Miles Sanders Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
This series intends to explore the range of outcomes for polarizing players. Each player discussed will include the context, the hopeful (upside) outcome, and the skeptical (bust) outcome. Today’s player will be the newest running back for the Carolina Panthers, Miles Sanders.
Sanders is a solid running back option in fantasy football. He has the potential to be a top-12 back in the league, but he also has some risk. Let’s break down the range of outcomes for Sanders in your fantasy football leagues this year.
Sanders had his best season in 2022 with Jalen Hurts-led Philidelphia Eagles. However, Sanders signed with Carolina Panthers in free agency. Even before the ink dried opinions have varied greatly on what this would mean for the Panthers and Sanders’ fantasy football outlook. Sanders is currently coming off of Underdog draft boards as the RB20 with an ADP of 63.7.
Fantasy Upside and Ceiling
Sanders is expected to be the bell cow back for the Carolina Panthers. It might not be a flashy landing spot but anywhere a back can dominate touches is a positive for fantasy football. Sanders had a great year with Hurts – it took three years but paid out with an RB15 finish. Additionally, he would have had an even bigger year if Hurts didn’t poach goal-line carries or choose to tuck and run versus check down to Sanders.
In 2019, the season before Hurts became the quarterback of the Eagles, Sanders went 50 of 63 for 509 yards and 3 touchdown receiving with Carson Wentz checking down. Sanders now has Andy Dalton (check the check down box!) or rookie Bryce Young who had 162 career rushing yards (Hurts had 157 in one game last year). Finally, he also has a conversation with new Head Coach Frank Reich about catching more passes.
Hopeful Outcome: RB6-12
Sanders will need to stay healthy and HC Reich will need to live up to their offseason talk. But, Sanders has shown the receiving chops and rushing skills to crack the top-12 rushers if he can handle the volume; roughly 250 carries and 50 receptions. Even with this work though it would be highly unlikely for him to get into the elite group of RB1s.
Fantasy Floor and Downside
The Eagles were one of the best teams in the NFL last year the Panthers weren’t and most likely won’t be this year either. Drafting running backs on weak offenses that struggle to keep the chains moving and, more importantly, won’t sniff the end zone is typically bad practice.
Even with the offensive powerhouse of the Eagles, Sanders was still only able to post a top-15 PPR finish. Sanders only saw stacked boxes on 18% of his rushes (15th lowest according to Next Gen Stats). Now he is playing with a Panthers’ passing game that is so bad the defense will be able to stack the box.
Furthermore, Sanders has also not been a reliable pass catcher since 2019. In fact, he earned PFF’s lowest passing grade for a running back in 2022. His receiving stat line was a paltry 20 of 26 for 78 yards and zero touchdowns. Let’s also not forget incumbent running back Chubba Hubbard who has been a capable fill-in during Christian McCaffrey’s absences the past two years. The “bell cow” role might be more of a committee which would greatly hinder Sander’s upside if he is not the goal line back or the receiving back.
Skeptical Outcome: RB30+
Even if Sanders is in a committee, it would be difficult to imagine him falling completely out of RB3 contention. Yet, his current status as the 20th RB off the board would make this outcome seriously detrimental to drafters. Sanders’ decline in the receiving game also caps his weekly upside.
Fantasy Football Projection: RB12-20
I expect Sanders to do well in the Panthers’ offense. Their lack of receiving options outside might make him a more friendly option to rookie quarterback Bryce Young. I’m not sure if he can clear the 50 reception threshold again but I believe the upside is there. And while the discrepancy in goal-line opportunities between the Eagles and Panthers is concerning. Overall, Sanders should be a larger factor at the goal line without Hurts in the mix.
Fantasy Draft Strategy
At his current ADP, I like taking Sanders as a potential RB1 or RB2 on my redraft teams especially if I have already secured wide receivers with my earlier picks. If I’ve already snagged running backs early or possibly took Travis Kelce or a quarterback early, I would rather pass on Sanders to take upside wide receivers.
Shoring up wide receiver depth is expressly important in leagues that start three wide receivers. Sanders could potentially slip – other drafters might buy into the skeptical outlook. Or, I would shift my aim to later-round running back targets that contain similar upside but with the potential for more risk.
If you enjoyed this or if you would like a specific player’s range of outcomes discussed next, please reach out to me @fftheathomedad.
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