In the last five years, there have been 10 tight ends to finish in the top five in fantasy football with an ADP of TE10 or lower. The list includes Taysom Hill in 2022, Dalton Schultz and Rob Gronkowski in 2021, T.J. Hockenson and Robert Tonyan in 2020, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews in 2019, and lastly Geroge Kittle, Eric Ebron, and Jared Cook in 2018.
Overall, there has been an average of two tight ends each year who finish top 5 despite being drafted 10th or below. The common theme among all those players…Touchdowns. With the exception of Hill, every single one of the tight ends had a career-high in touchdowns with an average of 7.7.
Needless to say, when you’re drafting a tight end late, you are betting on a guy to have an outlier year in the touchdowns department. How do you predict that? You can’t. Which is why elite tight ends such as Travis Kelce and Andrews are extremely valuable. However, there are a few correlating factors including a good offense, a high snap percentage, and YAC.
Now, let’s look at tight ends outside the top 10 in ADP (per FantasyPros) that fit that description for fantasy football leagues in 2023. Keep in mind, we’re looking for three things:
- Good Offense
- High Snap Percentages
- YAC
Here are 7 tight ends who you should consider drafting late in your fantasy football leagues this year.
Tyler Higbee
Currently being drafted as the TE15, Higbee was on the field for 88% of his team’s plays in 2022. That is an insanely high rate that beats out the likes of both Kelce and Andrews. Not only was Higbee on the field frequently but he was also targeted 93.8% of the time in the red zone, according to FantasyPros.
Furthermore, Higbee was also a monster in the YAC department. He finished with the 4th-most yards after the catch for all NFL tight ends. Unfortunately, the tight end only caught three touchdowns in what was a down year for Rams’ offense. This year, however, the Rams look to turn it around with Mathew Stafford coming back. Personally, I believe it is very likely that Higbee has serious touchdown regression and outperforms his ADP.
David Njoku
Barely making the cut and being drafted as the TE10, Njoku has a similar profile that we discussed. Last year, he was on the field for 85% of the Browns’ plays. Additionally, he had the second most red zone targets in the NFL. Finally, without Deshaun Watson for most of the year, he had 338 yards after the catch.
Just like the Rams, the Browns have a chance to completely turn around their offense with Watson coming back full-time. Notably, Njoku is a bit younger than Higbee and is extremely talented since being drafted in the first round as a very raw prospect back in 2017. All in all, he brings a bit more upside in the receiving game in that regard for your fantasy football teams.
Tyler Conklin
Currently being drafted as the TE29, Conklin is a guy you can grab at the very end of your fantasy drafts or off the waiver wire. He was on the field for most of the Jets’ snaps but was stuck with a putrid quarterback room. Luckily for him, Rodgers comes into town looking to rejuvenate the Jets’ offense.
In the few times that the Jets were in the red zone, Conklin was targeted 83.3% of the time. Also, finishing high in yards after the catch in the top 10 among tight ends last year. Tied to a good offense and with no other competition, Conklin is a safe bet to outperform his career high of three touchdowns. Not to mention, he is a great late-round tight end to draft in best ball leagues.
Greg Dulcich
As just a rookie, Dulcich was on the field a lot for the Broncos. Similar to some of these other options, he was stuck in a terrible offense. There is reason, however, to believe the Broncos can turn their offense around as well.
Once Hackett was fired, the Broncos had some of its most high-scoring games in the final two games of the year. The team has now hired Sean Payton who always had a great offense every year he coached in New Orleans.
With the possibility of a much-improved offense and an even higher target share, as he enters his second year, Dulich is a screaming buy at TE16 in ADP.
Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta
It’s repeated throughout the fantasy community that you should avoid rookie tight ends. They almost never out-perform their ADP and it is easy to see why. Historically, they don’t receive a good target share and are tied to bad offenses.
However, this year, rookies Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta were both drafted to a top-five NFL offense. We haven’t seen that before. Buffalo is adamant that Kincaid will be playing, even possibly in the slot, and Detroit looks to have nobody else besides LaPorta at the tight end position.
Last year, we saw the rookies of Dulcich, Cade Otton, Daniel Bellinger, and Isaiah Likely start for their teams last year. With NFL teams being more and more willing to play rookies early, I think it’s well worth the risk to grab the two rookie tight ends. This is the year that rookie tight ends could buck the trend.
Wild Card – Chigoziem Okonkwo
First off, note that Okonkwo doesn’t fit the criteria I addressed for this article. He had a dreadful snap percentage last year and is predicted to be playing for a potentially terrible offense. However, there are still reasons to believe in the hype.
In the final 7 games of the 2022 season, Okonkwo averaged 4.4 targets per game. Additionally, he also had the highest yards after the catch per reception among the top 30 tight ends. Most of Okonkwo’s yards came fighting through contact and on big plays. Furthermore, he had the most plays of 40+ yards among all tight ends.
Looking forward, the Titans don’t look to have many receiving threats this coming season. There is a strong possibility Okonkwo becomes their second receiving option this coming year. Outside of second-year wide receiver Treylon Burks, the pass-catchers are looking a bit rough.
Overall, with the talent and explosive play, ability Okonkwo showed last year alongside an increased workload there is a world in which Okonkwo shows out. If you are waiting on drafting a tight end in your fantasy football leagues this year, he’s a great late-round option. If you’re looking for upside at the tight end position, look no further than Okonkwo.
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