2023 Fantasy Football All-Bust Team
Fantasy Football All-Bust Team
In fantasy football, a bust is a player who underperforms relative to their average draft position (ADP). The bust label is most often associated with high draft picks that fail to meet expectations. Whether you’re in typical redraft fantasy football leagues or dynasty fantasy football leagues, avoiding players that could potentially bust is imperative to your success. Combing through our fantasy football rankings is an excellent method to keep track of players you might prefer to steer clear of.
There are a few reasons why a player might bust in fantasy football. They may get injured, they may not get as many touches as expected, or they may simply not perform as well as they did in previous seasons.
Now, with the 2023 fantasy football season fast approaching, it’s time to build a roster of players you shouldn’t be drafting. These players all have an extremely high probability to “bust” and finish behind their ADP. With that being said, below is my 2023 All-Bust team based on their current Underdog ADP.
Trevor Lawrence
QB7, ADP: 68.3
Trevor Lawrence is a player I’m lower on than consensus due to the incredible value behind him. The former number-one overall pick has a ton of hype surrounding him after a phenomenal finish to his 2022 season.
Even though Lawrence was the QB8 in total points scored last year, he finished as the QB11 on a PPG basis. Additionally, the argument that Lawrence was an elite quarterback near the end of the season isn’t necessarily true, either. Even then, Lawrence finished as the QB7 on a PPG basis after Week 10.
On the flip side, the Jaguars added veteran wide receiver Calvin Ridley, which should help this passing attack. Personally, I’m not the biggest Ridley fan for 2023 due to all the red flags surrounding his profile. While Ridley will be a good addition to this offense, I don’t expect him to be a superstar that takes Lawrence to the next level.
My main issue with Lawrence is that he’s being drafted near his ceiling. I believe he can easily be surpassed by the players behind him.
Deshaun Watson, the QB8, has finally had time to get back into his groove. In 2020, his last full season, Watson finished as the QB5. Tua Tagovailoa finished higher than Lawrence on a PPG basis last season and still has two of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Lastly, Anthony Richardson has an elite rushing upside, which could allow him to easily surpass Lawrence if things break right for him.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB14, ADP: 41
For my running back as a potential bust candidate of the year, I have rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. There’s no doubt, Gibbs is a great talent. I would typically love to draft a rookie running back, but his price is simply getting way too high for me. Additionally, one main issue I have with Gibbs is his situation. If Gibbs was going to be the three-down workhorse in this Lions offense, I would be all in on him.
Instead, he’ll be playing alongside David Montgomery, who is a very underrated running back. Additionally, Gibbs won’t get the goal-line work. Montgomery is significantly bigger than him, and we saw that the Lions gave the ball to Jamaal Williams instead of D’Andre Swift last year. Simply put, it’s unrealistic to expect Gibbs to be the workhorse in Detroit.
Even though Montgomery had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2022, he still had over 800 rushing yards and 40 catches out of the backfield. Gibbs will provide his value as an elite-level pass catcher. Even though he should catch a ton of passes in this offense next year, Montgomery is a more than serviceable pass catcher who will eat into Gibbs’ work.
Finally, I don’t believe Gibbs’ elite draft capital and being a tremendous pass-catching prospect is going to be enough to overcome these obstacles. In order to meet or surpass his expectations, Gibbs will have to catch 70-80 passes in his rookie year. This is highly unlikely, and I’m not betting on Gibbs to be an extreme outlier.
Calvin Ridley
WR16, ADP: 31.9
Calvin Ridley is a player I was expecting to be drafting a ton of this year due to his incredibly high upside. Much to my surprise, Ridley has become a player I’ve never drafted this off-season.
I expected Ridley to be drafted in the later rounds like Michael Thomas was last year. A player with major red flags but also league-winning upside. Thomas had an ADP of WR48 last season, which made a ton of sense. We all know Thomas didn’t pan out, which makes me even more hesitant to draft Ridley due to the similarities in their profiles.
Even with everything we know, Ridley is being drafted as the WR16 this season on Underdog Fantasy. This is ridiculous due to a multitude of reasons. For one, Ridley is turning 29 this year and hasn’t played a full season of football since 2020.
To make matters worse, the last time Ridley played, his efficiency had a massive drop off. In 2020 Ridley had 91 YPG, which fell to 56.2 YPG in 2021. You can make the argument that Ridley was dealing with a foot injury, but anyway, you look at it; this is not a good sign.
During his time away, Ridley was traded from the Falcons to the Jaguars, which has many people very excited. Even though this is an upgrade for Ridley, he will still have a ton of target competition in this offense. As much as I love Ridley, there’s an extremely high chance he’ll be one of the biggest busts in fantasy football this year.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE12, ADP: 131.6
Out of all the players on this all-bust team, Chigoziem Okonkwo has the lowest expectations. My issue with Okonkwo is that he’s being hyped up as a sleeper after showing a little promise last season. I find it much more likely that Okonkwo is a bust and finishes outside of the top 24 as opposed to cracking the top 12.
The Tennessee Titans’ offense was one of the worst passing offenses in the league last year by far. The team averaged 171.4 yards and 26.8 passing attempts per game. I expect this offense to finish closer to the league average in both of these stats, but no thanks to Okonkwo.
It’s far more likely that the Titan’s former 18th overall pick, Treylon Burks, will take over the former AJ Brown-type role. If that happens, he would dominate the team’s target share. Okonkwo was never an elite prospect and was a 4th Round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Furthermore, this team isn’t overly committed to Okonkwo. The Titans took Josh Whyle, a plus pass catcher, in the 5th round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The two have very similar draft capital, and Whyle could be an above-average pass catcher in his rookie year. Drafting Okonkwo, who may not even be the starter on a below-average passing offense, is a horrible pick.
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