Keep Trade Cut – Dynasty Fantasy Football (Week 5)

Welcome back to another edition of Keep Trade Cut for your dynasty fantasy football leagues. In this series, we break down a handful of different players who are similarly ranked for dynasty purposes. Each week, we’ll be using a different outside source for dynasty rankings. Today, we’re talking about three young tight ends.

In dynasty fantasy football leagues, a player’s week-to-week viability factors directly into their value across the season. That can lead to volatile valuations from managers and surprising trades involving the assets trending up or down. Weekly during the 2023 season, we’ll look at a trio of players who are valued back to back to back. Each week we’ll use a different source. From those rankings, we’ll discuss whether the three similarly valued players should be considered worth keeping, trading, or “cutting” them. No, you won’t be cutting these players in dynasty leagues, but that’s not the point of this scenario.

For this exercise, the keeper is a player who can sustain their value over this current season and beyond. In other words, the player who should be valued most by managers or potential managers. The player worth trading is a player whose value may be buoyed by unsustainable volume, or holds a lot of value that may be more useful to move along in your team’s makeup. A “cut” in this scenario is a player who is trending down or has an outlook that could change quickly, therefore being seen as the least valuable currently in the trio.

This week, we’re using FantasyCalc. With that, let’s discuss their current TE12, TE13, and TE14 in dynasty leagues.

Keep — Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys)

The keeper coming from this trio of tight ends is Dallas Cowboys starter and rising asset Jake Ferguson. Ferguson has the second most targets on the Cowboys with 25, including a league-high 11 targets inside the red zone for tight ends. He’s turned those targets into six catches and 41 yards while supplying a touchdown through Week 4. Ferguson’s offensive involvement has come along steadily each week, providing seven targets three of the weeks. Notably, an additional four against the New York Jets in Week 2. During that week he scored his only touchdown on the season, providing value even with the diminished looks.

Furthermore, Ferguson should be producing steadily in lineups all year. He has legitimate upside to be the number two receiving for the Cowboys for the duration of his rookie contract.

We’ve seen the Cowboys produce solid fantasy tight ends in years past. Now, Ferguson appears to be the primary pass catcher at the position, ahead of Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot. Those two players have seen a combined seven targets this season. Furthermore, while Ferguson doesn’t play the most snaps in this trio of tight ends, he certainly is seeing the most attention from his quarterback consistently. Finally, he’s a top-10 option at tight end right now and could easily remain so over the next three years or more.

Trade — Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears)

Cole Kmet managers may be on the verge of their best window to sell this asset following Kmet’s TE1 finish this past week against the Denver Broncos. Kmet put together a seven-catch, 85-yard, two-touchdown outing, which has propelled him up to TE3 in PPR formats. Additionally, he had a half-PPR top-10 finish in Week 1. However, he didn’t eclipse 44 yards or five catches in the first three weeks. Currently, he’s ranked as the TE14 in these rankings we’re examining. Overall, managers would be wise to cash on him now if you can receive a package warranting a top 12 tight end option.

Furthermore, Kmet has had his ups and downs in fantasy value over his career. This was clear by three top-5 half-PPR finishes last season, while also providing 10 games where he wouldn’t finish inside the top 12. Kmet, as well as the Chicago Bears offense, have shown marginal growth over the last few years, and a focus on rushing the football. Unfortunately, those circumstances haven’t returned the desired results for Kmet.

Similarly, we may be seeing the same type of situation for the Tennessee Titans Chigoziem Okonkwo. Two talented players who aren’t prioritized in their team’s passing game, but of course can have explosion games due to their abilities.

Some good news for Kmet, he has the highest Consistency Score in the trio with a 1.27 through the first weeks. Additionally, he has time to find value at just 24 years old. He may have to do that somewhere else, but your dynasty team may not have that time to wait or the need to.

Cut — Luke Musgrave (Green Bay Packers)

2023 second-round pick Luke Musgrave has started the year admirably. So far, he has 125 yards on 12 catches while the tight end is yet to reach the end zone for the Green Bay Packers. Recently, Musgrave even provided a six-catch game on eight targets during Week 3. It’s important to remember his opportunity in the offensive game plan came during a part of the year when the Packers had an injured Christian Watson. As well as a limited Aaron Jones in the passing game.

Unfortunately, Musgrave may be a victim of a strong young offense that is finding its identity. Realistically, he could find himself the fourth option long-term with talents like Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed in the receiving room.

Furthermore, the Packers have also displayed an emphasis on rushing the football early in the season with both AJ Dillon and the previously mentioned Jones. Musgrave will hopefully return from his concussion this week and prove his place in the lineup with a healthier Packers lineup. Right now, he is valued as the highest tight end in these rankings. Overall, that may just be a little too hopeful for a player who has stepped up in the absence of others.

Conclusion

Players like Ferguson and Kmet have a better opportunity to be the top receiving options in their team’s offense. However, Musgrave has plenty of youth around him that all should compete and grow together. If you can get TE1 prices for Musgrave right now, it may be worth the capital gain from where you drafted him, or more ideally use him in a package to upgrade your tight end position and go up a tier or two.

In dynasty leagues, the tight end landscape changes very quickly. With that, players can come from any point in the draft to produce at this position. Predicting talent is great, but the most successful tight ends for fantasy are the ones seeing the work every Sunday. Additionally, getting targets with some consistency.

Personally, I believe Musgrave has the most talent of this trio and is even joined by another second-round pick in Kmet. Yet as we sit here heading into Week 5 of the 2023 season, it appears the former fourth-rounder and Day 3 draft pick Ferguson is the player with the most trust from his quarterback and continues to provide for his team week in and week out.

Ferguson is the leader of this group due to his role and the comfort that’s seemingly growing each time they play. He’s been one of Dak Prescott‘s favorite targets and should be a name fantasy managers should take pleasure in starting the next three years, and hopefully even longer.