Fantasy Football Outlook
Drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Chigoziem Okonkwo was slow out of the gates to start his rookie season.
Okonkwo would close the season strong though. His final six games included finishes of TE8, TE3, and TE7.
Entering his sophomore season, Okonkwo is primed for a bigger role. A popular breakout pick this summer, let’s take a closer look to see whether or not these expectations are warranted.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Okonkwo had Targets Per Route Run (TPPR) of 28% and a Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) of 2.83 according to our Free Fantasy Football Tools. Albeit in a small sample, these are extremely strong numbers.
Okonkwo’s YPRR in particular put him in some elite company.
What’s impressive about these figures is that Okonkwo achieved them despite only being a part-time player. He never logged more than 60% of the snaps in any game in 2022. In fact, he only cracked a 50% snap rate twice.
Tennessee made it a point to funnel targets his way whenever he was on the field. This is an encouraging sign for the future.
Road Blocks
There are, however, several hurdles to clear for fantasy success.
First is the previously mentioned playing time concerns. While he proved his worth as a receiving option, Okonkwo’s blocking ability is what kept him off the field full-time in 2022.
If Okonkwo can make improvements with this part of his game then he would be able to see a full snap share. This would provide more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Recent comments from Head Coach Mike Vrabel might suggest otherwise.
Not ideal comments from the head honcho.
Another concern? Tennessee’s offense became more crowded with the signing of DeAndre Hopkins. Second-year receiver Treylon Burks also remains in the fold. There is more target competition than we would ideally like to see for a breakout tight end. Especially when we factor in that the Titans are a run-first offense.
The Titans also check in ranked 17th in our 2023 Tight End Strength of Schedule. Okonkwo may not have many favorable matchups to take advantage of.
However, Okonkwo is just a Hopkins or Burks injury away from being locked in as the number two option.
Okonkwo’s ceiling will ultimately be determined by his ability to improve his blocking. If he does so, he can become more than just a matchup-dependent streaming option.
If you get boxed out on the elite tight ends early, Okonkwo is a nice late-round flier.
Dynasty Outlook
Currently ranked TE15 in our up-to-date dynasty football rankings, Okonkwo is one of the more intriguing young players at the tight end position.
He had strong per-route data over a limited sample in 2022, and his 4.52-second 40-yard dash was on full display when he was in the open field.
Tennessee’s passing outlook is a bit bleak, but it’s possible Okonkwo can make a year two leap and become a featured part of the offense.
DeAndre Hopkins is 31 years old and not getting younger. 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks is having a strong camp, but there are still question marks surrounding his long-term development.
Okonkwo profiles best as a TE2 option in dynasty leagues. Ideally, he is a great developmental piece behind someone like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.
His analytical profile makes him an intriguing buy option. The question is if he can develop his blocking skills enough to become a full-time player. Or, does he become another Mike Gesicki?
What Should We Do?
Okonkwo has been a trade target of mine this off-season. He’s also someone I have been targeting in startups. His analytical profile is highly intriguing despite the concerns listed above.
I have also cashed in on some shares as the hype has started to build. While I love the upside, his future has a wide range of outcomes.
Mike Vrabel’s above comments cannot be disregarded. We don’t know exactly what Okonkwo’s role will be, but he is still a player I want on my rosters.
If there’s an owner in your league willing to dance, it’s a good idea to try and add Okonkwo to your dynasty roster and see what he becomes.
He’s got the talent and analytical data to potentially be a premier fantasy tight end down the line.
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