JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) first brought up the idea of the ambiguous RB1 theory which you can read more about here. His work inspired me to do my own research and target backfields where the consensus is making assumptions when in reality it isn’t as black and white as it seems on the surface.
His theory led me to draft running backs in murky situations such as James Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafting Elijah Mitchell while fading Trey Sermon.
I will be doing a series breaking down each division and their backfields and telling you which running backs you should be targeting.
These suggestions will be gross, but you don’t need anyone telling you to target Jonathan Taylor. We are trying to get you league-winning value for free. Let’s dive in.
(*The number behind the player’s name indicates average draft position, per Sleeper)
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Buffalo Bills
- James Cook (89)
- Devin Singletary (125)
- Zack Moss (280)
- Duke Johnson (UDFA)
- Taiwan Jones (UDFA)
- Raheem Blackshear (UDFA)
Duke Johnson
The Bills drafted James Cook with the 31st pick in the 2nd Round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Cook will be given plenty of opportunities to succeed as the Bills running back. However, he is slightly undersized at 199 pounds, and he has sub-par contact balance. I have a hard time seeing him being a three-down back in the NFL.
Next on the depth chart, we have Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Singletary did finish his 2021 campaign strong, but the Bills clearly aren’t happy enough with him as they have spent significant capital on a running back in two consecutive seasons following his draft selection. That brings us to Duke Johnson.
Johnson has been a productive RB2 throughout his career, with one RB1 season back in 2017. Johnson didn’t get playing time with Miami until Week 15 of last season. From Weeks 15 to 18 he averaged 16.8 rushing attempts, 78 rushing yards, and 10.3 receiving yards. He has always been an excellent pass catcher with good size, at 207 pounds, and excellent burst. I warned you these picks would be gross.
Miami Dolphins
- Chase Edmonds (125)
- Raheem Mostert (221)
- Sony Michel (224)
- Myles Gaskin (245)
- Salvin Ahmed (UDFA)
- Gerrid Doaks (UDFA)
- ZaQuandre White (UDFA)
Sony Michel
Dolphins’ new head coach Mike McDaniel comes from a team that can make any running back a productive fantasy asset. As the 49ers run game coordinator and offensive coordinator, he made Elijah Mitchell RB26, Jeff Wilson RB32, Raheem Mostert RB25, Matt Breida RB26, and Carlos Hyde RB8 all fantasy-relevant backs. Wilson, Mostert, and Breida were all undrafted free agents. Mitchell was a 6th-round pick and Hyde was a 2nd. That brings us to a former first-round pick, Sony Michel.
Michel joined the Rams at the beginning of the 2021 season. He didn’t get playing time until Week 13 of last season. However, from Weeks 13 to 18 he averaged 21.5 rushing attempts, 90 rushing yards, and 11 receiving yards. Michel is a capable pass-catcher with bell-cow size at 214 pounds, and has great burst. Michel is currently being drafted behind Mostert and Chase Edmonds. With Mike McDaniel as head coach, I will take my shot on the cheapest running back in that offense.
New England Patriots
- Damien Harris (100)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (130)
- Pierre Strong Jr. (199)
- Kevin Harris (256)
- James White (UDFA)
- JJ Taylor (UDFA)
Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong Jr
The Patriots are the true definition of an “ambiguous backfield”. Every season they roll out a committee of running backs and you never know what to expect. 2022 is no different. Damien Harris projects as the lead back after coming off an RB14 season in 2021. However, that RB14 performance was inflated by his #2 in the league rushing touchdowns with 15, only behind Jonathan Taylor. If he finished 2022 with eight rushing touchdowns, which is still top 10 in the league, he would have finished as RB25 behind Myles Gaskin.
Harris will also be a free agent following the 2022 season and with the Patriots drafting Rhamondre Stevenson in 2021, Pierre Strong Jr., and Kevin Harris in 2022, it seems highly unlikely they re-sign him. Stevenson flashed in his rookie season and I liked him as a prospect, but given his price is similar to that of Kevin Harris, I want to take shots on Strong or Kevin Harris.
I have gone on record with my Kevin Harris love (RB4 pre-draft / RB8 post-draft) and I drafted him in every rookie draft, so he would be my cheap Patriots dart throw. However, it comes down to personal preference and I think Strong is also an excellent option for this backfield.
New York Jets
- Breece Hall (22)
- Michael Carter (117)
- Tevin Coleman (UDFA)
- Ty Johnson (UDFA)
- La’Mical Perine (UDFA)
- Zonovan Knight (UDFA)
Michael Carter
I didn’t love Michael Carter as a prospect, he is small and has poor burst. That being said, he had a solid rookie season and is an above-average pass-catcher. The Jets spent their early second-round pick on Breece Hall, who projects as a clear bell-cow back in this offense. Nonetheless, taking advantage of assumptions is how smart dynasty managers get ahead. Hall could take time getting used to the NFL, he could get injured, or he could flat out be a bust. I wouldn’t recommend making a strong effort to trade for Carter, but if he is a throw-in for a larger trade I think he is a solid addition.
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