The 2024 NFL Draft is nigh! Teams will be looking to rookies to fill holes and fantasy football fans will be looking for rookies to target in upcoming drafts. But how to project which rookies will be able to make an impact on their new team? Today, I’ll dive into the teams with the biggest offensive needs ahead of the NFL Draft.
2024 NFL Draft Team Needs
One common approach is to look at targets, snaps, or fantasy points vacated when a player leaves. We are going to take another approach! Notably, we will be looking specifically at the percentage of offense. In other words, how many of the team’s offensive snaps were intended for the player to be central to the play? Specifically, either the rusher, passer, or target.
Vacated targets only look at openings in the passing game but fail to grasp openings for rushing. Meanwhile, vacated snaps only look at being on the field not being a central part of the offense – actually getting the ball or being the target. However, the percentage of offense is an attempt to connect a player’s actual usage in the offense and its connection to fantasy points.
Below are six teams that have lost significant parts of their offense this offseason, how they might address it in the draft, and what that could mean for fantasy football. Enjoy!
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have lost wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. Just the two wide receivers alone have opened up an average percentage of the Bills’ weekly offense equal to 21.09%. Toss in the loss of the running backs (combined percentage of the offense 15.51%) and the Bills have lost 36.6% of their weekly offense and 537.1 PPR points.
Furthermore, the Bills have 10 picks in this year’s draft with two in the top 60. Look for them to draft a wide receiver and possibly a running back as well. Needless to say, this would instantly increase the rookie value of the new guys donning a Bills jersey.
Potential Draft Picks
No. 28 Overall: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
AD Mitchell’s 4.3 speed and route-running make him an ideal target for the Buffalo Bills offense. With his ability to stretch the field and create separation, Mitchell adds a dynamic element to Buffalo’s passing game. His versatility and big-play potential will fill in the schematic gaps left by their recently departed talent.
No. 144 Overall: Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky
Ray Davis, the seasoned power back from the University of Kentucky, boasts the strength and experience needed for the Buffalo Bills. With his reliable running style, Davis can provide the Bills with a reliable option as an “innings eater” of sorts to keep Josh Allen and James Cook fresh for explosive chunk plays.
Los Angeles Chargers
The departure of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelly at running back leaves this backfield wide open. Additionally, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen (along with Jalen Guyton) have left the Chargers searching for a new offense. The Chargers have let last year’s top four skilled players in percentage of offense walk leaving a staggering 67.39% of the offense up for grabs. Not to mention over 575 PPR points from last year are gone.
The Bolts are clearly rebuilding and will need to do something big to avoid wasting an affordable year of Justin Herbert. Despite the team’s nine draft picks, including the fifth overall pick, it will be difficult to trust anyone out of the gates for the brand-new Chargers offense.
Potential Draft Picks
No. 5 Overall: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Malik Nabers, the LSU wide receiver, brings speed, agility, and precise route-running to the Chargers’ offense. His ability to create separation and convert routine catches into house calls will complement quarterback Justin Herbert‘s arm talent perfectly. Nabers’ versatility and playmaking skills would make him an exciting headliner for the Chargers’ receiving corps.
No. 69 Overall: Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
What is there to say? This is about as chalk of a pick as one could project in the draft. More than the need, the personal ties are there, with Corum’s college coach, Jim Harbaugh, coming back to the pros after a stent with the Michigan Wolverines. Finally, his no-nonsense running style would be a welcome addition to a running back room led off by Ravens retreads.
Dallas Cowboys
This time last summer speaking ill of Tony Pollard’s presumed fantasy goodness was met with pitchforks and torches. Pollard will now suit up with the Tennesee Titans and the Cowboys will be looking to fill the 222.6 PPR points and 26.89% of the offense that Pollard used to fill. Keep in mind, the Cowboys also lost Michael Gallup. These combined losses were responsible for over 30% of the Dallas offense last year.
Unfortunately, Dallas only has seven picks this year. Despite needing a rusher, they would be better off replacing the offensive and defensive linemen who walked in free agency. It will be incredibly difficult to project anything but good things for whoever America’s Team starts in the backfield.
Potential Draft Picks
No. 56 Overall: Jonathan Brooks, RB, Texas
Jonathan Brooks, from the University of Texas, would seamlessly integrate into the Dallas Cowboys’ roster, boasting a skill set tailored to their offensive scheme. Having rehabbed from a torn ACL with the Cowboys’ medical team, Brooks already has familiarity with the organization’s facilities and personnel, facilitating a smooth transition. Although he may start the 2024 season on the PUP (Physically Unable to Participate) list, if anyone knows of his medical availability, it would be the Jerry Jones brain trust in Dallas.
No. 87 Overall: Javon Baker, WR, UCF
Javon Baker from UCF is a perfect fit for the Dallas Cowboys, stepping into the Michael Gallup “Z” role seamlessly. With his speed and well-rounded profile, Baker mirrors what the Cowboys had in Gallup before his ACL tear.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon was the RB6 in PPR last year and the RB9 in average percentage of the offense. He is now in Houston and the Bengals will need to look for a replacement. Recently, the Bengals acquired Zack Moss, who did his best as Jonathan Taylor’s understudy. However, he will need more to fill the hole left by Mixon. Additionally, Tyler Boyd left taking, just shy of, 10% of the offense (9.41% to be exact) and 144.8 PPR points with him.
Furthermore, the Bengals have ten draft picks with four in the top 100. A running back could be on the shopping list in the second or third round and at least one more wide receiver to play along with Ja’marr Chase. As for Tee Higgins, his future in Cincinnati remains to be seen. The Bengals down year in 2023 could create a nice buying opportunity for whichever RB gets drafted by the Bengals to team up with a healthy Joe Burrow.
Potential Draft Picks
No. 49 Overall: Trey Benson, RB, FSU
The Bengals might lead off the run on rushers in the draft by taking Benson. He’s arguably one of the top picks in both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts at his position. At 6’1’ and 221 pounds, he has the size needed to be an everydown back in the NFL. Add his playmaking ability and he could be the Bengals’ replacement for Mixon.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson must feel like Will Smith in the final episode of Fresh Prince, sadly looking around an empty room. Not only did the Vikings move on from quarterback Kirk Cousins. Additionally, they lost running back Alexander Mattison, wide receiver K.J. Osborn, and a pair of linemen. Much like Pollard, Mattison was expected to produce for fantasy but failed to live up to expectations. In the end, the rusher still managed a fifth of the team’s offense with 21.4% of the offense.
Moving forward, Aaron Jones is the presumed starter for the Vikes in 2024. However, the team may use one of its seven picks in rounds four through seven on a rusher to compete with Jones and incumbent Ty Chandler. Additionally, the Vikings have two first-round picks with picks 11 and 23. However, the need at quarterback and on the defensive side of the ball will probably be addressed before fantasy positions. Unfortunately, I do not think Sam Darnold is the future of this offense.
Potential Draft Picks
No. 11 Overall: Rome Odunze, WR, WAS
Okay, this is a long, long shot but if the Vikings do not love a quarterback early and can’t find a trade partner the best player available approach could lead them to Odunze. Not to mention, I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to talk about one of my favorite prospects. He has the size, speed, and ball skills combination that easily make him a starter on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens
If Justin Jefferson was looking at an empty room, Lamar Jackson was looking at a pile of rubble. The off-season wrecking ball demolished the Ravens’ offense from 2023. Baltimore lost four offensive linemen, and three wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr., Devin Duvernay, and Laquon Treadwell. Additionally, they lost their two starting runningbacks, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. Not to mention, Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook. As well as backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Not all of the losses were impact players but they did combine for 335.8 PPR points and Gus Edwards averaged 19.19% of the offense through his full 17-game season.
The Ravens won’t need to spend a top selection on running back as they picked up Derrick Henry to be their workhorse. Henry was one of only three backs to play a full season (weeks 1-18) and averaged over 30% of his team’s offense. For what it’s worth, Christian McCaffrey and Rachaad White were the other two. The Ravens need another wide receiver and could use one of their three top-100 picks on the position. Ultimately, running back depth behind Henry should be a target with one of their nine picks.
Potential Draft Picks
No. 30 Overall, Ladd McConkey, WR, UGA
The Ravens could add to their history of taking wide receivers in the first round by using the 30th pick on McConkey. Notably, th UGA receiver can find soft spots in zones and run crisp routes. The innovative plays he put on tape in 2023 could be an added weapon in Lamar Jackson’s arsenal.
If you enjoyed this, be sure to follow all of the NFL Draft content from your friends at the Faceoff Sports Network! Shoutout to Lane Dobbins for working together with Seth Keller to write this article!
