Today, I’ll be covering some regression candidates for this upcoming season of fantasy football and the NFL. There are many different ways to identify and try to predict regression for players. Sometimes, it’s a player going to a new team or getting a new offensive coordinator. Other times, more competition is introduced and takes away opportunities.

There are also just players that have outlier seasons that more than likely can’t be replicated. I take a deep dive and try to find the players not likely to replicate what they did in 2022. Let’s get into it these potential regression candidates for fantasy football in 2023. 

Kenneth Walker

Right now, everyone will point to the Seahawks drafting Zach Charbonnet in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft as why Kenneth Walker should regress in fantasy football. However, Walker would’ve been on my regression list regardless of whether Seattle would have drafted a running back or not. Drafting Charbonnet just makes it even worse. 

As for negatives, Walker had the worst success rate among 100+ attempt running backs last year. Additionally, he had the worst rate of gaining positive yardage per rush out of all the running backs last year. If he wasn’t breaking off long touchdowns, he wasn’t very effective on the ground. Maybe that is something the Seahawks staff saw and the reason why they brought in competition. Now, with Charbonnet entering the backfield, Walker’s upside is limited and will more than likely take passing work away from him. This could potentially be limiting his ceiling big time. 

One other thing to point out is that Geno Smith played well last year and they added another weapon for him to throw to with rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I still believe head coach Pete Carrol wants to run the ball but this isn’t going to be nearly as run-heavy on offense as it’s been in the past. 

It seems that people still think Walker can be an RB1 and are drafting him that way so far this offseason. Right now, he’s going off the board as the 47th player and the R15 overall, per FantasyPros. Touches should go down and it’s hard to see him getting much passing down work, leaving his upside to be lacking. 

Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams ranked as RB13 last year and a big part of that was finding the end zone 17 times in 2022. He did gain 1,066 yards on the ground but when the Lions were close to scoring, Williams was the man to punch it in.

Williams left Detroit this offseason and signed in New Orleans to play with Derek Carr and the Saints. Currently, he sits as the backup behind Alvin Kamara. However, with Kamara’s legal issues pending, Williams could slide right into the starting running back role. 

Even if Williams starts in 2023, it will be hard to repeat the number of goal-line touches he will get like he did last year. Another factor is Taysom Hill’s involvement in the red zone, minimizing those scoring opportunities.

A lot would have to go in his favor to repeat the success he did in 2022. Additionally, he gets minimal work in the receiving game and he is not known to be a burner. He will have to depend on a massive workload and find the end zone a lot, which I don’t see him doing. 

Touchdown regression is coming in 2023 for Jamaal Williams in a big way. If Kamara ends up missing significant time, obviously this will change. 

George Kittle

George Kittle has been known to be very volatile throughout the years for fantasy players and last year was no different. Per FantasyPros, Kittle scored the most touchdowns he’s ever scored in a season with 11. However, he only averaged 51 yards receiving a game, which is the lowest since he’s come into the league. Additionally, he had four games in the regular season last year where he scored two touchdowns in them. 

Using our fantasy football Consistency Score, you can see below the highest of highs and lowest of lows when it comes to Kittle’s play. Outside of Travis Kelce, Kittle has the highest ceiling as far as tight end goes but has such a low floor that it is hard to rely on him week in and week out to help you win.

With how bad the tight end landscape is in fantasy football, I don’t blame anyone for targeting Kittle. Some tight ends don’t have a ceiling at all compared to Kittle. However, seeing that 72% of his touchdowns came in four out of 18 games gives me a lot of concern. 

We don’t know the status of Brock Purdy and if he will be ready to start the year. I don’t think Sam Darnold or Trey Lance would raise Kittle’s ceiling if they were starting. Overall, there are just too many questions and too many holes to poke in his game.

If you want Kittle, you’re going to have to pay a pretty good amount to get him. He is currently ranked between TE2-TE5 depending on where you are drafting. At his price, I’d rather just wait to draft a tight end and hope for some upside. 

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

A lot will change in Tampa Bay’s offense in 2023. Byron Leftwich is gone as offensive coordinator and replaced with Dave Canales. Tom Brady has retired and the most pass-heavy offense in football should change significantly. Additionally, the offensive line wasn’t very good last year and deal with a plethora of injuries. Finally, either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will be throwing passes to these guys. All in all, there just isn’t a lot to like about this situation.

We have seen Mayfield’s game in the NFL. He showed some promise early but fell off big time in Cleveland and couldn’t make anything happen in Carolina either. Furthermore, he doesn’t handle pressure well and he does not push the ball downfield. As far as a fantasy football asset, he has not been much of one. 

Unfortunately, we don’t know what Trask can do if he becomes the starter but it’s hard to see him keeping these two receivers fantasy football-relevant.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Evans’ nine-year streak of consecutive 1,000+ yards comes to an end this year. As far as Godwin goes, fantasy players can hope he gets a bunch of receptions that can add up. If I had to choose between the two, I would lean toward Godwin in this scenario over Evans. Working largely out of the slot, he could thrive off of dump-offs and short area passes. 

Overall, there just isn’t a whole lot of upside with either Godwin or Evans. Tampa Bay could easily end up a bottom-five team in the NFL and be in the sweepstakes for Caleb Williams in 2024. Both guys will be mid-round fliers in drafts and people will click the draft button because of past production. Both are very talented but as far as fantasy upside, I don’t see a whole lot coming from either. I’m passing on them in 2023.

Christian Kirk

Jacksonville seemed to turn its entire franchise around in 2022 and Christian Kirk was a big part of the change. Kirk had over 1,100 yards receiving and eight touchdowns in his first year with the Jaguars. Clearly, he was worth every penny of the big contract he got. There is only one person that is standing in the way of Kirk and repeating another big year. That man is none other than Calvin Ridley.

It’s been a while since we have seen Ridley on the field but a good reminder is needed for those who don’t remember how dominant he was in Atlanta. In his last full season in 2020, he had over 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns in only 15 games played. That includes 8 games with over 100 yards receiving. He was also playing alongside one of the greatest receivers of all time Julio Jones. A true alpha receiver and a clear WR1.

Moving forward, the Jaguars offense is loaded with talent and there are a lot of mouths to feed. Evan Engram had a big second half last year in the tight end slot. Zay Jones is still there. Travis Etienne will command a receiving role and they also just drafted Tank Bigsby who can carve out a role in the offense as well. 

I expect Trevor Lawrence to have a monster year in 2023. With that, I still think Kirk can be a very valuable fantasy asset but Ridley will be taking some production from him.

The best-case scenario for Kirk is that this turns into a 1A and 1B situation like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle or JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins. The worst case is he just ends up slightly behind Ridley as a WR2 which isn’t a bad thing. Kirk can still have a great season but he is definitely a regression candidate numbers-wise in 2023. 

Dak Prescott

The gap between top-tier and mid-tier in fantasy football is becoming bigger than ever for quarterbacks. Dak Prescott ends up being a mid-tier guy people target and this upcoming year, I’m looking elsewhere in that range. Prescott wasn’t great in 2022 by any means but there is a good chance the wheels completely fall off in Dallas in 2023. 

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore left for the Chargers this offseason, leaving head coach Mike McCarthy to take over play-calling duties. One of McCarthy’s first remarks, after he left, was pretty telling. He said: “Kellen Moore wants to light the scoreboard up. I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. I don’t desire to be the number one offense in the league.”

Running the ball to rest his defense is backward thinking to start off and has been shown to not be effective. Getting first downs should be the priority and that is hard to do when constantly running on first and second downs.

The last time we saw McCarthy calling plays, he got fired in Green Bay for how bad things got. This should be a significant downgrade from what Moore was doing with the first-ranked offense in the NFL. 

Dalton Schultz, who has been a very good player and security blanket for Prescott, left and signed with the Texans. Additionally, the Cowboys signed Brandin Cooks who has been good in the past but is an older player. It’s hard to gauge how much he will contribute behind CeeDee Lamb. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the bottom falls out on this team completely. It’s a squad that has come nowhere close to hitting their potential and has been a constant disappointment. McCarthy taking over playcalling could be the final nail in the coffin for this Cowboy run we’ve seen the last few years. Personally, I am steering away from Prescott completely in 2023. 

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