Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets – Raiders vs. Lions

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 8 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in full swing. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business with this week’s player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

This Monday night we have a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Detroit Lions. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Monday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Josh Jacobs Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-140)

Jacobs had an impressive 2022 season, averaging 97.2 rushing yards per game, the most in the NFL. Unfortunately, he has struggled this year. His rushing yards per game average has been nearly cut in half, averaging 48.6 yards per contest. The star running back has totaled 64 or more yards in only two games, averaging 73 rushing yards on 22.5 attempts per contest in those matchups. Furthermore, Jacobs hasn’t been the same explosive running back.

Last year, he averaged 4.86 yards per rushing attempt, 3.23 yards after contact per attempt, and a 4.7% explosive run rate. By comparison, the veteran has averaged only 2.94 yards per rushing attempt, 1.97 yards after contact per attempt, and a 1.7% explosive run rate this season (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Lions have held running backs to only 65.5 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. They have surrendered 67 or fewer yards in all but one game this season.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

With David Montgomery missing his second consecutive game with a rib injury, Gibbs will have the featured workload out of the backfield. In the two games without the veteran running back, the rookie has accounted for 71.8% of the backfield’s rushing attempts, averaging 14 attempts for 74 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt against two talented run defenses in the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens. Thankfully, the Raiders have arguably one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

They have given up 105.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, the eighth-most in the league. Las Vegas has surrendered at least 77 rushing yards to running backs in every game this season. Furthermore, according to Fantasy Points Data, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-highest yards after contact per rushing attempt average (2.63). However, bettors should also consider betting Gibbs over 96.5 rushing and receiving yards as a soft hedge. The rookie running back has averaged 19 touches for 104 yards in the two games without Montgomery, including 20 touches for 126 yards last week.

Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions (-145)

Head coach Josh McDaniels announced on Saturday that Jimmy Garoppolo will start Monday night after missing last week’s game with a back injury. Garoppolo’s return is excellent news for Meyers. The veteran wide receiver has averaged 6.2 receptions per game this season, totaling at least five in all but one contest. That lone exception was the Week 4 matchup that Aidan O’Connell started. More importantly, Meyers has averaged 7.7 receptions per game, totaling at least seven in every contest Garoppolo has started and finished this year.

Meanwhile, the Lions have an outstanding run defense. Unfortunately, their pass defense isn’t up to par. They have surrendered 94 receptions to wide receivers this season, the 12th-most in the NFL. More importantly, Meyers will spend most of the game matched against Jerry Jacobs (per PFF). The third-year cornerback has been targeted 6.7 times per game this year, allowing a 65% completion rate. Meyers is arguably Garoppolo’s favorite target. He should hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.

Sam LaPorta Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

The former Iowa star has been the top rookie tight end. LaPorta has averaged 53.9 receiving yards per game, the fifth-most among tight ends this season. More importantly, he has the second-highest target share (19.1%) and target per route run rate (26%) on the team behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (per Fantasy Points Data). The rookie tight end has had at least 47 receiving yards in all but one game since Week 1, totaling 50 or more in four matchups. Surprisingly, the Raiders defense hasn’t been an easy pass for opposing tight ends.

Las Vegas has held tight ends to 39.6 receiving yards per game. However, that number is slightly misleading. They faced the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4 and Chicago Bears in Week 7. Those two teams threw to their tight ends only six times combined. Meanwhile, LaPorta has at least five targets in all but one game. In the other five contests this season, the Raiders have surrendered 53 receiving yards per game to tight ends. LaPorta should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.

Michael Mayer Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

While Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid get most of the rookie tight end class hype, Mayer has played well lately. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 18.4 receiving yards per game this season, the fourth-most among rookie tight ends. However, he had two targets for two receiving yards over the first four weeks. Yet, Mayer has averaged 4.3 targets and 42.3 receiving yards per game over the past three weeks, totaling 39 or more yards twice.

Thankfully, Garoppolo will start Monday night. In his past two games with the veteran starting, the former Notre Dame star has averaged 3.5 receptions on 4.5 targets for 57 receiving yards per game, totaling 39 or more in both contests. More importantly, the Lions have surrendered 61.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the third-most in the NFL. They have given up 40 or more yards to tight ends in all but one game this season. More aggressive bettors should bet the alternate line of Mayer with 40 or more receiving yards.

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