Dynasty Fantasy Football — Keep, Trade, Cut for Week 3

In dynasty fantasy football leagues, a player’s week-to-week viability factors directly into their value across the season. That can lead to volatile valuations from managers and surprising trades involving the assets trending up or down. Weekly during the 2023 season, we’ll look at a trio of players who are valued back to back to back in different dynasty rankings. Each week we’ll use a different source. From those rankings, we’ll discuss whether the three similarly valued players should be considered worth keeping, trading, or “cutting” them. No, you won’t be cutting these players in dynasty leagues, but that’s not the point of this scenario.

For this exercise, the keeper is a player who can sustain their value over this current season and beyond. In other words, the player who should be valued most by managers or potential managers. The player worth trading is a player whose value may be buoyed by unsustainable volume, or holds a lot of value that may be more useful to move along from in your team’s makeup. A “cut” in this scenario is a player who is trending down or has an outlook that could change quickly, therefore being seen as the least valuable asset currently in the trio. This week, let’s discuss the current RB12, RB13, and RB14 according to KeepTradeCut.

Keep

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson is where we start, with him slotting in as our keeper of the trio. Stevenson ranks highest of the three in Consistency Score with a 3.83, as he’s provided two top 24 finishes so far this year. That’s good enough for him to be a top-10 running back option mainly due to his ability in the receiving game and his rushing volume. Stevenson is the oldest of the three players and the highest valued in KTC’s rankings, managers value this running back as the current RB12 in dynasty football leagues.

Stevenson has the highest snap share of the three so far this year, playing on 69.14% of the Patriots snaps, with Ezekiel Elliott accounting for the other 30.86%. The duo led by Stevenson shows that the Patriots trust him rushing and catching, evidenced by his nine-target, nine-catch start to the season.

Last season, Stevenson recorded nine games with at least four catches and would only record less than two catches in a single game. He’s involved in the passing game and leads this trio in average fantasy points per target. Additionally, he’s the highest valued back of the back by the community, his role is established, and he isn’t getting any younger. Overall, Stevenson should be able to provide a couple of top-12 seasons over the next few years, making him worthy of buying into.

Trade

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

Our running back trade candidate early in the season is the current RB14 in KTC rankings, Denver Broncos’ Javonte Williams. His injury and return have been a rollercoaster of value this offseason and now into the season. While he continues to replenish his fantasy reputation, it’ll be wise for dynasty managers to make shrewd decisions about their team’s future if Williams begins to put up numbers or not.

Furthermore, Williams has been outsnapped by Samaje Perine, with Perine accounting for 62 snaps compared to Williams’s 59 in the first two games. Additionally, Sean Payton’s teams have always been built with multiple running back options. Overall, Williams will need to show a significant bump up in his efficiency to have a fantasy football impact warranting his current ranking.

Perine is a good NFL contributor and so is Williams, but he’s only played on 44% of snaps through two games this year. This will be a committee all year, even if it eventually swings towards Williams seeing closer to 60% of snaps. Williams will hopefully see more receiving targets, but he again is behind Perine in that regard already as well (7 catches for Perine compared to Williams 6). Perine’s role may change slightly when Williams is getting his peak share. However, if he’s still so involved in the passing game, it’ll be hard for Williams to return RB1 value.

Finally, Williams has significant competition that the two others on this list aren’t enduring. He isn’t the 20-year-old running back prospect anymore, and unfortunately, he may find it difficult to be anything more than a solid RB3 over the next couple of years. If someone in your league is willing to pay RB14 prices or higher for Williams, it may be a good time to sell. Better yet, wait for a potential big game to receive peak value on him. However, don’t wait too long if it isn’t happening. His value could crater quickly after a few more 8-point weeks in half PPR, meaning he needs to score and be more efficient, right now.

Cut

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

Let’s finish out with a strong early-season performer. I’m talking about Bills starter and current RB13 James Cook as our cut. He came out against the Raiders in Week 2 and had his best NFL performance to date, rushing for 123 yards and totaling 36 more yards on four catches. Additionally, he’s opened the season with back-to-back four-catch games. All in all, this is a positive sign for a team in need of more usage from the backfield.

However, while Cook may find himself as a best ball asset with a PPR floor over the next few years, it’ll be difficult for him to continuously provide that Week 2 production with Josh Allen in the backfield. Having the lead throughout Sunday’s game offered Cook a chance to shine, but 17 carries would be a major surprise from this team’s lead ball carrier most weeks. In 62 career games with the Bills, former starter Devin Singletary carried the ball 17+ times only 11 times. Cook’s Consistency Score of 1.2 is the lowest of the three discussed players as well.

Moving forward, tempering expectations on Cook’s role and output may be necessary. This flush of fantasy value may come in peaks and valleys throughout his career. All things considered, if someone wants to pay RB1 prices to secure Cook, it’s something that should be weighed heavily from managers, today.

Conclusion

There it is, a little peak into why these three running backs are succeeding or stagnating while providing values of borderline RB1’s to the fantasy community. Many of the managers of these players will see them as top running back options. However, in certain cases, it’s hard to see those roles sustaining or continuing with the ever-changing running back landscape. So much needs to go correct for running backs to sustain value from year to year.

Even though these three are young they all feel at different points in their value. Stevenson came in as a Day 3 pick and has turned himself into a consistent option, while Cook has burst onto the fantasy scene and will hopefully continue growing. Meanwhile, an asset like Williams still has loads of potential. However, it’s difficult to continue believing in the investment when the volume isn’t there and he has only shown flashes of his efficient production. No matter what direction you head in regarding selling or acquiring these players, you can be comfortable knowing they’ll all have some sort of NFL role for the next few years. However, just how big those roles are will ultimately depend on that player’s team and offensive scheme.

Dynasty Fantasy Football – Buys, Sells, And Holds: Week 2

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