Welcome back to another edition of Dynasty Keep Trade Cut. As we approach the midway point in the NFL season, dynasty trade deadlines may be nearing. However, even if your league does not have a deadline, managers are beginning to understand whether they’re a secure contender or a clear rebuilder. I

n this series, we look at three similarly ranked players for dynasty purposes. Here in Week 8, we’ll be looking at the running back position, and examining just how long the three may be able to produce for dynasty teams.

In dynasty fantasy football, a player’s week-to-week viability factors into their value across the season. That can lead to volatile valuations from managers and surprising trades involving the assets trending up and down. Weekly during the 2023 season, we’ll look at a trio of players who are valued back to back to back. Each week we’ll use a different source. From those rankings, we’ll discuss the three similar players that should be considered worth keeping, trading, or “cutting”, them. No, you won’t be actually cutting these players in most dynasty leagues, but that’s not the purpose of this scenario.

Keep Trade Cut

For this exercise, the keeper is the player who can sustain their current value this season and beyond. In other words, the player who should be valued most by managers or potential managers. The player worth trading is a player whose value may be buoyed by unsustainable volume. That, or is holding a level of value that may be more useful to move along from for your team’s makeup. Finally, the “cut” in this scenario is a player who is trending down or has an outlook that could change quickly, therefore being seen as the least valuable asset in the trio.

This week, we’ll be looking at a set of running back rankings from Pro Football Network. Let’s discuss the current RB21, RB22, and RB23 in these rankings, and see who has the ability to rise in the future.

Keep

David Montgomery (RB) Detroit Lions

Consistency Score: 2.99

The Detroit Lions made an incredible addition at running back this offseason. With that, David Montgomery’s fantasy football and dynasty managers are reaping the benefits.

Montgomery has proven himself as Detroit’s top rushing option this season, starting in Week 1 when he received 21 touches and scored for the Lions. In the three following games he played, Montgomery would supply two 100-yard games and five touchdowns on 67 carries. Additionally, he has received an opportunity in the red zone as well, providing top-five numbers at the position in red zone yards (74), carries (27), and touchdowns (5) this year. Overall, he’s been efficient and has shown high-end results on his way to a 17.22 points per game average in half-PPR formats.

Furthermore, Montgomery has missed two games so far this season but has given managers good numbers when healthy. Managers who have held him should expect a high price for this player, as his role and contract make him a very secure asset to own over the next few years. He’s proved himself in the red zone with vital touches and provides managers with touchdown upside.

We saw what Jamaal Williams was able to do in his final season alongside this offensive line. At this rate, we should expect these results to continue for the duration of Montgomery’s contract. However, has another talented back in his backfield in the form of Jahmyr Gibbs. Despite the high draft capitol spent on Gibbs, Montgomery has settled in as a consistent option for the team. More importantly, dynasty managers should be thrilled with him this season.

Trade

Brian Robinson (RB) Washington Commanders

Consistency Score: 2.18

Our youngest running back in the trio is the Commander’s Brian Robinson. He’s a consistent player who has found himself with a large role in the offense. Robinson has played 230 snaps for Washington, more than Montgomery’s 201 in five games and more than Najee Harris’s 195 through six contests.

Furthermore, Robinson may have the most secure hold on his backfield this season. With a recently diminished role for Antonio Gibson, Robinson has been able to put up impressive numbers. Similar to Montgomery, he has scored five touchdowns from the red zone, with four coming on the ground from 14 touches, and one through the air.

Robinson’s best game came in Week 2 in which he scored 27.9 points in 1/2 PPR formats. Obviously, this game is heavily factoring into his average of 12.33 points per game in the same format. Additionally, Robinson has been impressive in the red zone but is coming off his third straight week without eclipsing 10 carries on the ground. Of course, the Commanders had been losing in each of those games, which resulted in a more pass-heavy game script, which was detrimental to Robinson’s playing time. None of the three players we discuss in this trio are prolific pass-catchers, so while Robinson is the leading pass-catcher with 11 grabs, he is limited in that area.

Robinson has seen incredible production from the red zone, and it’s encouraging to see that usage. However, he doesn’t have exceptional physical tools and this team’s regime needs to get winning results quickly. If this team continues to play .500 football, they will need to make some changes, and while Robinson may have one more season at the helm in 2024, he should see more talented competition sooner than later. Not to mention, a possible philosophy change on offense could further muddle his value, which is not a worry we have with the volume-dependent Montgomery that we previously discussed. While Robinson is young and producing, we also saw our next player Harris do that in his rookie season. Don’t be afraid to check on Robinson’s value and be ready to move on from him.

Cut

Najee Harris (RB) Pittsburgh Steelers

Consistency Score: 1.78

Pittsburgh Steelers Najee Harris is clearly a player the team trusts in his role. Unfortunately for fantasy football managers, the team hasn’t impressed on offense. This has led Harris to a 7.36 points per game average in 1/2 PPR, and only five red zone carries. On the bright side, Harris scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 7, and it came from the red zone. Harris would finish as the RB12 in half-PPR formats last week, an encouraging result for his managers. Those same managers may be wondering how many more times it will happen, as Harris only has one other top-20 running back finish on the season. Harris has the lowest consistency score of this trio, showing he’s disappointed with his perceived value and expected results.

Harris came into the league at the perfect time to produce. He had an older Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, and the team was in desperate need of finding a rushing identity. He finished as a top-five running back in 2021 is a bit of fool’s gold, as he hasn’t shown that level of consistency in performance the past two seasons. It isn’t all his fault, Harris has even seen the highest snap percentage of the players we discussed in the trio. He has seen 54.32% of the team’s snaps at running back this season. However, talented backfield partner Jaylen Warren is taking away touches and opportunities from Harris.

Overall, this may be good news for the Steelers offense as they begin to show signs of life. However, for fantasy managers, it makes us likely keener to acquire the cheaper Warren. Harris has only eclipsed 14 carries once this season, along with 12 overall receiving targets for the season. Overall, the opportunity just isn’t here for Harris. Personally, I would try to cash out on name value while he continues to provide RB4-type numbers most weeks.

In the end, the running back position and its value is an ever-changing discussion that managers must be vigilant in maneuvering. There are young options on all these teams that can find themselves with future roles in the backfields, whether it’s the high-end ability of Jahmyr Gibbs or the talents of Jaylen Warren and Chris Rodriguez. Those running backs are beginning to find themselves integrated into the offenses, and that will affect these running backs.

All we can go off for this discussion is how we view this moment about halfway through the 2023 season, and Montgomery is the clear option managers should want to have here. He has the team’s trust in important situations and has come back from injury to regain his top priority role already this season. Finding and keeping those high-volume and highly talented backs is ideal and necessary for competing dynasty rosters, and can even be important when looking toward the future. Ultimately, he’s a great running back to have if you’re looking to win now.

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