Those guys are Jaylen Waddle and Marquise Brown. You might say well, Downs has a great chance to do that.

While I think Downs is very talented, the most significant difference between the above guys who finished as top-24 wide receivers is their speed. Waddle ran a 4.37, Brown a 4.33, and Moore a 4.35. Comparatively, Downs recently ran a 4.49 at the NFL Combine.

Speed was supposed to be Downs calling card, so not testing a bit faster hurt him. Hopefully, he takes some time off his 40-yard dash time on his pro day, but we must take the data for what it is worth.

Upside Potential

As a big Downs fan, I am optimistic about his career outlook. He would be perfect in a system that needs a smaller slot receiver. He is an elite route runner with a significant change of direction for a receiver, with a massive 38.5-inch vertical.

Year	Receptions	Targets	Yards	Touchdowns	Dominator Rating
2020	7	10	119	3	6.5%
2021	101	144	1335	8	35.5%
2022	94	116	1029	11	26.4%

Downs is just missing the height and a little faster 40-yard dash time. His size didn’t impact his production in college. Please see the table above. Knowing that he was very successful in college gives me hope that he will be successful in the right system.

Furthermore, draft capital is going to tell us a lot. Right now, via Grinding the Mocks, Downs is projected to go in the mid-second round. If a team drafts Downs early in the second, you can assume they will have a plan for him. 

We will have to wait and see if Downs has a better pro day than his NFL combine showing and how that will potentially help his draft stock. It will be interesting to see if Downs can overcome his size and be successful in the NFL. Some, not many, have done it before. He would be an outlier, but it would be a great story.

TE Darnell Washington

Bust Potential

The second biggest riser after the NFL Combine has to be the behemoth himself, Darnell Washington. To preface, Washington is a talented prospect and will succeed in the NFL. While everyone is high and mighty, I will tell you why he will be a bust for fantasy football purposes. 

The first point I want to mention is that Washington excels as a blocker. Blocking will be a limiting factor in his upside as a pass catcher. While in the NFL, you want guys that can do both. For Fantasy purposes, you want your tight ends to excel in the receiving game because that’s what scores you fantasy points.

You saw this impact him while he was at Georgia. At best, he was the 5th option in the receiving game in 2022. It wasn’t just Brock Bowers earning more targets in front of him. In addition to Bowers, it was Ladd McConkey, Kenny McIntosh, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint.

In Washington’s best season at Georgia, he accounted for 8.3% of the receptions and 10.2% of the receiving yards. Washington ran a route on 41.7% of the snaps he played throughout the 2022 season.

Player	College	Year	Routes Ran	Targets per Route Run	Team Receiving Yards Percentage	College Dominator Rating
Darnell Washington	Georgia	2022	257	0.17	10.2%	8.3%
Michael Mayer	Notre Dame	2022	331	0.31	30.0%	33.2%
Zach Kuntz	Old Dominion	2021	321	0.25	24.8%	29.9%
Dalton Kincaid	Utah	2022	368	0.35	25.5%	25.7%
Sam LaPorta	Iowa	2022	340	0.30	32.3%	23.8%
Tucker Kraft	South Dakota State	2021	324	0.25	22.4%	21.8%

In the table above, you can see his best season compared with some other tight ends in the class. As you can tell, Washington is well below the others in all four categories. All of the other tight ends listed above earned close to two times as many targets per route run compared to Washington.

They were all a crucial part of their weekly offense scheme, while Washington seemed an auxiliary. Georgia has a very run-dominant system, but so does Iowa. Iowa won and scored as little as three or seven points, but LaPorta found a way to be productive.

I think Washington will be a successful NFL tight end. Teams are going to love drafting a guy who makes blocking this easy. Alternatively, he must command more receiving game work to be relevant for fantasy football. 

https://twitter.com/jontweetssports/status/1632174794551570436?s=20

Upside Potential

The first thing that comes to mind on how Darnell Washington is going to body my opinion that he will bust completely is his Relative Athletic Score. For his size and speed, it is what you want to invest in when it comes to rookie tight ends in dynasty fantasy football.

Athleticism Score	2023 Tight Ends Class	2023 Class Overall	All Time Tight Ends	All Time Overall Ranks
117.4	#2 (of 14)	#7 (of 199)	#9 (of 457)	#86 (of 5558)

For a guy who is 6′ 7 and 264 pounds, he should not be running the 40-yard dash in 4.64 seconds. On that notion, I believe he will get very high draft capital. I predict he will get drafted in the late first or early second rounds of the NFL Draft. A team is going to invest heavily in this rookie.

Moreover, I can see Washington becoming an elite red zone option. Can you imagine another 6′ 6, 260-pound red zone monster? How about Jimmy Graham in his prime? While Graham had a 38.5-inch vertical instead of Washington’s 31-inch vertical, you get the point.

Washington is going to tower over some defender in the NFL, and good luck trying to go up with him to highpoint the ball. With the tight end position in fantasy, touchdowns, and usage separate the mid-level options from the select options.

 

What I did like to see from Washington was his progression in the receiving game during his final year at Georgia. While he wasn’t a top option in 2022, he still made strides as a receiver. Hopefully, he becomes a focal point of an offense or at least the second or third option for a team in the NFL.

Washington is going to be an impactful blocker at the next level. Teams will see him as an extension of the offensive line, which, in turn, will get him on the field. It is to be determined if Washington will find a compelling role in the receiving game for a team. That is what will tell us if he will be a success in fantasy football or not.

Conclusion

Like Part 1 of this series, I hope you either found conviction in your opinions or it challenged you on some of your favorite prospects. To reiterate, I can’t see the future. 

All this being said, I am bound to be wrong. However, I wanted to provide statistical data on why I am somewhat pessimistic about some of these prospects. Furthermore, I wanted to dig into their outlook on potentially being fantasy relevant.

Either way, this is one of the best times of the year, and I am excited to see when these players get drafted in April. Stay tuned for part two as I tackle another four prospects in this year’s draft class. Follow me on Twitter and check out our rookie profiles and dynasty rookie ADP. 

---

Trending Now

Superflex Rookie ADP

Dynasty Articles

2023 Rookie Profiles