In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season, last Sunday we saw multiple big-time upsets. This included the Green Bay Packers knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs 27-19. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Free NFL Picks – Week 14

Happy week 14 to all. I cannot believe four Sundays remain in the 2023 NFL season. Each year, it goes by faster and faster. I am proud to say that I finally achieved a perfect 6-0 record for my picks after coming close a few times. Before we dive into this week’s slate of games, when I look back on this season, I will remember it as the year of the backup quarterback.

As the playoff picture stands in the AFC, four of the seven qualifying teams are on second-string signal callers, including the number seven seed Indianapolis Colts, who were forced to turn to Gardner Minshew after Anthony Richardson suffered a Grade 3 AC Joint Sprain. Along with this, the Cleveland Browns will now turn to veteran Joe Flacco after Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder surgery, Dorian Thompson Robinson’s concussion, and the poor play of P.J. Walker.

Teams on Bye: Cardinals, Commanders

So, what does this mean going forward? My one main takeaway is that we will see a shift league-wide in the future in which franchises spend significant money on the backup quarterback position. This is easier said than done with a shortage of solid starting-caliber guys around the league. However, as we have seen, all it takes is one play to derail the season for your team entirely. If you have a starter who has struggled to stay healthy in the past, like Lamar Jackson or Tua Tagovailoa, forking over the dollars for a high-end, QB2 might be the new way to go. Fresh off a 6-0 week, here are the picks.

Carolina Panthers (+6) vs. New Orleans Saints (-6)

The first team eliminated from playoff contention, Carolina dropped to 1-10 after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After scoring midway through the fourth quarter to pull the game to one score, Bryce Young threw an interception late to end the comeback bid. Choosing to part ways with Frank Reich after the game, the Panthers will now turn to interim head coach Chris Tabor.

Limping into the season’s final stretch, the Saints are looking to snap their three-game losing skid. Knocked off by the Detroit Lions a week ago, New Orleans pulled the game to within three. This was after falling behind 21-0 in the first half. With uncertainty surrounding who will start at quarterback on Sunday, Derek Carr left the game in the fourth quarter after suffering a concussion. Reportedly still in the league’s concussion protocol, the veteran quarterback has been permitted to practice on a limited basis. As a result, backup Jamies Winston will start if Carr cannot go. Dennis Allen’s group is still in the hunt for the NFC South.

Nonetheless, despite their struggles offensively, Carolina’s defense is stout, ranking fourth in the league in passing yards per game (180.8) and fifth in total yards per game (317.2). Six points is too big a number for a Saints team that is 2-9-1 against the spread this year.

Pick: Panthers (+6)

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns (-3)

Jacksonville is amid another promising season after capturing their first AFC South division title since 2017, a year ago. The Jaguars received an injury scare in their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain after left tackle Walker Little stepped on his foot. Practicing in a limited fashion this week, he is set to be a game-time decision on Sunday.

Continuing to undergo a quarterback carousel, Joe Flacco is set to make his second straight start for the Browns. Needing a win to stay in the playoff race in the AFC, the team wilted in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Rams. Down 20-19, safety John Johnson III intercepted Flacco and returned it to his opponent’s 24-yard line.

Jacksonville has been stellar on the road this season. However, Lawrence’s health is a significant question mark. In desperate need of a victory, look for Cleveland’s defense to make life difficult on whoever starts at quarterback and carry them to a narrow win.

Pick: Browns (-3)

Seattle Seahawks (+13) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13)

Red hot after their two-game losing streak early on in the season, San Francisco cemented its case as the best team in football a week ago. Thrashing the Philadelphia Eagles 42-19, Brock Purdy made his case for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award. The former seventh-round pick completed 19 of his 27 passes for 314 yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel hauled in four passes for 116 yards. He also scored three times, twice through the air and once on the ground.

Seattle almost played spoiler against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. The franchise scored 35 points, their highest offensive output since Week 3 against the Panthers. Finally healthy along the offensive line after starting 10 different players, one matchup to watch in this one will be in the trenches after the 49ers sacked Geno Smith six times in the previous matchup between these two NFC West rivals.

Could Pete Carroll’s group pull off the road upset as they fight for their season? I am not sure this Seahawks group has what it takes to keep up against a San Francisco team that looks destined to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The 49ers beat Seattle 31-12 in week 12. Expect more of the same in this one.

Pick: 49ers (-13)

Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

Denver saw its five-game winning streak snapped by the Houston Texans. After being one of the best teams in the league at taking care of the football over the past month and a half, Russell Wilson tossed a season-high three interceptions, his highest total since Christmas a year ago. Still in the thick of the AFC playoff race, the Broncos are one game out of the final wild-card spot.

Los Angeles won in ugly fashion against the lowly New England Patriots. Two field goals from kicker Cameron Dicker were all the Chargers needed in a 6-0 victory. Guided by the play of their defense, they sacked Bailey Zappe five times, including two by Khalil Mack, to give the 32-year-old a career-high 15.

Now down to just a 12.7 percent chance to qualify for the postseason, Los Angeles remains a poorly coached team that relies on the play of Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mack to keep them in games. Is this the beginning of the end for Brandon Staley? Take the points and roll with the Broncos.

Pick: Broncos (+2.5)

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (O/U 43)

In the hunt for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, Detroit is deadlocked with the 49ers for the number two seed in the conference. Holding on against the Saints on Sunday, the Lions jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead before holding on for a 33-28 win to advance to 9-3 for the first time since 1962. Once again playing a prominent role in the passing game, rookie tight end Sam Laporta hauled in a career-high nine catches for 140 yards and a touchdown.

Coming out of their bye week, the Bears won for the second time in three weeks. They knocked off the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. Able to survive a sloppy night from Justin Fields, Chicago’s defense forced four turnovers for the second straight game. Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, T.J. Edwards, and Kyler Gordon all had interceptions.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the Lions will play in their first cold-weather game of the season. Temperatures are projected to be in the 30s at kickoff, with wind gusts of 30 mph. As a result, lean on the under in this one.

Pick: Under 43

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins (O/U 46.5)

Miami is closing in on its first AFC East division crown since 2008. The Dolphins routed the Washington Commanders 45-15. Tyreek Hill continued to cement his case to become the first wide receiver in NFL history to win MVP. He hauled in five catches for 157 yards and two scores, his third straight 100-yard game. Hill is leading the league with 1,481 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. This puts him on pace for an NFL-record 2,098 yards, making him the first player in league history to eclipse the 2,000 mark.

Tennessee fell 31-28 to the Indianapolis Colts in overtime. Unable to get Minshew and company off the field late, the Titans allowed the longtime backup to pass for 312 yards and four touchdowns. They now rank 22nd in the NFL in passing yards (230.8) and 16th in points allowed per game (21.3).

Set to have their hands full with Miami’s high-powered passing attack, Tennessee’s struggling secondary will have their hands full against Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In what will likely be a blowout by midway through the third quarter, play the over with the Titans supplying enough points to push the total over the number.

Pick: Over 46.5

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