Fantasy Football Sleepers – The AFC South

What is a ‘sleeper’ in fantasy sports? Basically, it is a player who exceeds their average draft position (ADP) over other players from the same position with a similar draft cost. An example of this from 2020 would be James Robinson. Few fantasy managers had any idea about the undrafted rookie before he stepped into the starting role in Jacksonville. He wowed everyone with over 1,400 total yards and 10 touchdowns, earning a spot in the top 10 of fantasy running backs.

To help you out with identifying a number of athletes who could fall into the ‘sleeper’ category, I will list one player from each NFL team that could provide a huge boost for your squad at a nicely discounted price. We’ll go by divisions for this article so you can more easily access these spicy picks.

AFC South

Houston Texans – RB Dameon Pierce

As rookies, running backs seem to have an easier time establishing themselves as pros. Since 2000, a number of rookie running backs have broken the 1,000-yard threshold including Alfred Morris, Mike Anderson, and Adrian Peterson. Dameon Pierce has a wide-open window to join those names as Houston’s rookie ball carrier.

There have been some questionable moves made by Houston in recent years, such as trading away DeAndre Hopkins and getting David Johnson in return. A less questionable choice was drafting Pierce. As a 4th Round draft pick by the Texans, Pierce has the unique opportunity to possibly help rebuild a franchise. His four years at the University of Florida saw him batter opposing defenders with power, agility, and a surprising amount of burst. In his final two college years, Pierce managed 1,449 total yards and 21 touchdowns. 16 of those coming in his senior year, while averaging 5.99 yards per touch. Marlon Mack is the only real threat to opportunities for Pierce, but he has the same Achilles concerns as Cam Akers. Yes, it’s likely that Houston does a lot more passing than running, but the former Gator has a boat load of potential without the nasty injury history.

For a running back being drafted at the 9th-10th round turn, you could do much worse. Pierce has the potential to be a running back with 250+ touches. He should be getting drafted before Alexander Mattison and James Cook. I’ve got so much faith in this guy. Personally, I drafted him in the 1st Round of a dynasty rookie draft!

Indianapolis Colts – TE Mo Alie-Cox

Mo Alie-Cox improved in a number of categories in 2021 with career highs in targets (45), yards per reception (13.2), and receiving touchdowns (4). His catch rate took a hit, but most people will agree that that was a quarterback issue. There’s a new field general in town and it’s all good for the 5th year tight end in 2022.

With the retirement of Jack Doyle, Alie-Cox won’t be splitting time with another veteran this year. T.Y. Hilton was not brought back to Indianapolis leaving a total of 154 vacated targets between him and Doyle. Also exciting is the newest man to hurl the pigskin for the Colts, Matt Ryan. In each of the last four seasons, Ryan has generated a top 10 fantasy tight end.

Alie-Cox is a large target for his quarterback, standing in at 6’5 and 267 pounds. There are few defensive backs in the league that can manage to cover a man of that stature. Most linebackers don’t measure up to him, either. The man is also athletic. In 2020, he took five receptions for 111 yards against Minnesota. In 2021, he scored twice on just three catches against Miami.

If you don’t land one of the top tight ends in your fantasy draft, or if you want a cheap second option in best ball drafts, Alie-Cox is a superb target for you. He is being drafted as the 17th tight end, if at all. This man is a beast that has yet to be fully awoken. I could easily see him outperforming Cameron Brate and Hunter Henry while being drafted after them.

Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Trevor Lawrence

Urban Meyer did no favors for his first NFL Draft selection. We’ll leave it at that because there is too much promise in this guy to just push him aside. With a Super Bowl-winning coach, a new and talented receiver, and his college buddy toting the rock, the sky is the limit.

Doug Pederson takes over head coaching duties, bringing a sense of confidence and teamwork. Christian Kirk kicked over the first domino in the “year of big wide receiver money,” and brings more talent and depth to a receiving room that needed it. We haven’t seen what Travis Etienne can do at the pro level yet, but we all have high hopes for me. These players are just some of the reasons to restore your faith in the sophomore quarterback this season.

Lawrence had few shiny moments in his rookie campaign. From Weeks 4 through 6, he had a Quarterback Rating over 90 and finished the season with a score of 111.8 against the Colts. He also completed a respectable 67.3% of his passes in the final three games. Through these numbers, we see a young quarterback fighting through a tough situation and doing his best for his team.

Lawrence is being drafted well into the 13th round of drafts as the 21st quarterback off of the board. With all the help and support he has around him now, there’s no reason to think he won’t spring over the likes of Mitch Trubisky and Jameis Winston as the 2022 season rolls on.

Tennessee Titans – WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

An undrafted rookie in 2020, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine became ‘Mr. Necessary’ for the Titans in 2021 due to a number of injuries the team suffered at the wide receiver position. He hauled in 36 catches for 478 yards and four scores. In the last six games of 2021, Westbrook-Ikhine played at least 70% of offensive snaps in five of those games and capped off the regular season with four receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. He’s also one of the few familiar faces in this year’s offense.

The departure of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones left quite a void at the wide receiver position. That void seems to be filled with the addition of Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks. Woods, coming off of an ACL tear, is locked in as the early favorite for targets, but Burks has struggled in training camp due to ailments and transitioning to the pro level. This could force the Titans to put Westbrook-Ikhine on the field in the early stages of the season, and if he continues from where he left off, the team would be less inclined to play Burks ahead of him. Burks is obviously the future for Tennessee at wide receiver, but there’s a window for the third-year pass-catcher to stake his claim as a solid option in the offense for at least this season.

If you want to swing for the fences with your last pick, Westbrook-Ikhine is an excellent choice. He’s got all the upside in the world and if he gets little to no relevant playing time in the first week or two, you can drop him for another rising performer. I can see a world where Westbrook-Ikhine flirts with the likes of Jones and Kirk as a top 40 fantasy receiver in 2022.

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