Why You Need to Stop Fading Najee Harris in Fantasy Football
Why You Need to Stop Fading Najee Harris in Fantasy Football
One of the most hated players in fantasy football is, by far, Najee Harris. I’ll be honest: I was one of his biggest haters last season, but that’s when he was going in the first round of fantasy drafts. Now that he’s being drafted in rounds 3-4, it’s safe to say that the Harris hate has gone way too far.
After week 2 of the preseason, where we saw Jaylen Warren break off a 62-yard touchdown run, fantasy football Twitter absolutely tore Harris up. The moment I saw someone comparing Warren to Tony Pollard and explaining how Harris would lose the starting job, I knew something had to be done. With that said, let’s dive into why you need to stop fading Najee Harris in 2023 fantasy football.
College Prospect Profile
Coming out of Alabama, Harris was a fantastic prospect. In his last season, Harris destroyed his competition. Harris finished the year with 1,466 yards and 26 rushing touchdowns in 13 games. As you can tell by his 26 touchdowns, Harris is an elite power back who showed great balance and footwork.
Not only was Harris great as a runner, but he had a 43-425-4 season through the air. For context, Jahmyr Gibbs, who is viewed as an elite pass catcher, had a 44-444-3 stat line at Alabama. Even though Harris wasn’t running many real routes down the field, he showed he had solid hands and was comfortable catching the ball.
Harris also measured in at 6’1” and 232 lbs, the perfect size for a bell-cow back. To top everything off, Harris was selected 24th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers, which gave him elite draft capital.
2021: Rookie Season Recap
Heading into his rookie year, it was clear that Harris would be the bell-cow for the Steelers. Harris thrived in that role, finishing his rookie season with 381 touches. Harris finished the year with 1,200 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 307 attempts. However, he wasn’t incredibly efficient with 3.9 YPC, but his volume made up for it.
Just like at Alabama, Harris was targeted a ton in check-down situations as his quarterback was an immobile Ben Roethlisberger. Harris finished the year with 94 targets and caught 74 of them for 467 yards and three touchdowns.
This incredible amount of volume allowed Harris to crush in fantasy football. Harris was the RB6 on a PPG basis, averaging 17.7 PPG. In year one, almost everything went right for Harris, but there were still some red flags.
For one, Harris didn’t look amazing from a real-life perspective. Harris averaged 3.9 yards per carry (YPC), as I mentioned above, which is not good. Furthermore, having a low YPC often means the player isn’t very good and instead is a product of the volume they’re receiving.
Even though it didn’t look like the volume would disappear, this raises some concerns. For one, if it does, Harris would see a drop-off in production. Even if his volume stays about the same, his upside is inherently lower since he doesn’t have the big play ability like the true superstars.
Why Harris Was a Bust in 2022
After breaking out his rookie year, Harris was being drafted ridiculously high in 2022. According to FantasyPros ADP, in 2022, Harris had an ADP of 6.8. This was clearly way too high for a running back with multiple red flags.
The issue with Harris is that he isn’t an elite running back. Harris is a good power back, but he’s not a very explosive runner. Consequently, this separates him from the elite tier of guys with very high yards-per-touch numbers.
Instead, Harris relies on volume, and his upside is limited due to the fact that he can’t break off 60-yard runs like other top running backs. This doesn’t mean he’s a bad player, but you can’t draft him ahead of guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Travis Kelce.
Despite all these red flags, Harris was consistently drafted in the first round. Just as cautioned, the volume went down for Harris, which resulted in his decline. Harris went from 74 receptions to 41 in the passing game, which hurt him badly. This was mainly due to rookie Kenny Pickett’s horrible play.
With that said, keep in mind that Harris suffered a Lisfranc sprain in the preseason that lingered throughout the year. It was clearly hurting Harris, so I’m willing to give him a break. It’s very encouraging that near the end of the season, Harris averaged 15.5 PPG in his last five games.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Heading into 2023, I’m confident Harris will bounce back. He seems to have fully recovered from his Lisfranc sprain, and this Steelers offense should be much better than last year. Pickett, who was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last season, has been lighting it up in the preseason this year.
This will allow Harris to stay on the field and, more importantly, increase his passing workload. I’m not expecting Harris to return to having 74 receptions, but even if he can get 50-55 catches, this will help him a ton.
The argument that Warren will take over Harris is laughable. Although many don’t like to admit it, draft capital is very significant when deciding who plays. It just doesn’t make sense that Harris, a former first-round pick, will lose important touches to Warren, a UDFA.
While Warren has been efficient when he’s played, his sample size is too small. It’s impossible to say Warren is Pollard 2.0 when he had 77 carries last season. This is because Warren is the clear-cut backup despite many other claims.
Please don’t be scared to draft Harris because of Warren. Warren may take some carries between the 20s, but that’s about it. Harris will be a workhorse, just as he was every year of his career.
However, Warren is certainly someone you can stash in your dynasty leagues. But as far as redraft leagues go, Harris is going to receive an elite workload.
Now that we have a deeper understanding of who Harris is as a player let’s break down where you should draft him in 2023. Right now, I have Harris as my RB10 and 29th overall.
I’m not expecting Harris to score almost 18 PPG, but I think he’ll average around 15-16 PPG instead, making him a great investment. Although Harris let many down last year, I love drafting him as a low-end RB1 in 2023.
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