NFL Week 1 DFS Picks and GPP Stacks to Target

We have finally made it. Happy Week 1 everyone! We’ve got DFS picks for the Sunday main slate for both FanDuel and DraftKings. I will be hosting a livestream Sunday morning at 11 AM EST going over the entire main slate on The FF Faceoff Podcast. Additionally, I will be in the Faceoff Discord answering all your DFS and start/sit questions. Let’s get into it! 

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($9000 FD, $7800 DK)

Jalen Hurts enters Week 1 with the safest floor and arguably the highest ceiling of any fantasy quarterback on the slate. Bill Belichick defenses have struggled against mobile quarterbacks and will have their hands full on Sunday against Hurts. A best bet for cash games and could go under the radar a bit as far as a GPP play. 

Justin Herbert ($8100 FD, $6900 DK) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7700 FD, $6700 DK)

With the highest over/under total of the weekend of 51 points, this game will be what everyone builds their roster construction around. I expect Justin Herbert to be heavily rostered, especially with all the hype surrounding the Chargers offense. Furthermore, Herbert has a great matchup against the Dolphins secondary without Jalen Ramsey. 

Tua Tagovailoa is my preferred play this week. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year before being injured and has the better weapons out of the two. The Chargers fast pace will push the Dolphins tempo and give Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle plenty of opportunity to have a huge afternoon.

Trevor Lawrence ($8000 FD, $6500 DK)

Trevor Lawrence in two games last year against Gus Bradley’s defense: Completed 45/52 pass attempts, 400 yards, and 3 touchdowns. 

Furthermore, the Colts lost pieces on defense including defensive end Yannick Ngakoue and the two starting corners Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers. 

Not to mention, the Jaguars added star wide receiver Calvin Ridley to an offense that really started to click to end the year in 2022. I expect Anthony Richardson to struggle in his first NFL start which could lead to more opportunities for Lawrence to go off on Sunday. 

Deshaun Watson ($7300 FD, $6000 DK)

My favorite GPP play of the weekend…

Deshaun Watson was a top 5 fantasy quarterback before arriving in Cleveland. A lot of people are off on him after his four games last year and what they saw in preseason. The Bengals lost both starting safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates who played the most defensive snaps in 2022. Along with that, Chidobe Awuzie returns in his first game coming off a torn ACL. 

Furthermore, the Browns have won the last five out of six games against Cincinnati. Watson has always had a good rushing floor and adding an opportunity to attack the Bengals secondary could lead to a big Sunday in a great game environment with Joe Burrow and the Bengals. 

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert ($5900 FD, $5400 DK)

The ultimate zig while everyone zags. We know that everyone will be in on the passing attack for both teams but the Chargers have been one of the worst teams against the run since Brandon Staley has been head coach. With Jeff Wilson out and De’Von Achane already nursing a shoulder injury going into the start of the season, it could lead to a big day on the ground for veteran Raheem Mostert.

JK Dobbins ($6500 FD, $6600 DK)

The Texans ranked 32nd last year against the run. Even with DeMeco Ryans taking over as head coach, the defense still needs some work. In a game that has the Ravens as a 10-point favorite, JK Dobbins could feast in a positive gamescript. Overall, Dobbins flashed last year and is finally healthy.  

Samaje Perine ($6000 FD, $5100 DK)

One of Sean Payton’s first moves as the Broncos head coach was to get Samaje Perine in free agency. Javonte Williams is coming off a torn ACL and even though they are claiming he is healthy, he will more than likely be eased into the rotation. This sets up Perine in a smash spot against an abysmal Raiders defense without Chandler Jones. 

Brian Robinson ($6400 FD, $5100 DK)

The Commanders kick off their first game without Dan Snyder and the expectations in Washington are growing big time. The first game for Washington is at home against the Arizona Cardinals, who should end up with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Brian Robinson sets up nicely for the new regime Commanders and the debut of Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator. 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($8800 FD, $8200 DK)

It will be tough to fit Tyreek Hill in lineups but he has been a monster when Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy. With the possibility of left tackle Terron Armstead being out, I expect Tagovailoa to feed Hill early and often to negate the pass rush from Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. 

Mike Williams ($7100 FD, $5700 DK)

The Chargers will push the pace now that Kellen Moore is calling plays on offense. In a matchup that has every chance to be a shootout, I am going with the wide receiver with the highest upside on the Chargers offense. I expect Keenan Allen to get his but knowing that Herbert will push it downfield, Mike Williams should benefit here and can break the slate. 

Elijah Moore ($5700 FD, $3800 DK)

Elijah Moore is way too cheap on both sites. He has been a focal point in the offense during training camp. Additionally, the Bengals secondary should be vulnerable to the big play and Moore should be able to capitalize. All in all, Moore is one of the more electric receivers in the NFL with slate-breaking potential now that he has a viable quarterback. 

Calvin Ridley ($7000 FD, $6500 DK) and Christian Kirk ($6900 FD, $5600 DK)

After this week, I expect Calvin Ridley’s price to bounce up significantly. Before his year-long suspension, he was playing like a top-10 wide receiver with a broken foot. He looked sharp in preseason and now lines up for a great matchup against a brutal-looking Colts secondary on paper. I am expecting to welcome Ridley back on Sunday in a huge way.

Kirk is certainly in play as well if you want to stack with Lawrence. 

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee ($5300 FD, $4800 DK)

This is definitely more of a FanDuel play due to his price. Without Cooper Kupp out, Tyler Higbee could legitimately be the number-one option in the Rams offense against Seattle. 

Hayden Hurst ($5000 FD, $3000 DK)

Another tight end who could benefit from injuries is Hayden Hurst. Both Adam Thielen and DJ Chark have missed practice this week and are questionable to play on Sunday. Outside of rookie Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall, Bryce Young could rely on Hurst as his security blanket in his NFL debut. 

D/ST

Washington Commanders ($4900 FD, $2800 DK)

This is mostly a Draftkings play as the Commanders defense should be chalk/highly owned with their price tag. Going up against the Arizona Cardinals, the Commanders defensive line should have a field day against the Cardinals offensive line and Josh Dobbs. 

Jacksonville Jaguars ($4400 FD), $3500 DK)

I don’t normally like to pay up for defense because of how random it can be but the Jaguars are worth a look in Week 1. In two preseason games, Anthony Richardson completed 44.8% of his passes. Needless to say, he made some splash plays but was also wildly inaccurate at times. However, the Colts offense has question marks at both left and right tackle. All things considered, the Jaguars defense could capitalize on Richardson’s lack of experience and tee off on him Sunday. 

Tennessee Titans ($3800 FD, $2600 DK)

Tennessee is the best cheap option on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week (outside of Commanders on DraftKings) going up against the New Orleans Saints. The over/under is 41 points, one of the lowest of the entire weekend. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. Even if the Titans secondary has some holes, I’m not betting on Derek Carr to be aggressive and take advantage. All things considered, the Titans defense shouldn’t sink your lineups. 

Honorable mention: Falcons ($4500 FD, $3200 DK)

Favorite GPP Game Stacks

Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, Elijah Moore, and Ja’Marr Chase.

Sneaky GPP Play: Atlanta Falcons – Desmond Ridder, Drake London, and Hayden Hurst.

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