Fantasy Football Outlook
Darren Waller was traded to the New York Giants for a 3rd round pick in May of 2023 and he is in position to be the number one target on his new team. Waller’s competition for targets proves that he is going to help Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones helm the offense. Not one other pass catcher on the team has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in their career. A group that includes Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Cole Beasley, Isaiah Hodgins, and Parris Campbell.
In 2019 and 2020 Waller finished with 1,145 and 1,196 receiving yards respectively. Since 2019, Waller ranks 3rd in catches and receiving yards for tight ends behind only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Waller played 16 games in 2019 and 2020, but only played 11 games in 2021 and 9 games in 2022. If Waller plays 17 games this season there is no reason to believe he won’t repeat the numbers he put when healthy.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
Personally, I am excited about Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt. However, I do not see them as a threat to unseat Waller as the number 1 target. Waller is set up to have a 3-4 year run as a top target for Daniel Jones who just inked a four-year contract himself.
Furthermore, Waller signed a contract extension with the Las Vegas Raiders in September of 2022. As a result, he is currently under contract with the Giants for the next 4 seasons. Waller will make a base salary of $25 million this year. However, that number is reduced to $12 million in 2024, $13 million in 2025, and $15 million in 2026.
For reference, some wide receivers set to make between $12-15 million next year include Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow, Jakobi Meyers, Russell Gage, Tim Patrick, and Allen Lazard. Looking at the market, it is obvious that Waller’s contract is a value.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Waller will turn 31 in September and I believe this is currently dragging down his dynasty value. Currently, he is TE11 in our latest dynasty football rankings. In the NFL, tight ends can be effective into their mid-30s. Additionally, any risk for Waller falling off the age cliff or continuing to struggle with injury is more than well-baked into his dynasty ranking.
Furthermore, Waller is set up to be a TE3 for the next 2-3 seasons. I would be willing to give up a late 24 1st if I was a TE away from contending. Players ranked near Waller (105th overall) that I would be willing to trade straight up for Waller include:
- Mike Evans (93rd overall)
- Kardarius Toney (96th overall)
- Elijah Moore (104th overall)
- Tyler Lockett (106th overall)
Waller is already reported to be impressive at training camp. I think once the season starts and he flashes in some games, the secret will be out and the buying window will be closed. All in all, Waller has great fantasy football upside for 2023, but his dynasty outlook is fairly uncertain.
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