Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets

Welcome back to Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets.

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL regular season is in the books. Hopefully, bettors came away with more money in their pockets than they started the week with. However, the grind never stops. So, let’s not waste any time and get down to business.

Thursday we have a matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, sports bettors only care about making money. However, which prop bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for Thursday’s game.

All props and odds are from DraftKings.

Kirk Cousins Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Cousins doesn’t have the best record in prime-time games. The veteran quarterback has also struggled when facing the bright lights. Last year, he faced the Eagles in Week 2 on Monday Night Football. Cousins had 46 pass attempts for 221 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions in that game. It was one of the veteran’s worst performances in his career. However, he did have 20 rushing yards on two attempts, his third-highest total in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have an excellent run defense, thanks to their elite defensive line. However, they have struggled to keep quarterbacks in the pocket. Last year, Philadelphia surrendered 26.4 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, the fourth-most in the NFL. More importantly, Mac Jones had two rushing attempts for 15 yards against the Eagles last week. Cousins isn’t a running quarterback, but he has averaged 6.6 rushing yards per game in his career. He only needs one meaningful scramble to hit the over on this prop bet.

Alexander Mattison Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

When these two teams played last season, Dalvin Cook was the starting running back. Mattison only played 19 snaps in the game, totaling two rushing attempts for eight yards. The former Boise State star has averaged 73 rushing yards per game in his seven career starts. However, he totaled 41 or fewer yards in nearly half of those contests, including only 34 yards on 11 attempts last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Eagles had little trouble slowing down opposing running backs last season. They held running backs to 88.2 rushing yards per game, the 12th-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, the Vikings had only 62 rushing attempts in their matchup last season, with Kirk Cousins and Jalen Reagor accounting for nearly 60% of the rushing total. More importantly, Philadelphia held Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott to 54 rushing yards on 19 attempts in Week 1. Mattison will be lucky to finish with 40 rushing yards in this game.

Jordan Addison to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+200)

Typically, rookie wide receivers don’t make a significant impact in their first career game. However, that wasn’t the case with Jordan Addison. The former USC star had four receptions on six targets for 61 receiving yards and the first touchdown of the year last week against the Buccaneers. He finished third in targets and receptions but second in receiving yards, only behind Justin Jefferson. More importantly, Cousins and the coaching staff trusted Addison. The rookie had a 19.4% target per route run rate in Week 1.

While the former USC star had a strong NFL debut, bettors should have high expectations for Thursday night’s matchup against the Eagles. Last week, Philadelphia gave up two receiving touchdowns to Kendrick Bourne on 11 targets (18.2% TD rate). By comparison, the veteran had a career 5.1% TD rate before last week’s contest. More importantly, James Bradberry will miss this game with a concussion. With Darius Slay likely shadowing Jefferson, expect Addison to have his way and find the end zone.

T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (-166)

TJ Hockenson was a member of the Detroit Lions when the Vikings and Eagles played in Week 2 last season. However, the veteran tight end faced Philadelphia the week before, totaling four receptions on seven targets for 38 receiving yards. Furthermore, the former Iowa star has 14 receptions on 18 targets for 127 receiving yards in his two meetings against the Eagles over the past two years. More importantly, Hockenson was the second-most targeted Viking in Week 1, seeing nine targets, only three fewer than Jefferson.

More importantly, the veteran caught eight of those targets against the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Philadelphia had no answer for Hunter Henry last week, surrendering five receptions on six targets for 56 receiving yards and a touchdown. Furthermore, the Eagles gave up 4.3 receptions per game to tight ends last season, including five to Irv Smith Jr. in the matchup against the Vikings. With the Eagles determined to slow down the superstar wide receiver, Hockenson should become a go-to target in this contest.

Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week was a disaster for anyone with Dallas Goedert on their fantasy team. The veteran tight end had zero receptions on only one target. After the game, head coach Nick Sirianni said the team had to get Goedert the football more often moving forward. Similarly, DeVonta Smith had zero receptions on four targets in Week 1 last year. The following week, he caught all seven targets against the Vikings. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Goedert is the focal point of the game plan this week.

Meanwhile, the veteran tight end had at least 45 receiving yards in 81.8% of the games he played from start to finish last season, totaling 60 or more yards in 63.6% of the contests. More importantly, the former South Dakota State star was near unstoppable in last year’s matchup against the Vikings, totaling five receptions on six targets for 82 receiving yards. Goedert’s 82 receiving yards was the highest total in the game. While that likely won’t happen again Thursday night, the veteran should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.

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