What is a fantasy football breakout? I’m sure if you asked 10 people this question, you would get a different answer more often. While many have their answer to it, mine is those who outperformed their ADP by a large margin. Now, I’m not saying RB40 finishes as RB33 as a breakout.

Here I’m talking about middle to late-round picks who can make an impact on your fantasy team. These players are the kind that all of us fantasy managers look for that one player to exceed expectations. Look at last year’s class, which we’ll be going over here. Isiah Pacheco was a waiver wire addition through the 2022 season and finished as a low-end RB2. Can he repeat? Maybe, but he didn’t make this list as he’s already broken out.

Furthermore, I’ll be using FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank (ECR) and giving you players you should target in fantasy football leagues for 2023.

Kenny Pickett

Quarterback, Pittsburgh Steelers (ECR QB23)

As the only quarterback drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, Kenny Pickett has us wanting more. While playing second fiddle to Mitch Trubisky to start the season, Pickett showed traits of why he was a first-round pick. Although finishing with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions, where he made the most was in the run game. Rushing the ball 55 times for an additional 237 yards and another three touchdowns which helped him fantasy-wise especially in Week 10.

Let’s not forget that Pickett was also working with a below-average offensive line that allowed him to be sacked 27 times in 12 starts. The team added and upgraded their offensive line through free agency and the NFL Draft. The signing of Isaac Seumalo and drafting Broderick Jones and blocking tight end Darnell Washington should improve this line drastically compared to last season.

As we go into year two here, Pickett is coming in as a QB3 value. He’s one player that you have in Dynasty as a QB2 but for redraft, you can either add him late or even off the waiver wire at the moment. This value could change as we get closer to the season starting, but with the additions to the offensive line, Pickett should return high-end QB2 value with a chance to be a QB1.

Desmond Ridder

Quarterback, Atlanta Falcons (ECR QB31)

This just seems absurd. Okay, I get that in his four games as a starter, he only threw two touchdowns. Mind you those two touchdowns came in Week 18 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Desmond Ridder did show promise. Another thing to look at here as the Falcons only brought in Taylor Heinicke on a three-year deal, but reports out of camp are sounding positive on Ridder as the Week 1 starter.

If you look at his college game tape from Cincinnati, there’s a lot to love here. His rushing capabilities were there year after year. Averaging 125 attempts, 545 yards, and seven touchdowns in his career at Cincinnati, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith will utilize Ridder’s rushing upside. Add to that the drafting of Bijan Robinson, and this offense could be legit. 

With Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and a workhorse running back in Robinson, Ridder should be looking north of 100 rush attempts, along with around 400 pass attempts. Furthermore, Atlanta has one of the easiest strengths of schedules for quarterbacks. Who says Ridder can’t finish as a high-end QB2?

Rachaad White

Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ECR RB22)

Surprisingly, Rachaad White is the only running back here that makes this list. With Leonard Fournette being released and Tampa Bay not using any draft capital on a running back, it’s White’s opportunity to shine. Last season, Fournette made up for 189 rushing attempts along with 83 targets. While he did see 129 carries and 58 targets, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him north of 215 opportunities this season.

Yes, Tom Brady loved to check down to his running backs, yet I see Baker Mayfield doing the same. Although Fournette and White combined for eight total touchdowns, I can see White at least finding the endzone six times. Different offense, but look what Mayfield did last season with Cam Akers.

We are all too low on White and should be drafting him everywhere, even in redraft. Unless he’s moving up to a high-end RB2 in drafts, take this lovely ranking to the bank. 

Jameson Williams

Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions (ECR WR51)

Luckily for us, Jameson Williams ADP dropped due to his six-game suspension for gambling. While many listed him as a breakout before this, I’m holding onto him still breaking out. Coming back from a torn ACL, Williams didn’t make his NFL until Week 13. Many, including myself, expected Williams to make an immediate impact as the Detroit Lions were pushing for a playoff berth. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen and Williams was used sparingly over the final six games of the season.

Targeted a total of nine times, Williams turned that into one catch for 41 yards and a touchdown. Let’s not forget, he also had a 40+ yard touchdown reception in Week 18 against the Green Bay Packers that was called back by a penalty. Additionally, he had a carry that he took for 40 yards.

While we have to wait and see once again on Williams, he should be someone everyone targets later in drafts. This kid wants to be on the field more than anything, and drafting him as your WR5/6 will be beneficial to your success.

Treylon Burks

Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans (ECR WR35)

Going into the NFL Draft last season, I had Treylon Burks as my WR1. Once drafted, he dropped in my overall ranks but I still liked him as an overall prospect. While he didn’t show much as he battled through asthma and turf toe he turned 54 targets into 33 receptions for 444 yards and a touchdown. Finishing third in targets behind Robert Woods (91) and Austin Hooper (60), Burks is looking to take that next leap forward.

Woods and Hooper are now on different teams and Burks is looking like the de facto WR1 for the Titans.  Last season, the Titans ranked 30th (26.8) in pass attempts per game. Furthermore, the Titans passed the ball 48% of their 943 plays. Really low and slow-paced offense as we know, but Burks was the focal point last season, especially in Week 10 at the Green Bay Packers.

As of late, Burks has been killing it at OTAs. Yes, I know it’s in shorts and helmets, but compared to last year, Burks looks ready to take the next step. Being drafted as a WR3 in fantasy, Burks looks to become the next second-year breakout behind Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, along with many others.

Honorable Mentions: James Cook, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Greg Dulcich.

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