5 Dynasty Sells Before the 2023 Fantasy Football Season
5 Dynasty Sells Before the 2023 Season
We are less than two weeks out from the start of the 2023 season. While casual fantasy football players are just checking back in, dynasty managers have been burning the midnight oil all year to find any edge they can get.
The final build-up to the season always presents opportunities to sell off players to over-enthusiastic buyers.
Here are five players dynasty managers should consider selling before the start of the 2023 season.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
My main problem with Fields has been his current dynasty price. Fields has consistently been a mid to late-round one startup pick this year.
This is quite the projection, given that Fields regressed as a passer in 2022.
According to Sharp Football, Fields ranked 35th among QBs throwing with no pressure, 44th when in the pocket, 41st against man coverage, and 40th against zone coverage. These marks were all worse than his 2021 rookie season.
We have to factor in that the Bears’ ecosystem is not quite as friendly for Fields compared to Jalen Hurts in 2022 and Josh Allen in 2020. There’s a different head coach and general manager combination than the ones who drafted Fields in 2021. The Bears are also armed with two first-round picks in 2024 to potentially move up for a QB.
No Discounts Here
We were in almost this exact situation with Hurts one year ago. The Eagles were armed with multiple first-round picks, had a coach who didn’t draft Hurts, and were ready and willing to pull the trigger if Hurts did not develop.
Yet, Hurts was being drafted in late Round 2 and early-mid round three in my startup drafts last year. We were getting a discount on him due to the above question marks.
There is no such discount on Fields. We are paying the full premium. He is an extremely risky pick at his price.
He’s undeniably talented, but the fact remains he is only 5-20 as a starter. The Bears will have to make a call on Fields’ fifth-year option this offseason. Should he look the same as a passer, this regime may look elsewhere for a quarterback.
Exit Strategy
If you can sell for a haul, I would strongly consider doing so. Haul is the keyword here, though.
Fields is being drafted in startups next to the likes of Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. It would take at least three firsts and potentially another QB to even consider moving them. If you can fetch that for Fields, you should think about going for it.
Yes, Fields could deliver on the hype and be worth every penny. However, there’s more risk here than preferred for a first-round startup pick.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Four years into Jeudy’s career, and it feels like all we have done is make excuses for him.
Year 1: Playing with Drew Lock
Year 2: High ankle sprain
Year 3: Russell Wilson/Nathaniel Hackett disaster
Look, in fairness to Jeudy, there’s some legitimacy to each of these.
However, when I look in Garrett Wilson’s direction and see the situation he was able to overcome last year, it makes these excuses for Jeudy much harder to overlook.
Jeudy had a strong close to 2022, finishing as the WR6 from weeks 13-18, according to Fantasy Pros. He also finished as WR24 in our Consistency Score ahead of DK Metcalf, D.J. Moore, and even Garrett Wilson.
Despite this strong close, Jeudy has yet to register a 1,000-yard season or even crack 70 receptions.
There’s also a scenario where the Broncos spread the ball among all their receiving options. This could render them all relatively useless for fantasy purposes.
Neither Jeudy nor teammate Courtland Sutton have been overly impressive thus far. Sean Payton’s offenses have traditionally featured running backs prominently in the receiving game. The Broncos have backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine at their disposal.
There is also second-year tight end Greg Dulcich in the mix. Rookie receiver Marvin Mims, whom the Broncos traded up to acquire with Payton’s first-draft selection, is still lurking.
The fact of the matter is that Jeudy has failed to deliver on expectations since he entered the league.
Exit Strategy
Some players going after Jeudy in startups who I’d rather have:
Christian Watson
Jahan Dotson
Zay Flowers
You might be able to sell Jeudy for any of these players and maybe get a little something on top.
Find a manager who is still bullish on Jeudy, pull the trigger and bail. If Jeudy’s current hamstring injury lingers, or he once again fails to deliver on expectations, the sell window will close for good.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
It might seem sacrilegious to have arguably the best receiver in the league listed as a sell, but that’s where I’m at with Adams. Placing him on this list has less to do with his current play and is more about his potential future play.
Adams is currently in his age 30 season and will be turning 31 in December. While he can still be productive for another year or two, the age cliff is fast approaching for a long-time fantasy stalwart.
One of the most pivotal strategies in dynasty is to try and ensure you’ve never left “holding the bag” on a player. Ideally, you want to try and move off aging players before their play falls off completely.
Rebuilders should be looking to move Adams off their rosters and get the best return possible. A first-round pick, plus a younger player, would be ideal.
Exit Strategy
My approach with Adams has been slightly different than the traditional contender/rebuilder angle. I’ve been looking to move off Adams in all my leagues. Regardless if I’m a contender or a rebuilder.
I’ve been looking to acquire a younger wide receiver whom I believe can still help me win now and acquire draft capital. This said capital can then be used to acquire another winnow piece or be used as part of a soft “reload” should the season go sideways.
A player like Brandon Aiyuk would be the perfect target for an Adams trade. Aiyuk is young and talented, but his current dynasty outlook is murky, given the target competition around him. In the right circumstances, he could fully break out in a year or two. Any player that fits this mold is a target for my Adams trades.
Adams is under contract through 2026. There is, however, a possible out in the contract after the 2024 season. The Raiders built that in so they could move on should his play decline.
Adams is the type of talent who could produce late into his career. In dynasty though, it’s always better to get out a year early than stay a year late. The difference in trade return is massive and can help keep you in the optimal “constant” championship window.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
This one pertains more to Superflex leagues.
Howell had a year to sit and learn in 2022. He drew the start in last season’s finale against the Cowboys and flashed some athleticism.
Washington has been singing Howell’s praise all offseason. He also had a stellar performance in prime time against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 of the preseason.
Sam Howell vs #Ravens:
🏈19/25
🏈205 total yards
🏈2 TDs
🏈 123.4 passer ratingA solid game for the QB👀#NFL | #NFLTwitter | #Commanders | #HTTCpic.twitter.com/0Bkq23hqts
— Fanzine NFL (@NFLFanzine) August 22, 2023
Managers would be wise to use this opportunity to sell.
The Commanders get an easy opener against the injury-ridden Arizona Cardinals. After that, the schedule gets tougher with dates against the Bills, Eagles (twice), Cowboys (twice), Dolphins and Jets. Washington comes in ranked just 22nd in our 2023 strength of schedule (SOS) for quarterbacks.
Looking at the Commanders’ schedule, it’s plausible that Howell struggles, the losses pile up, and a desperate coach turns to seasoned vet Jacoby Brissett to save his job.
The Commanders also have new ownership in place for the first time in years. They will likely clean house if things go sideways. The new regime could look to bring in their own quarterback.
Howell is a popular player among some dynasty managers. If you’re in a spot where you can ship him off, it would be a wise move.
Exit Strategy
Some quarterbacks to consider for Howell in a trade:
Jordan Love
Geno Smith
Desmond Ridder
Love and Smith are going above Howell in our dynasty average draft position (ADP). You would have to add a piece to Howell to acquire both. That’s something I would be okay doing.
Ridder is in a similar boat to Howell. However, the situation around Ridder is more stable. There is more talent surrounding him (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson) than there is Howell.
At the end of the day, this is still a quarterback with fifth-round draft capital. Quarterbacks with this kind of draft capital aren’t given a very long leash.
If Washington is in a position to potentially snag Caleb Williams in 2024, it’s hard to see them passing on him for Howell. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Howell benched midseason if things go sideways in Washington.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Williams has had an up-and-down career and has struggled with injuries at times. He’s only had two 1,000-yard seasons. Furthermore, Williams has never topped more than 76 receptions or cracked 1200 yards in his career.
He is now another year older and is another step closer to 30. While not all receivers break down at this age, Williams has always depended more on his big frame and physical traits to get open rather than his pure route-running ability.
These are the types of players whose game can fall off hard when they do slow down.
Williams’ value is tricky, given his age and the Chargers’ selection of rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Exit Strategy
I don’t have any shares of Williams left. I offloaded my final share about a month ago:
Give — Mike Williams, 2024 fourth-round pick
Get — Tyler Lockett, 24 third-round pick
Yes, I did move from one old receiver to another, but I believe Lockett’s game will age better than Williams’. Plus, I get an additional third-round pick that I can use to acquire some other pieces during the season.
While he is under contract through 2024, the team does have an out in his contract after this season. They also seem to have Williams’ replacement lined up, with Johnston waiting in the wings.
When looking at the contract structure and the selection of Johnston, it sure looks like the Chargers are planning their exit strategy for Williams.
Time for dynasty managers to do the same.
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