Free NFL Picks ATS and Best Bets – Week 9 (2023)

In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Happy November to all. Before we get into the picks and a loaded slate of Week 9 games, I want to begin with a few quick thoughts on the NFL’s trade deadline. First off, hats off to the San Francisco 49ers and general manager John Lynch. Currently, amid a three-game losing streak, the team has fallen below the Seattle Seahawks in the race for the NFC West.

Struggling to generate a pass rush under new coordinator Seve Wilks, Chase Young will now line up across from his old Ohio State Buckeyes teammate Nick Bosa while providing a substantial boost. The former number two overall pick has enjoyed a bounce-back season after battling injuries the past two years. He has five sacks and nine QB hits through seven games this season.

Secondly, I can’t believe teams continue to pick up the phone when Howie Roseman calls. Continuing to find value to fill holes and upgrade an already-loaded Philadelphia Eagles roster, the longtime executive acquired safety, Kevin Byard, from the Tennesee Titans. In return, he sent back Terell Edmunds along with 2024 fifth and sixth-round draft picks. A former two-time first-team All-Pro member, the 30-year-old will be a difference-maker down the stretch while helping solidify a banged-up Eagles secondary. Looking to get right after a 2-3-1 record last Sunday, here are the picks.

Miami Dolphins (+2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

In a battle between two of the game’s most dynamic offenses, the Dolphins are set to square off against the Chiefs. The game will be played in Germany at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt for the first time in NFL history. Miami took care of business against their divisional rival, the New England Patriots, a week ago. They cruised to a 31-17 victory. Tua Tagovailoa completed 30 of his 45 passes for 345 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each eclipsed the 100 receiving yard mark.

Kansas City fell to the Denver Broncos for the first time in eight seasons. Unable to get anything going offensively with Patrick Mahomes battling a stomach bug, the two-time NFL MVP was held without a touchdown for the first time in two years. Furthermore, the Chiefs turned the ball over five times, including a muffed punt by Mecole Hardman. Nonetheless, Kansas City has historically rebounded off a loss under Mahomes and Andy Reid. Anytime you get the reigning Super Bowl champions under a field goal, you must take it.

Pick: Chiefs (-2)

Arizona Cardinals (+10) vs. Cleveland Browns (-10)

After choosing to part ways with Joshua Dobbs at the trade deadline, the Cardinals head to Cleveland with significant questions at the quarterback position. Head coach Jonathan Gannon announced on Monday that Pro Bowler Kyler Murray is set to return from a torn ACL. However, the former number-one overall pick was working with the scout team in practice this week. Rookie Clayton Tune will likely make the first start of his NFL career.

Like Arizona, the Browns have also undergone their own problems at quarterback this season. Deshaun Watson has missed most of the last four games with a shoulder injury. This led Cleveland to turn to backup P.J Walker. Guiding Cleveland to two straight victories, Walker struggled in the team’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks a week ago. He tossed two interceptions while also losing a fumble. Nonetheless, Jim Schwartz’s defense is still one of the premier units. Expect them to cause problems and create turnovers against an overmatched Cardinals offense.

Pick: Browns (-10)

Seattle Seahawks (+6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Seattle is set to play its third cross-conference matchup in the last four weeks. Outlasting the Browns in a hard-fought win last Sunday, the Seahawks blew an early 14-point lead. Geno Smith made enough plays late to capture the victory. He found rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a 9-yard touchdown strike with 38 seconds left.

In the conversation for the best team in the NFL, Baltimore took down the Arizona Cardinals in week 8. Led by the play of their outstanding defense, Mike Macdonald’s unit harassed Dobs all afternoon long. They forced two interceptions and a fumble while sacking the University of Tennessee product four times. While Lamar Jackson and company are continuing to roll, expect a close physical battle. All things considered, 6 points is just too high of a number here.

Pick: Seahawks (+6)

Dallas Cowboys (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

One of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries will write another chapter on Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys square off against the Eagles. Both franchises have been among the best four teams in the NFC all season long. Advancing to 5-2 a week ago, Dallas beatdown the Los Angeles Rams in a game that was never close. Dak Prescott threw for touchdown passes, including two to star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Meanwhile, cornerback Daron Bland became the third player since the 1970 merger with three pick-6s in the first seven games of a season. He intercepted Matthew Stafford and brought it back 30 yards for a score to put the group up two scores early on.

The only remaining one-loss team in the NFL, the Eagles hold the best record at 7-1. Coming from behind against the Washington Commanders a week ago, Philadelphia trailed 24-17 in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Jalen Hurts and company were able to claw back and come away with the victory. Highlighted by a Reed Blankenship interception of Sam Howell, the team rattled off three straight touchdown drives. While Philadelphia’s defense is susceptible to the pass, they remain number one in the league against the run. Look for them to shut down the Cowboys’ ground attack, pin their ears back, and get after Prescott.

Pick: Eagles (-3)

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 50.5)

In a rematch of last season’s Divisional Round playoff game, the Bills will look to avenge their loss to the Bengals. Buffalo is set to make its first trip back to Paycor Stadium since Damar Hamlin suffered his tragic injury a year ago. Able to get back on track after suffering back-to-back losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots, Josh Allen and company took care of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. The one-time Second-team All-Pro completed 78 percent of his passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns.

Following their slow start to the season, Cincinnati is finally beginning to look like the team that won two straight AFC North division championships. Largely due to the health of Joe Burrow, the former number one overall pick is finally fully healthy after battling a calf injury he suffered in training camp. Taking down the mighty San Fransisco 49ers on the road a week ago, he threw three touchdown passes while completing 19 straight throws at one point in a 31-17 victory.

This game figures to be a huge test for both groups as they look to solidify their status as AFC contenders. Burrow is no longer hobbled by injury. Play the over with two of the best quarterbacks in the world doing battle.

Pick: Over 50.5

New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 37.5)

Forced to turn to third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito after Tyrod Taylor left with an injury, the Giants lost a head-scratcher to the Jets. The team was clinging to a three-point lead with 24 seconds left in the game. Brian Daboll elected to kick a field goal when faced with fourth-and-1 at the opponent’s 17-yard line. Ultimately missed by kicker Graham Gano, the Jets would then march down the field and tie the game up before winning in overtime.

Making news around league circles this week after an embarrassing loss to the Detroit Lions, the Raiders fired head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler. Furthermore, they also parted ways with offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi. Now, under the guidance of Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas will turn to rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell after benching Jimmy Garoppolo. Both offenses are averaging under 16 points per game amid a flurry of disarray. It’s hard to see a lot of scoring in this one, making the under a safe bet, even with a low total.

Pick: Under 37.5

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