NFL Week 3 — Free NFL Picks ATS and Best Bets (2023)

In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 3 of the NFL season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

There is an old saying in the NFL that the season starts once you hit Thanksgiving. However, it may be time for the Cincinnati Bengals to press the panic button. Knocked off by the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, the reigning AFC North champions fell to 0-2 for the second consecutive year. One of the elite defenses in the league in 2022, Lou Anaromo’s group could not stop Lamar Jackson and the revamped Raven’s offense. They allowed the former MVP to complete 24 of his 33 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. Not to mention, he also ran for 54 more.

However, even more concerning for Zac Taylor and company is the health of Joe Burrow. Appearing to be still suffering the effects of the calf injury he sustained in training camp, the former first-overall pick’s status is still up in the air for the team’s clash with the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. Do they sit their franchise quarterback to protect his long-term health? Or do they play him to salvage their season? Fresh off a 4-2 record in Week 2, here are the picks.

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Atlanta is sitting at 2-0 for the first time since 2017. Fresh off a thrilling 25-24 victory over the Green Bay Packers, the Falcons trailed by 12 points heading into the fourth quarter. However, led by the play of Bijan Robinson, the star rookie running back amassed 172 yards from scrimmage to help his team storm back and come away with the win.

The Lions are looking to get back in the win column after falling to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime. Unable to get off the field down the stretch, they allowed Geno Smith and company to find the end zone on the first possession of the extra frame. Tyler Lockett capped off a nine-play 75-yard drive with a six-yard touchdown reception. Detroit will be looking to get right at home before a divisional game against the Green Bay Packers in week 4. The team has been hit hard by the injury bug of late. With both C. J. Gardner-Johnson and James Houston out for the season, expect the Falcons to keep it close all game.

Pick: Falcons +3.5

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+6.5)

Buffalo bounced back after a disastrous loss on Monday Night Football against the New York Jets. Running away from the Las Vegas Raiders, Josh Allen completed passes to nine different receivers. Meanwhile, the Bills defense was able to stymie the NFL’s reigning rushing yards leader, Josh Jacobs. They held him to -2 yards on nine carries.

Beginning to make headlines across the NFL, Washington is undefeated through two weeks for the first time in over a decade. They stormed back against the Denver Broncos on Sunday after trailing 21-3 in the first half. Second-year running back Brian Robinson found the end zone twice in the game’s final 30 minutes to give Ron Rivera’s group the 35-33 victory. While the Commanders are riding high behind the play of Howell and offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, the team has the pass rush to get after Allen. Nonetheless, look for Buffalo to pull away late.

Pick: Bills -6.5

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. New York Jets (+2.5)

Suddenly sitting in last place in the AFC East, New England is looking to avoid its first 0-3 start in two decades. The team has been hindered by its inconsistent play on offense. Struggling to finish off drives, the Patriots rank 24th in the league in average points per possession (1.58) and 12th in offensive touchdowns per game (2.5).

Without Aaron Rodgers after his season-ending Achilles injury, the Jets were beaten down by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. Zach Wilson struggled mightily once again. The former second-overall pick went just 12/27 passing for 170 yards and three interceptions. In a game likely to be a low-scoring defensive battle, look for Bill Belichick to confuse Wilson with exotic looks and force New York’s offense into multiple turnovers.

Pick: New England -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5)

Philadelphia is still looking to find their footing despite their 2-0 start. They held off the turnover-prone Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football. Leaning on the running game down the stretch, D’Andre Swift amassed 175 yards on 28 carries. This was the most by an Eagles running back since LeSean McCoy in 2013. However, the group once again struggled to stop the pass. They allowed Kirk Cousins to complete 70 percent of his throws while giving up multiple big plays.

Tampa Bay is off to an undefeated start under Baker Mayfield. The 28-year-old has been excellent in his first two games with the team. He has completed 69.1 percent of his throws for 490 yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, he has yet to turn the ball over while only being sacked once. Expect Todd Bowles’s defense to slow down an Eagles offense that has struggled in the absence of Shane Steichen. Five points are too big a number for a Tampa Bay team that is getting no respect from oddsmakers.

Pick: Buccaneers +5

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 44)

Still searching for their first win on the young season, the Texans are looking to rebound after a 31-20 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. C.J. Stroud put together another solid performance after trailing for a large chunk of the game. He amassed 384 yards through the air on 8.2 yards per attempt. The Ohio State product also found his new favorite targets, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, for touchdown scores.

Jacksonville could not get anything going offensively at home against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Failing to find the end zone in a 17-9 loss, Steve Spagnuolo’s group hit and harassed Trevor Lawrence all game long. Chris Jones led the team in pressures in his return to the field while also coming up with a huge sack on fourth down from midfield. The Jaguar’s offense should bounce back at home, with the Texans supplying enough points to push the total over the number.

Pick: Over 44

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 43)

Despite their 26-22 victory over the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football, the Steeler’s offense continues to undergo woes. Held to just nine first downs in the game, Pittsburgh did not run one play in the red zone. As a result, the team now ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play (4.3) and 31st in the NFL in offensive points per game (10.0).

Aiming to put their 38-18 beatdown at the hands of the Bills behind them, the Raiders could not get the run game going against a stout Buffalo front. Nonetheless, more concerning for Las Vegas has been the play of veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The 31-year-old was held to just 185 yards through the air. He has now tossed three interceptions over his last two games. In a matchup between two offenses that are searching for answers, lean on the under in this one.

Pick: Under 43

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