Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 14

The time is now! The vast majority of fantasy football regular seasons come down to this week, and for the vast majority of them, it’s do or die. Whether you’re in a solid position to move on, desperately need a victory to clinch, or need help in the worst way from three other matchups to sneak in, now is the time to find the edge and secure your spot in the playoffs. This week’s Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week will provide you with just that.

Week 14 features a slew of matchups that you’ll certainly want to start pieces in. Seattle at San Francisco, Buffalo at Kansas City, and Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore are all likely to be fruitful, capped off by Sunday Night Football’s game of the week: Philadelphia at Dallas. These games are some of the week’s highest over/unders, and you won’t go wrong with players in those matchups. What I want to highlight, though, is an under-the-radar matchup that I think you can have confidence in starting your fantasy players. Here is my Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week for Week 14.

Indianapolis Colts vs Cincinnati Bengals

On paper, a duel between Gardner Minshew and Jake Browning doesn’t appear to inspire much confidence, but both backups have actually held their own in their respective starting roles. The Minshew-led Colts are riding the high of a four-game winning streak, and Browning’s Bengals just completed a surprising upset on Monday Night in Jacksonville where they were 10-point underdogs entering the game. Both the Colts and Bengals have shown to be vulnerable on defense, which is why I like this game to produce fantasy goodness. Let’s see how each position breaks down.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew has been a risky fantasy option in most of his starts this year, but in his last two, he has put up at least 250 passing yards and scored twice. This week, he’ll face Cincinnati’s 11th-best matchup against quarterbacks, making him a solid streaming option for owners desperate to replace Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, or Sam Howell. He’s not a must-start player by any stretch, but he’s easily available on most waivers if you need an option. I’d play Minshew over Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Matthew Stafford.

Another widely available streaming option at QB this week is Jake Browning. Coming off a 354-1 game, completing 86% of his passes, and adding 2-22-1 on the ground, Browning is growing in confidence and poise as he looks to take on the middle-of-the-pack Colts’ pass defense. Browning started off slow on Monday Night, being pigeonholed into a dink-and-dunk scheme, but eventually was able to open things up, making good decisions and displaying accuracy with throws down the field. I expect Zac Taylor to let Browning come out firing this Sunday, allowing him to pick up right where he left off. I’d confidently start Browning as a QB2 in Superflex leagues.

Running Backs

Earlier this year, Zack Moss was a revelation when he filled in for Jonathan Taylor. In weeks 2-6, Moss finished as the RB 10, 4, 21, 2, and 9 in half-PPR scoring. Once Taylor returned, however, his usage and fantasy relevance waned dramatically, making him unplayable. He was all but left for dead until the fantasy world got a surprising mid-week update that Taylor injured his thumb and required surgery. Now with him on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Moss steps into the spotlight once again to fill Taylor’s young, quick shoes. I like Moss to put up better numbers than this past week, and I’d start him confidently over Tony Pollard, Kyren Williams, and (sadly) Austin Ekeler.

Many fantasy analysts were out on Joe Mixon last week against the Jaguars, but he and Browning were in lock-step as they surprised us all with outstanding performances. Mixon came out and did what he’s done all season long: be a reliable back on the ground and through the air. He put up 19-68-2, with 6-49 on 7 targets receiving. Watching the game Monday Night as a Mixon owner was a bit of a gut-punch, not because of his 3.6 YPC efficiency, but because of how his backfield mate looked with his expanded opportunities.  I still like Mixon as a high-end RB2 in this matchup, but expectations should be tempered with his percentage of team carries decreasing.

In my opinion, one of the biggest surprises in the Jacksonville game was the amount of work Chase Brown received, and how good he looked with his opportunities. If you followed any Cincinnati beat reporters throughout the week, it came out that the Bengals wanted to get Brown more involved to see what they had in him as their season winds down.

Mixon is under contract for one more year, but they could let him go with a $2.75 million dead cap. It makes sense that the Bengals want to see what their younger guys can do, and Brown is poised to put on a show. Brown is a sneaky sleeper play this week against Indianapolis’ 29th-ranked rushing defense.

Wide Receivers

Indianapolis

One of the main reasons I like Gardner Minshew this week is because he understands what the best path to success is: put the ball in your best player’s hands. For the Colts and Minshew, that’s Michael Pittman Jr. Over the last five games, he’s averaged 12 targets and 9 catches a game! His yardage and touchdown totals haven’t been great, but if you’re in half or full PPR leagues, you’re coming out happy no matter what. I expect for those averages to continue on Sunday, making him a borderline WR1 option this week. I like him better than DeVonta Smith, Courtland Sutton, and Nico Collins.

There was a point this season when Josh Downs was a desirable fantasy asset, but for whatever reason, that ship has sailed. He hasn’t topped five catches or 45 yards in his last four games, and even though I think this is a good matchup across the board, I don’t have faith that Downs can suddenly turn it around. I’d try and steer clear of Downs if possible. Downs can put up some points, but he is unlikely to win you the week. 

If I wanted to take a hail-mary shot on an Indianapolis wide receiver, it might just be Alec Pierce. If Pittman Jr. is the reliable, possession receiver of the bunch, Pierce is the field-stretching big play threat they need. Last week, Pierce took three catches for a hundred yards and a score on six targets. It was his best fantasy performance of the year by far. For me, Pierce is a Gabe Davis-like boom-or-bust option. You could get nothing, or he could top 100 yards again with another score. It’ll take true stones and desperation to play him, but he’s not a terrible option against Cincinnati’s slightly less-than-average pass defense.

Cincinnati

It’s been a wild ride this year if you’ve had Ja’Marr Chase as your WR1. He’s ping-ponged back and forth between good games and bad all season. Coming off two duds, Chase returned to his dominant ways with an 11-149-1 line last week.  I think Browning realized that Minshew’s “keep throwing it to your best players” approach works, and he’ll be more inclined to do so, starting with the Colts on Sunday. Chase is in your lineup regardless, but I’d be pretty excited to start him in this matchup. Look for Chase to get double-digit targets again, and possibly another score.

2023 has certainly been a year to forget for Tee Higgins. With injuries and poor performances abound, Higgins has only had two fantasy-relevant games all season: 8-89-2 in Week 2, and 8-110-0 in Week 9. Beyond that, he’s been under 40 yards receiving in five of the other six games he’s played this year.

I must be a glutton for punishment because I’m willing to throw Higgins right back out there in this mostly favorable matchup. With another full week of practice with Browning, and another week removed from his hamstring and ankle issues, he is a viable option to start. He undoubtedly comes with risk, but I’d consider starting him over Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and his WR2 counterpart, Josh Downs.

Tyler Boyd is the last fantasy-relevant option at the wide receiver position for the Bengals, but even that utterance is weak. Boyd’s value is at an all-time high when one of Chase or Higgins is out, but this Sunday doesn’t appear as though that’ll be the case. Higgins was able to play through the entire game, including overtime, this past week and there were no reports that he suffered a setback. If Chase and Higgins are in, then Boyd is out. Similar to Downs, if you need some points, Boyd can do that for you, but he won’t win you a week. He’s really only viable in PPR formats.

Tight Ends

The Indianapolis Colts tight end options are a hodgepodge of mediocrity if I’ve ever seen it. Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree, Mo Alie-Cox, and Will Mallory all played and split routes throughout the game this past week. Fantasy owners oftentimes are hesitant to start unproven TE options, even when they’re the primary TE target on their team. The Colts have four possible options, none of which can be said to be the leader of the pack. When you have one position split up so many ways, you can’t trust any one of them. Steer clear and play someone else off waivers, like Isaiah Likely, Gerald Everett, or Cade Otton.

Cincinnati has a similar tight-end circus to navigate. Last week, the snap percentages looked like this: 58% for Drew Sample, 32% for Irv Smith Jr., and 16% for both Tanner Hudson and Mitchell Wilcox. However, it was Hudson who saw the most targets from Browning (4), while the other three had one or none. Over the past few weeks, Hudson has been the primary TE pass-catcher, but I wouldn’t put much stock in that. Just like the Colts, when you have so many options at tight end, you really have no options at tight end. Those same three tight-end options I mentioned earlier I’d play over Hudson and the other Bengals’ TEs.

With the playoffs just days away, now is the time to put together your best lineups. Don’t get cute; don’t get flustered and make wild decisions that could cost you. It’s crunch time! There are a lot of fantasy points to be had this weekend, and hopefully, I’ve navigated you through some of them.  If you need more content, or more advice to set you up for success, be sure to check out ffaceoff.com for the latest rankings, start/sits, and tools to give you that winning edge. Stay up to date by following us @fffaceoff, and me @WSFilosofee on Facebook, X, and Instagram. Good luck with making the playoffs!

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