NFL Week 4 — Free NFL Picks ATS and Best Bets (2023)

In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 4 of the NFL season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

For the Denver Broncos, it was supposed to be different this year. With Nathaniel Hackett run out of town before the end of last season, Sean Payton was viewed as the man to clean up the mess in the Mile High City and bring the franchise back to the postseason for the first time in seven years.

Nonetheless, now sitting at 0-3 and last in the ultra-competitive AFC West, Russell Wilson and company were knocked off by the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in an embarrassing 70-20 rout. Unable to slow down Tua Tagovailoa and the high-powered fins passing attack, the Broncos surrendered 726 yards and ten total touchdowns, the most in an NFL game since the Los Angeles Rams in 1951.

Where does Denver go from here? Well, with two games against Patrick Mahomes and the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in their next five, if the team does not figure something out quickly, they will be destined for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. I think Miami just scored again. Here are the picks.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Riding high behind rookie running back Bijan Robinson and their potent ground attack, the Falcons impressed mightily in their wins over the Carolina Panthers and the Green Bay Packers to kick-start the season. However, the team received a wake-up call against the Detroit Lions a week ago. Atlanta fell 20-6 to Dan Campbell and company while struggling again to get their passing attack going. Desmond Ridder completed only 21 of his 38 throws for 201 yards while being sacked seven times.

Knocked off by the Houston Texans in week 3, nothing seemed to go right for the Jaguars in an embarrassing 37-17 defeat. The team allowed a kickoff return touchdown to a fullback while being stifled offensively due to a pair of turnovers and multiple dropped passes. Nonetheless, this Jacksonville team is too talented not to turn it around. With a strong track record in London games over the years, look for them to rebound.

Pick: Jaguars (-3)

Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns (-3)

Baltimore was fresh off a divisional win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Appearing to have a break lined up for them against an Indianapolis team without Anthony Richardson last Sunday, the Ravens jumped out to a 7-0 lead on a Lamar Jackson rushing touchdown in the first quarter. However, costly mistakes would end up hurting John Harbaugh’s group. They fumbled on four of their final nine offensive plays to end the first half, allowing the Colts to come away with a stunning 22-19 overtime victory.

Without running back Nick Chubb after he was lost for the season due to a knee injury, the Browns answered with an emphatic victory over the Tennesee Titans. Swarming Ryan Tannehill all afternoon long, they sacked the veteran quarterback five times. This included 3.5 from star pass rusher Myles Garrett. Appearing to be one of the league’s elite defensive units under Jim Schwartz, this will be too tall a task for Jackson and a Ravens passing game that is still trying to find its footing.

Pick: Browns (-3)

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Already the number-one offense in the NFL through two weeks, Miami had a historic Sunday. They routed the Broncos 70-20. The point total marked a new record for the franchise while being the most points any NFL team has scored in over 50 years. Led on the ground by their backfield tandem of Raheem Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane, the duo became the first pair of teammates to ever four touchdowns from scrimmage each in the same game.

Back on track after losing to the Jets on Monday Night Football, the Bills have outscored their opponents 75-13 over the last two weeks. Making life miserable for Sam Howell on Sunday, they forced the rookie quarterback into four interceptions while sacking him nine times. Meanwhile, Josh Allen finished 20 of 32 for 218 yards, including a 35-yard touchdown strike to Gabriel Davis. He also added a rushing score on a ten-yard scamper. Buffalo has won each of its last seven home games against the Dolphins. Look for Allen to make enough plays late to give his team the victory in a potential game-of-the-year candidate.

Pick: Bills (-2.5)

Houston Texans (+3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Houston extended its winning streak over the Jaguars to nine straight games on Sunday. Stunning the Jaguars 37-17, C.J. Stroud continued his strong start to the season. The number two overall pick from April’s draft threw for 280 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and no interceptions. Meanwhile, Tank Dell had another monster day. The Houston Cougars product had a team-high seven targets while hauling in five catches for 145 yards and a touchdown.

Pittsburgh has been one of the NFL’s most woeful offenses through the early parts of the season. They entered Week 3 ranking near the bottom of the league in yards, points, and efficiency. This has led offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s playcalling to come under scrutiny. However, the team looked much better in its win over the Raiders. The Steelers eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground for the first time this year.

Furthermore, Kenny Pickett put together one of the best games of his young career. The former 20th overall pick spread the ball around to multiple receivers. He found Calvin Austin III and Pat Freiermuth for touchdown scores. While Pittsburgh has the better roster and a defense capable of making life difficult for Stroud, three points are too big a number for a Texans team that plays hard under new head coach DeMeco Ryans.

Pick: Texans (+3)

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears (O/U 46)

Denver is beginning to close in on complete rebuild mode after its embarrassing 70-20 to the Dolphins. Down both starting safety Justin Simmons and linebacker Frank Clark, the Broncos surrendered 726 yards while becoming the first team to give up five passing and five rushing touchdowns in the same game. They now rank 32nd in the NFL in total yards, 32 in points allowed, 31st against the run, and 28th against the pass.

Following a busy week of distractions at Halas Hall, it was much of the same for the Bears in their 41-10 beatdown at the hands of the Chiefs. They could not get anything going against one of the NFL’s ascending young defenses. Justin Fields completed just 50 percent of his passes for 99 yards and an interception. With both of these teams in complete disarray after blowout losses, 46 points is too high a number.