Vacated Targets for 2023 — Fantasy Football Opportunities

Opportunity and talent are two of the factors that matter most in fantasy football. Examining vacated targets from the year prior can be one of the best ways to find new opportunities.

Rookies like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston have plenty of talent. However, we can’t be sure of their opportunity (at least this year). Smith-Njigba is behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Johnston is behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Seattle Seahawks rank fourth and the Los Angeles Charges rank eighth in the least vacated targets from last season. Each of these players no doubt has talent, but the lack of available targets will make it more difficult for them to have an impact.

The four teams that have the most vacated targets from the 2022 season are:

• Houston Texans: 374 targets
• Green Bay Packers: 284 targets
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 238 targets
• Detroit Lions: 223 targets

Houston Texans

The Texans have a bevy of pass catchers competing for targets, with the most notable names including Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell, Noah Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, Dalton Schultz, and Devin Singletary. Nico Collins is the only pass catcher from this list of players that is returning from last year as Metchie was out for the year battling Leukemia.

Our 2023 fantasy football rankings have Collins as the highest-ranked Texan ranked at 146 overall. Personally, I think Collins is the most likely candidate to absorb the most vacated targets. Additionally, he has had some positive camp buzz and averaged 4.2 catches across 14 games his rookie season and 6.6 across 10 games last season. If he continues that positive trend and averages 8-9 targets a game, then he is a value in the 10^th round. Schultz has finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end across the past three years and could be a safety blanket for C.J. Stroud.

Furthermore, Woods is now a full year removed from an ACL injury. However, my excitement about him returning to form is crushed any time I remember he is now 31 years old. Tank Dell and John Metchie seem like good lottery tickets as both players were highly productive in college. Especially Dell, who has already shown his skill may translate to the pros in the Texans’ first preseason game finishing with a line of 5/65/1.

Best opportunity: Nico Collins

Lottery ticket: Tank Dell

Green Bay Packers

The majority of Green Bay’s vacated targets come from Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan, who leave behind 100 and 67 targets, respectively. Christian Watson garnered 66 targets last year and averaged 14.9 yards per target, with 7 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs actually had one more target than Watson but was less effective with his opportunities as he averaged 10.1 yards per target and finished with 3 touchdowns.

It is yet to be seen if Love has a favorite target, but Doubs would have to earn nearly 50% more targets to produce more fantasy points than Watson if they both finished with similar efficiency as in 2022. This makes Watson as the clear pass catcher to own in this offense, represented by his dynasty ranking of 39 overall.

Reed and Luke Musgrave are likely to be role players. I imagine Reed will earn at least the 50 targets left behind by Randall Cobb. Musgrave has Tucker Kraft to compete with in the tight end room. However, I think Musgrave is the best bet to replace the majority of the 67 targets left behind by Tonyan. Reed and Musgrave are good dynasty targets. For fantasy, I would only take them within the last couple of rounds in redraft leagues, if at all.

Best opportunity: Christian Watson

Lottery ticket: Jayden Reed

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Russel Gage’s injury leaves 70 targets up for grabs, and Julio Jones (surprisingly) garnered 43 targets last season. Along with Leonard Fournette’s 83 targets last season, these three players make up for nearly 200 vacated targets.

Behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, David Moore is the most accomplished player on the Buccaneers roster and he missed last season with an injury after averaging 45 targets his first three seasons in the league. I see Moore as a role player, who along with Deven Thompkins, Trey Palmer, and Rakim Jarrett. If I had to choose one wide receiver behind Godwin and Evans I would bet on Jarrett who finished the preseason with 7 catches and 132 yards.

I see the lack of a Tom Brady-less lead offense as a bigger threat to Evans and Godwin than I do any of the other pass-catchers on the team. Cade Otton is intriguing after earning 65 targets as a rookie, despite Cameron Brate. However, I would rather bet on Godwin earning a similar target share as last year (142 targets).

Considering Godwin finished as WR19 last season after coming off an ACL injury last year and averaging his lowest average yards per catch, I feel confident he will be more efficient with his opportunities this year and push for WR1 numbers.

Rachaad White is also very intriguing as he got 58 targets last year and Fournette’s 83 running back targets are up for grabs. White is primed to beat his reception total of 50 last year, but I suspect the Buccaneers and Mayfield pass it to the running back less than they did last year.

Best opportunity: Chris Godwin

Lottery ticket: Cade Otton 

Detroit Lions

The Lions are missing 86 targets from the running back position, 82 targets from the tight end position, and 55 targets from the wide receiver position. Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta are primed to assume the majority of targets vacated by T.J. Hockenson and D’andre Swift. Gibbs was clearly drafted with the intention to be an upgrade from Swift, who got 70 targets across 14 games last season. Additionally, he is consistently compared to Alvin Kamara and it seems like the Lions are planning on giving Gibbs the chance to live up to this comp.

LaPorta seems to have the starting tight end spot locked up. Drafted as the 34^th player this year, nine spots behind Dalton Kincaid (25^th) and one spot above Michael Mayer (35^th). He has proven to be a capable pass catcher in college racking up at least 53 catches and 657 receiving yards each of the past two college seasons. As bright as LaPorta’s future looks, expectations should be kept in check since it is risky to rely on a rookie tight end. I would love to have LaPorta on my team, just not as my TE1.

Amon-Ra St. Brown earned 146 targets last year, which landed him 9^th in total targets. I think St. Brown is a lock to get back to that number this year, and maybe exceed it with Williams out the first six games of the season. But in terms of opportunity, I think St. Brown’s ceiling is slightly capped since he is already demanding so many targets. Justin Jefferson topped the league with 184 targets last year which is ‘only’ 38 more than St. Brown.

After missing the majority of last year due to injury, Jameson Williams is in line to earn more targets, but factoring in his suspension, there is a chance he doesn’t eclipse the 55 targets vacated by wide receivers. Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond are nothing more than complementary pieces that will mix in but that are unlikely to have major roles.

Best opportunity: Jahmyr Gibbs

Lottery ticket: Sam LaPorta

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