Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.
Last week’s article was for the Monday night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, the game was a no-contest after Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. Thanks to so many excellent medical personnel, Hamlin is alert and awake. While it’s reportedly too soon to see if he will ever play football again, Hamlin is alive, and that matters more than anything else.
Thankfully I can start this article with fabulous news. However, let’s transition to the purpose of this article. Before last week’s no-contest, I had back-to-back weeks with a 4-1 record on my prop bets. Now, let’s get down to business for this week.
To end the regular season, we have a Sunday night matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sport bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for this game.
All odds are from DraftKings and Caesars.
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
The future Hall of Famer has averaged 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season. However, Rodgers has thrown two or more touchdowns in only 56.3% of the games this year. Furthermore, he had had only one passing touchdown and three interceptions on 43 passing attempts in the Week 9 matchup against the Lions. More importantly, the Packers haven’t needed Rodgers to win games. During their four-game winning streak, the superstar quarterback has thrown only one touchdown pass in every contest.
Meanwhile, Detroit has surrendered 25 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. However, their defense has picked up their play lately. After giving up seven passing touchdowns over the first month of the year, the Lions have held quarterbacks to only 1.5 passing touchdowns per game over the past 12 contests. Furthermore, quarterbacks have thrown one or fewer passing touchdowns against Detroit in 58.3% of those contests, including three of the past five games. Green Bay’s rushing attack has been excellent lately. They likely won’t need a massive performance from Rodgers to win this game.
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
When the Los Angeles Rams traded Goff to the Lions, many considered his career as a starter to be over. However, the former first-overall pick has had a productive 2022 season. He has averaged 1.8 passing touchdowns per game this year, throwing two or more in 56.3% of the contests. Furthermore, the veteran quarterback has three or more passing touchdowns in 31.3% of the games this season, including two straight. More importantly, Goff has two or more passing touchdowns in five of the past six contests, averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game during that span.
During Green Bay’s winning streak, they have held quarterbacks to only one passing touchdown per game. However, the Packers struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks before then. In the previous seven games, quarterbacks averaged 1.9 passing touchdowns per game against the Packers, throwing two or more in all but one contest. Furthermore, the Packers have given up two or more passing touchdowns in half of the games this season, including last week to the Minnesota Vikings. More importantly, Goff has two passing touchdowns on only 26 pass attempts in the Week 9 matchup against Green Bay. While the Packers have played well defensively lately, the Lions have the firepower needed to score touchdowns.
AJ Dillon to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-200)
Over the first 12 games of the season, the third-year running back had only one touchdown. During that span, Dillon averaged 10.4 rushing attempts per game. By comparison, he averaged 11 rushing attempts per game last season. Meanwhile, the former Boston College star has averaged 13 rushing attempts per game during Green Bay’s four-game winning streak. More importantly, Dillon has six touchdowns over the past five games, scoring at least once in every contest. Furthermore, he has averaged a touchdown once per 10 rushing attempts during the winning streak.
Detroit’s run defense was awful to start the year. Over the first six games this season, the Lions surrendered 129.8 rushing yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. However, they picked up their play after the Week 7 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Over the next eight games, the Lions held running backs to 59.4 rushing yards per game and only three rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, Detroit got destroyed by the Carolina Panthers’ backfield in Week 16, giving up 293 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and 8.2 yards per attempt. Expect Dillon to push his touchdown streak to six straight.
Jamaal Williams Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
One of the top surprises this year has been the play of Williams. The veteran running back had 13 career rushing touchdowns before the season. He currently leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 15. More importantly, the veteran running back is averaging 62.1 rushing yards per game this year, a career-high. Williams has totaled 53 or more rushing yards in 68.8% of the games this season, including last week when he had a career-high 144 against the Chicago Bears. Furthermore, the veteran had 81 rushing yards in the Week 9 matchup against his former team, the fourth-most he’s had in any game this year.
Before Green Bay’s four-game winning streak, their run defense was awful. Over the first 12 games this year, the Packers gave up 127.1 rushing yards per game to running backs, surrendering 100 or more yards in nine contests. Furthermore, they gave up 118 rushing yards to the Detroit backfield in the Week 9 matchup, with Williams accounting for 68.7% of the yards. Meanwhile, the Packers run defense has been better during the four-game winning streak, surrendering only 75.3 rushing yards per game to running backs. However, running backs totaled at least 65 yards in all four contests. Williams is more likely to have over 100 yards in this game than under 53.
Robert Tonyan Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last year the veteran tight end missed half the season with a torn ACL. Thankfully, Tonyan hasn’t missed a game this year. He has averaged 27.6 receiving yards per game this season, slightly up from 2021. The veteran has totaled 29 or more receiving yards in nearly half of the games this year, including last week against the Vikings. Tonyan had 52 receiving yards last week on only three receptions against the NFC North leaders. More importantly, the veteran tight end had 29 receiving yards on three receptions in the Week 9 matchup against Detroit.
In the game earlier this season between these two teams, Green Bay’s tight ends combined for nine receptions on 10 targets and 89 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Lions have given up 811 receiving yards to tight ends this season (50.7 yards per game), the 12th-most in the NFL. More importantly, the 89 receiving yards they gave up to Green Bay’s tight ends in Week 9 was a season-high. More aggressive bettors should consider a small same-game parlay of Tonyan over 29.5 receiving yards and score an anytime touchdown at +475. He scored a touchdown last week, while Detroit has given up three touchdowns to tight ends over the past three weeks.
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