Welcome to Week 14 of the 2022 NFL Season. This is the last chance for your fantasy football teams to squeeze into the playoffs or secure a bye week, but not the last chance to offset some of those potential fantasy losses by winning some bets. Albeit not by much, we once again finish in the winning circle going 6-4-1 last week. We are now 54-34-2 (60%) overall going 40-26-2 on sides and 14-8 on totals. I’ve got just five picks this week, let’s get to it with NFL Week 14: Free Picks and Best Bets.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
The Jets beat Buffalo back on November 6th, 20-17 with Zach Wilson under center. Since then they have tossed Wilson to the side and elevated fan and team favorite Mike White. Coinciding with the season, White seemingly has created much cheer and joy amongst the fans and team, with fans overly excited about him and the teammates even making and wearing shirts with his name on hit. I think the lovefest has gone overboard.
White can do no wrong apparently. He has played fairly well and made some good throws but he also has faced two cupcake matchups on paper against the Bears and Vikings defenses. This week it gets much tougher against a Bills defense that is getting healthier even without Von Miller. Jordan Poyer and Tre’Davious White are back and will continue to elevate this defense’s play. The Bills are finally returning home after two straight games in Detroit and then last week in New England.
Ultimately, the Bills mafia will be going nuts and the Bills will be out for revenge. White threw four interceptions when he faced Buffalo last year and I don’t expect much of an improvement.
The Pick: Bills -10 (-110)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Somehow, someway, the Bengals have lost their last five games against the Browns even with Joe Burrow starting in four of those losses. I expect that streak to come to an end come Sunday. If it wasn’t for the ineptitude of the Texans who have been absolutely horrific this season, Deshaun Watson’s 2022 debut probably would have resulted in a loss as he played horribly in his essentially first game in two years. Does he return to 2020 Watson in this game? The chances are slim, especially against an underrated Bengals defense that just limited Patrick Mahomes to under 200 yards passing and just one touchdown.
Cincinnati is fully healthy on offense this week with Joe Mixon back, the revamped offensive line is starting to gel and this team is looking like a Super Bowl-bound squad once again.
The Pick: Bengals -5.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccanneers @ San Francisco 49ers
I liked what I saw out of Brock Purdy last week, not afraid, willing to stand in the pocket, take some hits, and made some good throws. There were also some dangerous ones tossed in there and that is sort of who Purdy is. Streaky.
This is a guy who lost his job a few times at Iowa State. He certainly seems like he runs hot and cold. It’s not a great matchup for Tom Brady against a stout 49ers defense, but the Buccaneers have a tough defense as well that should get pressure on Purdy all game. f you are going to give me 3.5 points with Brady against Purdy, I am going to take it.
The Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (-115)
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith has been Mr. Consistent this season throwing for at least two touchdowns in every game except two. He has 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions. Nobody saw this type of season coming from Smith and the Seahawks.
The Panthers have now turned to Sam Darnold after releasing Baker Mayfield and we saw what he did on Monday night for the Rams. Is Darnold next in line for redemption? Carolina has actually been playing better football winning two of their last three and the Seattle defense isn’t good, but I see a pretty comfortable win for the Seahawks here.
The Pick: Seahawks -3.5 (-115)
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
There is actually some rain in the forecast for this Sunday Night game in Los Angeles, which obviously is a rarity for the area. This 54 total and potential track meet could be slowed down some. The Chargers are expecting to get Mike Williams back on offense and last time he returned even though he departed early in that game, they lost by just a field goal to Kansas City 30-27. This game feels similar and even if the Chargers lose once again, I think they can at least cover the spread.
The Pick: Chargers +3.5 (+100)
Parlay all of these picks together for +2448 odds on Caesars. A $100 bet on that would pay out $2,547.79.
Thanks for reading, all the best this week! You can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.
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