Prospect Success Indicator: 2022 Tight Ends

Welcome to the first annual Tight End Prospect Success Indicator Report!

What is the Prospect Success Indicator?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the noise and biases and increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to the historical average of a top-five tight end profile. Prospects are then measured against that profile and the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank tells us how close these incoming rookies match to that profile.

FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?

• No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the historical profile of a tight-end who scored 200+ PPR points, which more often than not equated to a top 5 season in fantasy football.

Tables

• The first table below shows that historically ~96% of all tight-end prospects who go on to achieve a top 5 season are in the top 50th percentile and above.
• the second table shows us that tight-ends prospects in the top 5 tiers go on to produce ~95% of the total top 5 seasons in the historical database.

Prospect Profile Terms and Glossary

• PSI Rank: is the percent to which the prospect profile closely matches that of the historical top 5 profile.
  • FAQ: Does 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
    • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 5 tight ends in fantasy football.
• Rookie ADP: ADP data is brought to you by FFFaceoff rookie draft data
• Injury Risk Rating: Injury data is brought to you by Ethan Turner (@ETurnerFF_PT) and his 2022 Rookie Injury Guide
• PSI Player Comp: are the prospect to prospect comps based on size, athleticism, and age-adjusted college production.
• Actionable Takeaway: I encourage you to use this as a data point in your process to help determine who may be over/undervalued in rookie drafts.

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TIER 5 – 50^TH PERCENTILE – 11% HIT RATE

• Charlie Kolar – Iowa St.
  • PSI Rank: 54.3%
  • Rookie ADP: UDFA
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2.0 – Low Risk
  • PSI Profile Comp: Hayden Hurst

TIER 4 – 60^TH PERCENTILE – 8% HIT RATE

• Trey McBride – Colorado St.
  • PSI Rank: 61.1%
  • Rookie ADP: 2.06
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1.5 – Low Risk
  • PSI Profile Comp: Zach Ertz

TIER 3 – 70^TH PERCENTILE – 16% HIT RATE

• Jelani Woods – Virginia
  • PSI Rank: 70.3%
  • Rookie ADP: 3.04
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1.75 – Low Risk
  • PSI Profile Comp: Ed Dickson

TIER 2 – 80^TH PERCENTILE – 24% HIT RATE

• James Mitchell – Virginia Tech
  • PSI Rank: 82.9%
  • Rookie ADP: 3.06
  • Injury Risk Rating: Unknown – but is actively recovering from an ACL tear
  • PSI Profile Comp: Julius Thomas

TIER 1 – 90^TH PERCENTILE – 33% HIT RATE

• Greg Dulcich – UCLA
  • PSI Rank: 91.2%
  • Rookie ADP: 3.03
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1.25 – Low Risk
  • PSI Profile Comp: Austin Hooper

Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @ProfootballPSI. View Miguel’s entire blog here.