Justin Jefferson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Fantasy Football Outlook
In fantasy football, nailing your draft can be the difference between championship glory and a season of disappointment. As we gear up for the 2023 season, one name stands out among the rest. Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. Because of his historical pace, Jefferson should unquestionably be considered the top wide receiver in fantasy football this year. Rightfully so, according to our 2023 PPR fantasy football rankings, he’s the WR1.
Heading into the 2023 season, Jefferson has numerous reasons to feel optimistic. He will be entering year two of Head Coach Kevin O’Connell’s system. Additionally, his situation has notably improved as the addition of rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison should help draw some attention away. Furthermore, tight end TJ Hockenson has proven to draw defenders inward which allows Jefferson to increase his average depth of target.
As the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, Jefferson continues to set the bar high. Since coming into the NFL he has been on a torrid pace to start his career. Through his first three seasons, Jefferson has over 600 more yards than anyone else in NFL history to start a career. Additionally, one underrated aspect of him is his durability. He has yet to miss a single game in his NFL career. Furthermore, given his outstanding track record, there is every reason to believe that he will continue to produce as he has his first three years in the league.
Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
Currently, Jefferson should be the top wide receiver picked in all formats. In non-superflex leagues, he’s a strong contender for the first overall pick. He’s durable, consistent, productive, and has room to improve. He led the league in red zone targets last season but only managed nine touchdowns. I expect his touchdown totals to rise in 2023. He should look to contend for the triple crown this year, a feat that has only occurred four times since 1966.
Low-level projection: 105 catches, 1400 yards, 7 touchdowns. 287 pts (PPR)
Mid-level projection: 115 catches, 1500 yards, 9 touchdowns. 319 pts (PPR)
High-level projection: 130 catches, 1900 yards, 12 touchdowns. 392 pts (PPR)
It may seem lofty, but it is possible Jefferson becomes the first wide receiver with 2,000 yards in a season in history. Moreover, he was on that pace until the last two weeks of the season where he only saw 10 targets in two games. He finished his season with 1,809 receiving yards and only had 53 over the last two games. At this point, a 2,000-yard season would not surprise anyone coming from Jefferson.
As expected, Jefferson is the WR1 according to our own 2023 fantasy football rankings.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Jefferson should be considered the top dynasty asset in non-Superflex leagues. As previously stated, he is on a record pace to start his career. In Superflex startup leagues he is currently going sixth overall. In standard leagues, he should be going first overall. Quite simply, he is the safest position player in dynasty football leagues.
If you are looking to trade him away or trade for him, his value should be right around three first-round picks. Although, when it comes to players of his caliber I advise to not trade away unless it is a massive overpay. There should be no reason to deal him away as he is great for rebuilding and contending teams. Overall, he should continue to be one of the most valuable dynasty assets for years to come.
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