Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets: Titans vs Steelers

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 8 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Pittsburgh Steelers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which player prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite player prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Derrick Henry Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

While the fantasy football community hoped Henry would get traded to the Baltimore Ravens before Tuesday’s trade deadline, the star running back remains in Tennessee. The former Alabama star has averaged 75.1 rushing yards per game this season, down from 96.1 in 2022. However, he has played better lately. Over the past four games, Henry has averaged 90.8 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per attempt, totaling at least 97 yards in three contests. Last week, the star running back had 101 rushing yards despite facing a tough Atlanta Falcons run defense.

Thankfully, the matchup this week is more appealing for Henry. He faces a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs this year, surrendering 115.4 per contest to the position. Opposing running backs had had at least 80 rushing yards in all but one game against the Steelers. More importantly, Pittsburgh has given up over 125 rushing yards in more games (three) this season than contests with fewer than 96 (two). With Ryan Tannehill out for the second consecutive game, expect the Titans to give Henry at least 20 rushing attempts.

Diontae Johnson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While he hasn’t found the end zone since the invention of the smartphone, Johnson remains the go-to target in Pittsburgh’s offense. In the three games he has played this season, the veteran wide receiver has averaged 8.7 targets per game, seeing at least six in every contest. By comparison, George Pickens has averaged 6.7 targets per game, with Johnson playing. More importantly, the veteran wide receiver has averaged 70.7 receiving yards per game, totaling 79 or more in both matchups since returning from a hamstring injury.

The Titans have one of the top-run defenses in the league. However, their pass defense is one of the worst. Tennessee has surrendered the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year, giving up 188.3 per game to the position. Opposing wide receivers have totaled 195 or more receiving yards in over half the games against Tennessee this season. More importantly, they have struggled against No. 1 wide receivers, giving up an average of 6.6 receptions and 81.3 receiving yards per game, including 111 or more yards in nearly half the contests.

DeAndre Hopkins Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, the star wide receiver had a massive performance with Will Levis under center. Hopkins only had six targets but caught four for 128 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Furthermore, his third touchdown in that game would have hit the over on this prop bet by itself, totaling 61 receiving yards. The former Clemson star also had a 47-yard receiving score in the first quarter. Yet, the Falcons had surrendered only 127.9 receiving yards per game to wide receivers entering that matchup.

More importantly, Hopkins has played well despite Ryan Tannehill’s struggles. He averaged 62.7 receiving yards per game before last week’s massive performance, totaling 60 or more yards in half the contests. Meanwhile, the Steelers won’t have Minkah Fitzpatrick for this game. Unfortunately, their secondary has struggled with the superstar safety in the lineup. Pittsburgh has given up the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, surrendering 195.3 yards per game. Hopkins is the only Titan with over 32 targets this season (53). Furthermore, he led the team in targets last week and should again Thursday night.

Connor Heyward Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Most non-Steeler fans have never heard of Connor Heyward. He is the young brother of star defensive lineman Cameron Heyward and the starting tight end with Pat Freiermuth on injured reserve. The younger brother has played well as the starter, averaging 23.3 receiving yards per game over the past three contests. Furthermore, he has been consistent, totaling at least 23 receiving yards in every game. More importantly, Heyward has been the No. 3 target in the passing game since taking over as the starter in Week 5.

The young tight end has finished no lower than third in targets in any game since becoming the starter. Furthermore, Heyward had the second-most targets for Pittsburgh last week, earning one more than George Pickens (six vs. five). Meanwhile, the Titans have surrendered 45.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. However, they’ve struggled lately, giving up 48 or more yards in three consecutive games. More importantly, Heyward has accounted for 76.5% of the targets and 100% of the receiving yards from Pittsburgh’s tight ends since Freiermuth went on injured reserve.

Chigoziem Okonkwo Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Many had high hopes for Okonkwo this year after his impressive rookie season. Unfortunately, those hopes got crushed when the Titans signed Hopkins. However, the second-year tight end has had some positive moments. Since Week 1, Okonkwo has averaged 21.2 receiving yards per game, totaling 23 or more in all but two contests. Furthermore, he has averaged 25.8 receiving yards per game over the past four matchups. More importantly, the former Maryland star is second on the team in targets this season (32) behind Hopkins.

Okonkwo tied for the team lead in targets last week (six) with Levis under center. Meanwhile, the Steelers have held tight ends to only 40.1 receiving yards per game this year. However, they’ve given up 42 or more receiving yards to tight ends in four of their past six matchups, including 65 or more in two of the past three games. Last week, Evan Engram had 88 receiving yards with Minkah Fitzpatrick hurt. Okonkwo should have no trouble totaling at least 25 receiving yards in this game.

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