Dalton Kincaid – 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Tight End – Utah
6’4″ 246 lbs
1st Round (25th Overall) – Buffalo Bills
Interestingly enough, Dalton Kincaid only played one year of high school football as he was playing basketball before that. Kincaid then started his college career at the University of San Diego before transferring to Utah in the 2021 season. From there he shined as a player finishing with 107 career catches for 1,414 yards and 16 touchdowns in his two seasons at Utah. Unfortunately, Kincaid missed the NFL Combine because of a back injury suffered in his last game at Utah. Now, he has been cleared by doctors and is fully healthy.
Kincaid lined up in multiple spots in the Utah offense displaying his athletic ability and sure hands dropping only two passes in his college career. As a receiving tight end, Kincaid has few weaknesses. However, while he can run block fine, it’s not necessarily considered a strength.
Fantasy Football Outlook
It was clear that Buffalo needed another receiving option after last season where we saw them sign aging veterans Cole Beasley and John Brown. Additionally, Gabriel Davis was a disappointment overall. Especially for fantasy football purposes.
Furthermore, the Bills were second in the league in drops with 29 last year. They definitely needed another sure-handed weapon and it’s possible it would have been a receiver like Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba had one of them fallen into the Bills’ hands. Apparently, the Bills thought that Dallas was going to take Kincaid. So, they called Jacksonville to move up and get in front of Dallas to select him as he was the highest-graded player on their board at that time.
Kincaid will step into a high-quality Bills offense led by star quarterback Josh Allen. Last year, the Bills finished second in points per game and total yards per game. Now, Kincaid will join a tight end room with Dawson Knox who just signed a four-year extension worth $53.6 million dollars last season. But how much and how often will Kincaid be used in his rookie season with Buffalo?
Traditionally, it takes tight ends a few years to get adjusted to the league. Vernon Davis and more recently, Kyle Pitts are both good examples. Recently, the Bills play mostly 11 personnel. This means one running back and one tight end. However, the Bills general manager Billy Beane has indicated it will be sort of like 11.5 personnel with Kincaid when he is on the field. This means that Kincaid will be lined up like a wide receiver when Knox is on the field with him.
Personally, I don’t think Knox is going away as he is the better blocker and is still a good receiver in his own right. However, Kincaid brings a different skillset with his speed, athleticism, and sure hands. Knox on the other hand has always had an issue with drops.
It may take Kincaid a little while to get accustomed to the NFL, but I think it will happen sooner than later. Undoubtedly, playing with an elite quarterback like Allen certainly helps. Kincaid is a highly talented player who could one day be something close to what Travis Kelce is to the Chiefs. No, I’m not saying he will be Kelce. However, he could certainly be a major force in his offense.
In redraft leagues, it’s worth taking a shot at Kincaid at the latter end of drafts based on his potential. You will likely need to be patient with him and he may be inconsistent overall. There is also a chance he could be highly productive in his rookie season. We will have to see what else the Bills add to this offense, as there have been rumors of DeAndre Hopkins coming to Buffalo. However, if Kincaid is utilized heavily as a receiving tight end there is a chance for solid production in his rookie season. Overall, he certainly could have a better statistical season than Knox has ever had while in Buffalo.
2023 Projections:
- 55 Receptions
- 680 Yards
- 6 Touchdowns
Dynasty Outlook
Kincaid couldn’t have ended up in a better spot playing alongside Allen. Kincaid is truly a gifted player who has size, speed, and great hands. Essentially, he is a big-bodied wideout that plays the tight end position. Furthermore, he can go up for balls, make tough catches, box out, run past defenders, and is a good route runner. Overall, the talent certainly pops out when watching him on tape.
Depending on your needs Kincaid is worth a late first-round pick in both 1QB and Superflex dynasty leagues. I believe in a couple of years he can be a top-five tight end in the NFL.
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