2021 Fantasy Bust Candidates

Welcome to our latest in our series of collaborative articles from the FFfaceoff team. We will be running these weekly collaborative pieces on different content all off-season long. For this first piece, we’ll be talking about 2021 fantasy bust candidates. Feel free to drop a comment and let us know who you agree or disagree with!

Russell Wilson

QB Seattle Seahawks

Don’t get me wrong, I love Russell Wilson. But the Seahawks are always hellbent on running the ball instead of letting Russ cook. He tailed off during the second half of 2020. From Weeks 7-17, he scored 20 or more fantasy points, only five times. He’s currently QB6 on FantasyPros which is way too high. He’s the most likely to bust for me. – Connor Rigg @ConBonNFL

Davante Adams

WR Green Bay Packers

Davante Adams is an absolute cheat code for fantasy football with Aaron Rodgers. In 14 games he averaged just over 98 yards, eight receptions, and more than one touchdown every game. You’re talking a floor of around 20 PPR points per week. He’s going in the first round of drafts right now, but with this Rodgers drama, there’s no way he returns the value on his pricetag if Rodgers misses time or does end up getting traded. This might be the absolute peak of Adams’ value. – Aaron Schill @aaron_schill

Cam Akers

RB Los Angeles Rams

I know, take a second to pick your chin back up. The fact is that Cam Akers has found himself in a great opportunity going into 2021, but he also holds a huge potential to bust. Right now, Akers will cost a pick at the end of the first or beginning of the second round in redraft leagues. He will be one of the first “unproven” players off the board and that alone holds great risk. And despite his volume, he averaged 25 touches in his final four games and he was only startable twice in terms of fantasy points. If he were to play like his last four games all of next season you would get the RB11 overall (using 2020 scoring), but you’re most likely drafting him AS the RB11. This to me, reeks of consensus expectations being greater than the player’s likely outcome and that’s what leads to “busts”. – Seth Keller @FFtheathomedad

DJ Moore

WR Carolina Panthers

DJ Moore always gets a ton of love around this time of the year. People see the highlight catches in shorts against his own mediocre defense and get really excited saying he’s a WR1. The man wasn’t even the top-scoring receiver on his team last year. Since then, the Panthers have added Terrace Marshall and Christian McCaffrey is back at 100%. Don’t forget, he will be working with a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, who already has chemistry with Robby Anderson from their days together in New York. Don’t get me wrong, I will take Moore all day as my WR2, but if you reach for him as your WR1 or are forced into drafting him as such after going RB/TE early, I wouldn’t be too comfortable. Despite how young and talented he might be, I don’t see much improvement from his WR23 season just a year ago. – Brandon Hamer @DoubleHFantasy1

JK Dobbins

RB Baltimore Ravens

My issues with JK Dobbins are his perceived opportunity and his current ADP. I’ve seen/heard predictions of more than double his rookie workload, which is preposterous on a team with Lamar Jackson as the helm. Dobbins only had 134 carries in 2020 and Mark Ingram leaving only vacates another 72. The Ravens gave Gus Edwards a nice extension, telling us they plan to keep feeding him the ball on a regular basis, too. His ADP is currently in the early to mid-third round, which is far earlier than I’m willing to take a running back that I believe doesn’t get to 200 carries or 900 rushing yards. Regardless of how talented he looks and efficient he was with his touches, the volume is simply not there to justify his ADP. – Benjamin Ditlevson @FFRabbitDad

Kenny Golladay

WR New York Giants

Kenny Golladay finished the 2019 season as the WR9 in PPR formats the last time we saw him on the field for a full season. He did so, however, hauling in just 65 receptions. Meaning he was relying on his 11 touchdowns to reach that top ten fantasy finish. Golladay now joins a Giants team with a plethora of options on the offensive end including Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley, and newly acquired first-round draft pick Kadarius Toney. Golladay relied on his efficiency and 120 target volume in order to produce as a consistent WR1 throughout the 2019 season. A new team, a new offense, and a new quarterback in Daniel Jones will all be hurdles Golladay will have to overcome to produce at a similar level.

Jones ranked in the bottom three in the league in regards to completion to touchdown ratio, and in the bottom 10 in the league in regards to 20+ yard completions and deep-ball completion percentage. Low reception totals, a quarterback who struggles on throws 20+ yards down the field (where Golladay has made a name for himself in years past), and an offense that is loaded with weapons compared to the Detroit Lions are all factors that lead to a higher than average bust percentage for Golladay. – Adam Myers @AdamTMyers

Michael Thomas

WR New Orleans Saints

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Saints WR Michael Thomas currently holds a WR9 ADP (27.0 Overall) in 12 team PPR leagues. Following a catastrophic 2020 season, the fact that Thomas is still going this high is beyond me. Not only did he flash diva off the field tendencies for the time in his career last season, but 2021 will also be the first full season in which Thomas, the 2019 Offensive Player of the Year, will be without Drew Brees. Thomas’ stat line sans Brees isn’t terrible. In 10 games, he’s caught 77 of 96 targets for 923 yards and three touchdowns. Four of those games came last season with Taysom Hill, who many, including myself, believe is Brees’ heir-apparent.

Although Thomas went for 8+ receptions and 84+ yards, including two games with 100+ yards, he failed to score a touchdown in that four-game period with Hill while averaging 16.1 FPPG. That is a terrific per-game average with Hill under center. But will he maintain it for a full 17 game stretch? It is difficult to fathom entering a 2021 season in which the Saints are expected to feature the run more than ever with Hill, Alvin Kamara, and Latavius Murray. Last season, Thomas would have been the PPR WR15 in fantasy points per game at that 16.1 FPPG note. He’s being drafted as the WR9. I am not saying that is bust, but I am saying I’d rather draft Justin Jefferson, Allen Robinson, Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper (the list goes on), over Thomas. All of whom, are also going behind him in current drafts. – Anthony Cervino @TheRealNFLGuru

Justin Jefferson

WR Minnesota Vikings

Okay, the dude is a stud. Certified. But what he did last year is nearly impossible to duplicate. It was the perfect storm of capitalizing on defenses focusing on Adam Thielen, the team having virtually no other pass-catching options, the Vikings defense not keeping games close, and a ridiculous catch rate (70.4%) for the number of targets he saw. I’m not saying he can’t do it again, but now that Irv Smith is the tight end and much more of a pass-catcher than a blocker, significant draft capital spent on the offensive line, as well as $70 million spent on bringing in help for the defense, Kirk (or Kellen) might not need to lean on Jefferson as much. If he’s your guy, get him, but don’t bank on a repeat of last year. – Nic Brown @Nicosaurus31