Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 13 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday night we have a matchup between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football

Bailey Zappe Over 0.5 Interceptions (-190)

Patriot fans are more concerned with the team securing Drake Maye via the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft pick than any quarterback on their current roster. Zappe replaced Mac Jones last week and got his first start of the season. The second-year quarterback struggled but didn’t have a turnover in the loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. However, he has five interceptions in nine career games. Furthermore, Zappe threw a pick in the previous two games before last week despite having only 21 combined pass attempts.

Fortunately for bettors, the second-year player faces a Pittsburgh defense that makes life Hell for opposing quarterbacks. They have the 12th-most sacks this season (34). More importantly, the Steelers have 12 interceptions, the fifth-most in the NFL. Pittsburgh didn’t have an interception against Kyler Murray last week. However, they recorded at least one interception in 75% of their games this year, including seven straight before last week’s matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

Mitch Trubisky Under 181.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Kenny Pickett suffered a high-ankle sprain in the Week 13 loss, forcing Trubisky to finish the game. The veteran quarterback played 49% of the snaps, totaling 117 passing yards against a poor Arizona Cardinals secondary. More importantly, Trubisky and Pickett combined for only 187 passing yards in the loss. Furthermore, the Steelers’ passing attack has been anemic all season. They have averaged only 179.6 passing yards per game, totaling 160 or fewer in three of their past five contests.

The veteran quarterback has a poor track record as the starter in Pittsburgh. Trubisky has averaged 163.3 passing yards per game in his four career starts with the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Patriots have had an average pass defense most of the year. However, they’ve been outstanding lately. Over their past three contest, New England has held quarterbacks to 199 passing yards per game despite facing Justin Herbert and Gardner Minshew.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Everyone thought the team’s offense this year would improve after Bill O’Brien took over as the offensive coordinator. Yet, New England’s offense has averaged only 12.3 points per game in 2023, the worst in the NFL. Unfortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson suffered a high ankle sprain against the Los Angeles Chargers. The star running back won’t play this week and could be done for the season. Therefore, Elliott will be the featured running back moving forward.

Thankfully, the veteran running back has produced when given the workload. He has averaged 62 rushing yards per game in the three contests with at least 13 attempts this year. Meanwhile, the Steelers run defense has struggled in 2023. Running backs have averaged 101.7 rushing yards per game against Pittsburgh, the ninth-most in the NFL. Last week, the Steelers gave up over 100 rushing yards to James Conner. Expect the Patriots to feature Elliott in this matchup.

Pat Freiermuth Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t met the high expectations everyone had during the preseason. Freiermuth has averaged 29.9 receiving yards per game this year, the lowest average in his career. Yet, the former Penn State star has played better since returning from the hamstring injury. Despite having only one reception for seven receiving yards in his first game back from the injury, Freiermuth has averaged 52 yards per game since returning. Furthermore, he totaled at least 29 receiving yards in two consecutive games.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have held tight ends to the fifth-fewest receiving yards this season. However, they’ve struggled to slow down tight ends lately. Last week, Gerald Everett had four receptions on five targets for 44 receiving yards in the win over the Patriots. Furthermore, tight ends have had 56 or more receiving yards in 44.4% of New England’s past nine games. Freiermuth saw 60% of his targets last week with Mitch Trubisky under center. The veteran should have a solid target share again this week.

Neither Team to Reach 15 Points (+320)

This game is going to be awful and hard to watch. Therefore, I have a special prop bet for bettors – in a race to score 15 points, neither team will reach that total. The Patriots won’t have their top weapon in Rhamondre Stevenson. They have scored fewer than eight points in 41.7% of the games this year, including seven or fewer in three straight. Furthermore, New England hasn’t scored a touchdown in 33.3% of their games, including back-to-back weeks. By comparison, they have scored more than 17 points only twice.

While Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been as awful, the Steelers have averaged only 14.8 points per game on offense this season. They have scored 10 or fewer points in nearly half of the games, including two of the past three weeks. By comparison, the Patriots have averaged only 12.3 points per game on offense. Meanwhile, both teams have a talented defense. More aggressive bettors should bet neither team to score 10 points at +1300.

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