Fantasy Football Impact: QB Josh Dobbs to the Vikings

Veteran quarterback Josh Dobbs has officially been traded to the Minnesota Vikings. Here, we’ll be breaking down the fantasy football impact and what to do with this for fantasy purposes.

With news that Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with a torn Achilles, the Minnesota Vikings made a move to acquire quarterback Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals. Rookie Jaren Hall is expected to start Week 9 against the Atlanta Falcons. However, there is a real possibility that Dobbs will take over play-calling duties, for the rest of the season, once he gets a little more familiar with the team, offense, and system. So what is the fantasy football fallout with the change under center for the Vikings? Let’s get into it.

The Good: T.J. Hockenson

Number three overall fantasy football tight end T.J. Hockenson will continue getting hammered with targets with Dobbs calling plays. So far the Minnesota Vikings are tied for third overall (with the Cardinals) with 82 targets to the tight end position and rank fourth overall with a 26% target share going to the position. Dobbs and the Cardinals have peppered their tight ends with 32.16% of the overall target share, which is the third highest in the entire NFL.

With Arizona, Dobbs split most of that work up pretty evenly among Zach Ertz and, as of late, Trey McBride. However, there is no question who the top tight end in Minnesota is and it’s reasonable to believe that it gets consolidated heavily in Hockenson’s favor.

No need to panic if you’re currently rostering Hockenson. On the flip side, he should also be considered a trade-for candidate if you don’t roster him and the current manager is floating off in a cloud of panic following the Cousins injury.

The Bad: Alexander Mattison & Cam Akers

If you’re following my “Metrics that Matter” column you know that a target, regardless of format, is more valuable for fantasy football than a rush attempt.

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Currently, the running back staff in Minnesota accounts for 52 total targets or about 17% of the team’s total target share. In 8 games with Arizona however, Dobbs has only targeted the position 31 times for 12.2% of the total target share.

If the majority of that opportunity was getting funneled into one workhorse running back, that might be fine despite the slight drop-off. However,  considering that the work is getting split more and more between Alexander Mattison and the recent acquisition of Cam Akers, with a light sprinkling of C.J. Ham every so often, it’s certainly less palatable.

Furthermore, Dobbs isn’t a quarterback who likes to check down. With 47 rush attempts himself, tied for third most on the season, and 258 rushing yards (also third most), he’s the type of quarterback who will take off and run it himself if he doesn’t like what he sees downfield.

In short, that’s not a good recipe for the fantasy football success of either Mattison or Akers.

The Really Good: Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson

In his 8 games starting for the Cardinals, Dobbs showed a strong propensity to pepper his WR1 with targets. Marquise Brown had 25.5% of the team’s targets and an impressive 25.58% Targets per Route Run. Both of which rank number one among the Cardinals’ offensive players. Brown also leads the team in end zone targets (4) and touchdowns resulting from end zone targets (2) and he has the 10th-best fantasy football Consistency Score (3.96) of all receivers. Not to mention, despite the Arizona Cardinals sporting the NFL’s worst team record-wise, Brown is the 21st receiver in total fantasy points (87.5) and the 13th receiver in Median Fantasy Points (12.7).

Overall, this suggests that Dobbs should be able to sustain the number one in Minnesota. Whether it be Jordan Addison currently, or Justin Jefferson in the (hopefully) near future, to retain plenty of fantasy value for the rest of the season.

Jefferson, in the first 5 weeks, had 53 targets (10.6/gm) and a 26% target share. More importantly, he was targeted on 26.0% of routes run. Addison, with Jefferson out, has received 23 targets (7.6) with a 20.7% target share and 25% targets per route run. Dobbs’ tendencies in Arizona suggest that he will continue that trend for his Alpha receiver. Whether or not those targets will be as valuable is yet to be determined. But at least we know the volume will be there for the top players.

Dobbs so far had consolidated most of the receiver work to Brown, however. Secondary receivers like rookie Michael Wilson (12.7%) and Rondale Moore (11.2%) had a dramatically lower target share. All things considered, there isn’t much foreseeable success for Minnesota’s secondary receivers moving forward.

Summary

All in all, the fantasy options still seem intact in Minnesota with this sudden change at quarterback. The secondary pass catchers, ala K.J. Osborn, and the running backs take a bit of a hit in value. But let’s be honest, you weren’t happy with the Vikings running backs this year anyway and if you were stuck starting Osborn, you were lost in a dark thicket of bad luck already.

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